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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 6h

NEW: Russian forces claim to have evacuated over 4,000 Ukrainian civilians from frontline settlements in Donetsk Oblast. Read the full update: isw.pub/OccupationUpdate100826

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 8h

6/ Read the full special report: isw.pub/UkraineDisru...

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 8h

5/ There no basis to assess that Russian forces will be able to take the rest of Donetsk Oblast in any short period of time, as Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to claim, or even to forecast that Russian forces will ever be able to complete their seizure of this region by force.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 8h

4/ This Ukrainian success will force the Russian military to reconstitute and likely fundamentally rethink its approach.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 8h

3/ The Ukrainian counteroffensive known as Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman direction has completely disrupted this Russian plan by inflicting an operational defeat on the northern Russian pincer.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 8h

2/ Russian forces intended to conduct a deep encirclement of the entire Fortress Belt from the Lyman direction in the north and the Dobropillya direction in the southwest, linking up near Barvinkove, Kharkiv Oblast.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 8h

SPECIAL REPORT: Ukrainian forces have defeated the 2026 Russian campaign to seize Donetsk Oblast. 🧵(1/6) Read more: isw.pub/UkraineDisru...

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 20h

6/ A parliamentarian from Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Asaib Ahl al Haq’s (AAH) political wing appeared to downplay the gravity of Zaydi’s reported amendments to the PMF law, which could reflect AAH support for some of Zaydi’s PMF efforts. Read the full report: isw.pub/IranUpdate10...

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 20h

5/ Multiple Shia Coordination Framework members are fighting Zaydi’s attempts to meet US demands about militias. Iraqi media reported that Zaydi and unidentified framework members disagree on many amendments to the draft PMF law, despite Zaydi’s office claiming the govt sent the bill to Parliament.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 20h

4/ Zaydi is trying to assuage US concerns over Iranian-backed Iraqi militias by amending draft legislation to balance between Iran and its Iraqi allies and the US. Qatari-funded, UK-based media reported that Zaydi-affiliated Iraqi federal government officials have drafted amendments to the PMF law.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 20h

3/ The Houthis targeted reported Saudi and international efforts to supply the Yemeni government with materiel to sustain the government’s operations against the Houthis. The Houthi strike on Aden Airport comes amid a recent increase in the scale of Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia since October 5.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 20h

2/ More Key Takeaways The Yemeni govt & partners didn't set sufficient political conditions before initiating recent counteroffensives, hindering their effectiveness. The recent, sudden collapse of Yemeni govt-aligned forces along the frontline in Taiz Governorate indicates a lack of coordination.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 20h

Iran Update, October 7, 2026: Houthi advances in Taiz Governorate demonstrate that the Yemeni government’s recent counteroffensives failed to sufficiently pull Houthi reserves to relieve pressure around Taiz and enable Yemeni government offensive operations in other areas of the country. (1/6)

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 23h

3/ The Kremlin is consolidating strategic logistics assets under Russian state control. Ukrainian forces recently advanced east of Oleksandrivka. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure. Read the full report here: isw.pub/UkrWar100726

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 23h

2/ More Key Takeaways: Recent Russian technological adaptations to jet-powered Geran-type drones allow Russian forces to focus cruise and ballistic missile strikes on a smaller, more specific target set without significantly increasing missile expenditure.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 23h

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, 100726: Russia launched a massive, deadly combined drone & missile strike package across northern, eastern, & western Ukraine on the night of October 6-7, killing & wounding 135+ civilians, including 4+ children. Read the report: isw.pub/UkrWar100726 (1/3)

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

3/ Korean Peninsula Update, October 7, 2026: isw.pub/KoreanPenins...

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

2/ Other Key Takeaway: North Korea has repeatedly indicated that US acceptance of its nuclear status is a prerequisite for renewed dialogue.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

NEW: The United States’ recent de-emphasis of North Korean denuclearization may increase Pyongyang’s willingness to engage in dialogue with Washington, possibly around the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in November. (1/3) Read the full report: isw.pub/KoreanPenins...

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

4/ Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 6, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar100626

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

3/ Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian energy infrastructure overnight on October 5 to 6. Russia launched 137 drones against Ukraine overnight.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

2/ Russia’s recently intensified strike campaign against bridges in major Ukrainian cities has expanded to Zaporizhzhia City. Ukrainian forces recently advanced east of Orikhiv.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

NEW: Russia will significantly increase its purchase of foreign currency and gold between October 7 and November 6, 2026 in an effort to mitigate the effects of declining oil and gas export revenues. Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar100626

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

8/ Iran Update, October 6, 2026: isw.pub/IranUpdate10...

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

7/ The Houthis significantly expanded the scale of their attacks on Saudi military and civilian infrastructure on October 5, likely to compel Saudi Arabia to abandon its support for ongoing Yemeni government counteroffensives.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

6/ Saudi naval and air forces targeted Houthi military and maritime assets on October 5 that the group could use to attack shipping in the Bab al Mandeb Strait, amid the broader Saudi and Yemeni air campaign to degrade Houthi strike capabilities and support Yemeni government-aligned forces.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

5/ A successful Yemeni government counteroffensive in the mountains east of the coastal plain could support Yemeni government-aligned forces’ advances northward on the coastal plain.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

4/ The Houthis may use the current pause in government advances on the coastal plain to deploy more reinforcements to the operational area and strengthen defensive positions north of the frontline.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

3/ A temporary pause in the Yemeni government ground advance provides both the Houthis and the Yemeni government with time to consolidate their combat forces and positions.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

2/ ISW-CTP is adjusting its previous assessment that Houthi forces on the coastal plain are collapsing in light of evidence in the last 24 hours indicating that the Houthis have stopped Yemeni government-aligned advances.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

NEW: The Houthis have, at least for now, prevented further Yemeni government advances northward on the Red Sea coastal plain. (1/8) Read the full update: isw.pub/IranUpdate10...

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

NEW: The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is likely gaining critical insights for future warfare from Russia. The PLA appears particularly concerned about how to conduct mechanized maneuvers in a drone-saturated environment. Read the full report: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...

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Reposted by Institute for the Study of War

Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

NEW: A Russian drone struck a Ukrainian-Moldovan border crossing on the morning of October 5, injuring a Moldovan citizen — the first confirmed Moldovan injury due to Russian drones. (1/6) Read the full report: isw.pub/UkrWar100526

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Reposted by Institute for the Study of War

Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

NEW: The Yemeni government, backed by Saudi air power and international coalition military support, launched an offensive to capture Mokha city and secure the coastline along the Bab al Mandeb Strait on October 4. (1/10) Read the full report: isw.pub/IranUpdate10...

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

10/ Iran Update, October 5, 2026: isw.pub/IranUpdate10...

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

9/ Iran is likely aiming to increase its ability to deter US airstrikes targeting Iranian assets, impose costs on the United States, and preserve strategic initiative in the conflict by prioritizing improvements to its missile capabilities.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

8/ Iran is likely reconstituting and enhancing its ability to target distant US regional military targets and commercial shipping through improvements in missile accuracy, range, speed, and targeting capabilities.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

7/ The Iranian regime appears increasingly concerned that mounting economic pressure could threaten internal stability and is combining its attempts to manage its wartime economy with expanded efforts to deter and prepare to suppress possible unrest.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

6/ Saudi allies in the Mecca Pact are providing military aid to Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Arabia announced on October 5 that Pakistan and Turkey are taking “practical measures” to defend Saudi Arabia pursuant to the Mecca Pact requirements.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

5/ Allied air and intelligence support almost certainly made this offensive possible. Over 100 Saudi aircraft provided air support to Yemeni government-aligned forces during the initial assault, and US intelligence is reportedly supporting the air campaign.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

4/ The Yemeni government will need to secure its own defensible line before its offensive culminates in order to ensure it can repel Houthi attacks combining drones and ground forces, which the Houthis employed in early September.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

3/ Yemeni government-aligned forces will likely stop offensive operations within the next seven to 14 days to rest, resupply, and consolidate their positions to prevent a Houthi counteroffensive.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

2/ Other Key Takeaways: This offensive will likely succeed in capturing Mokha in the short term. Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government likely launched the offensive to accomplish the limited objective of securing the Bab al Mandeb.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

6/ Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 5, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar100526

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

5/ Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast. Russia launched 205 drones against Ukraine overnight.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

4/ Russian State Duma officials weaponized reporting that Estonia is reinforcing its border with Russia to promote a cognitive warfare campaign that frames NATO as “escalating” and provoking conflict with Russia.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

3/ Russia has successfully used jet-powered drones to degrade Ukraine’s railway infrastructure and rolling stock.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

2/ Other Key Takeaways: Russian forces are fielding new drone adaptations intended to maximize damage against Ukrainian infrastructure and frontline areas before Ukraine can implement effective countermeasures at scale.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

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