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Paul Poast

@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
8.5K followers 139 following 1.5K posts

International Relations and Foreign Policy. UChicago Prof. Chicago Council Fellow. WPReview Columnist. Primarily on LinkedIN. www.paulpoast.com

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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
This new paper by @audreyalejandro.bsky.social puts forward an argument that we'll take seriously at the COW war data project. This is especially relevant we thinking about recoding the Non-State and Extra-state war data.
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Looking forward to the start of Quantitative Security!! A key topic we'll discuss is how computation and classic regression fit within the "credibility revolution". My short answer is, "focus on measurement, not method". My longer answer is, "read Achen's classic paper" 👇
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World Politics Review @wpr.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Should the U.S. pull its forces back from the island chain running from Japan through Taiwan and the Philippines—and if it does, must its alliances there go too? @profpaulpoast.bsky.social weighs a report that has sparked heated debate among strategists:
wpr.pub
Rethinking the U.S. Military’s Footprint in East Asia
A new report about America’s military posture in the region has sparked debate over how Washington should best protect its core interests.
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Why is Japan a critical US ally? One short answer: island chains! 🧵
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World Politics Review @wpr.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
A new report urging the U.S. to pull its forces back from East Asia and end its alliances there has been widely condemned. But are the report’s recommendations completely off base? Columnist @profpaulpoast.bsky.social weighs in:
wpr.pub
Rethinking the U.S. Military’s Footprint in East Asia
A new report about America’s military posture in the region has sparked debate over how Washington should best protect its core interests.
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Lots of discussion lately about "island chains". In my latest for @wpr.bsky.social, I both defend and critique the recent @defpriorities.bsky.social s report by @jekavanagh.bsky.social.
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
IR Book of the Week! "The Arms Control Paradox" by Amy J. Nelson. Lots of discussion recently about nuclear arms control, both for its own sake and as a model for AI regulation. "Elimination" is not realistic, but management of expectations (or, more directly, ambiguity & uncertainty) is possible.
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Fewer Americans, regardless of Party affiliation, see China's territorial ambitions as a "critical threat". As for being an "economic threat", the results are largely unchanged (though the percentages were already low). These findings come from recent polling by the @global-affairs.bsky.social
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Below is my syllabus "AI Statement". Reliance on LLMs is incompatible with "cultivating the embrace of geeking out"
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World Politics Review @wpr.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
The U.N. General Assembly has endorsed dropping the 1569 Mercator projection, on which Africa looks about the size of Greenland. Maps have always carried geostrategic weight, columnist @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
wpr.pub
Can a New Map Change the World?
African nations are pushing to abandon the antiquated Mercator projection, drawing attention to the historical and geostrategic significance of maps.
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
In the modern world of GPS, does the appearance of physical maps matter? Yes, because they play a crucial role in shaping how we (including policy makers) think about the world. I explain why in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social www.worldpoliticsreview.com/maps-geopoli...
worldpoliticsreview.com
Can a New Map Change the World?
African nations are pushing to abandon the antiquated Mercator projection, drawing attention to the historical and geostrategic significance of maps.
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Aleksandra Spalinska @alexspalinska.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Thrilled that my book, "Neomedievalism in International Relations: Scattering the International, Elucidating the Empire", has been selected as the IR Book of the Week" by @profpaulpoast.bsky.social! Looking forward to more discussions on medievalism, modernity, the international and empire in IR!
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
IR Book of the Week! "Neomedievalism in International Relations" by @alexspalinska.bsky.social. What's old is new again. Drawing on the work of Hedley Bull, book argues that, from tech firms to militant groups, we could be entering a new, global "Middle Ages"
amazon.com
Neomedievalism in International Relations: Scattering the International, Elucidating the Empire (New International Relations)
Neomedievalism in International Relations: Scattering the International, Elucidating the Empire (New International Relations) - Kindle edition by Spalińska, Aleksandra. Download it once and read it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Use features like bookmarks, note taking and highlighting while reading Neomedievalism in International Relations: Scattering the International, Elucidating the Empire (New International Relations).
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
When did the "War Against Iran" start? 🧵
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Very excited to announce Version 0.1 of the "International Relations Dataset Generator", a fully online successor to the EuGene and NewGene software.
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
The calls for AI regulation and control are growing. Let's just say, I'm skeptical. 🧵
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Sorry Donald, but it's well above 1,000 battlefield deaths. It's a war.
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
For 25 years, the 9/11 attacks have spurred everything from deep reflection to conspiracy theories. It was a defining moment in US and world history That's because it undermined the idea for how the US relates to the world: our oceans can keep us safe from the "dragons" abroad🧵
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World Politics Review @wpr.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
The darkest consequences of 9/11 came from Washington’s decision to wage war on a tactic rather than on specific organizations, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
wpr.pub
The Dark Consequences of 9/11 Are Still With Us
The attack changed how the United States responded to threats, setting in motion wars and policies that continue to reverberate today.
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Twenty five years later, we are living in the dark world that 9/11 created. I explore those consequences in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social
worldpoliticsreview.com
The Dark Consequences of 9/11 Are Still With Us
The attack changed how the United States responded to threats, setting in motion wars and policies that continue to reverberate today.
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
IR Book of the Week! "The Scramble for Europe" by @dimitarbechev.bsky.social. The future of the European Union will not be shaped by the EU (or even the USA). It will be determined by Russia, China, and Turkey. Offers different perspective on Great Power Competition. www.amazon.com/dp/0197781446
amazon.com
The Scramble for Europe: Russia, China, and Turkey Challenging Regional Order: Bechev, Dimitar: 9780197781449: Amazon.com: Books
The Scramble for Europe: Russia, China, and Turkey Challenging Regional Order [Bechev, Dimitar] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. The Scramble for Europe: Russia, China, and Turkey ...
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
25 years after 9/11, countering terrorism remains a priority for Americans. But @global-affairs.bsky.social survey data finds that it is no longer THE priority
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
A COW "Did you know": The Mexican War of Independence demonstrates an "interesting" feature for how the Correlates of War project codes wars.
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
ICYMI: In my latest for @wpr.bsky.social, I offer a primer (drawing largely on the War in Ukraine) on the role of intelligence in international politics. www.worldpoliticsreview.com/trump-intell...
worldpoliticsreview.com
Trump May Not Like His Intelligence Agencies, But He Needs Them
A recent trip to Moscow by the CIA director demonstrates the U.S. Intelligence Community’s important, if unconventional, diplomatic role.
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Intelligence matters in world politics for a simple reason: intentions. 🧵
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World Politics Review @wpr.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
A recent trip to Moscow by the CIA director demonstrates the U.S. Intelligence Community’s important, if unconventional, diplomatic role, columnist @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
wpr.pub
Trump May Not Like His Intelligence Agencies, But He Needs Them
A recent trip to Moscow by the CIA director demonstrates the U.S. Intelligence Community’s important, if unconventional, diplomatic role.
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
"Discerning intentions is difficult in almost any human-to-human interaction. But it’s even more difficult in international politics." This is why intelligence is critical to the operation of international politics, as I explain in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
IR Book of the Week! "Taming the Careerists" by Minju Kim. When it comes to US foreign policy, we focus a lot on Presidents, top-level diplomats, and the close advisers to both. But US foreign policy is also dramatically (and surprisingly, as Kim shows) influenced by career bureaucrats.
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
In light of Trump sending Ratcliffe to Russia to warn Putin about (among other things) incursions into NATO airspace, worth highlighting this June @global-affairs.bsky.social poll which found strong bipartisan support for the US alliance with Europe.
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
What do "Golden Arches Theory" and the "Trump Tower Peace Theory" have in common? You can find out in this @wpr.bsky.social video explainer (based on my recent column)! www.youtube.com/shorts/3xr_b...
youtube.com
Trump Tower Peace Theory DEBUNKED #globalpolitics #trump #iranwar
YouTube video by World Politics Review
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
“Even as the means of fighting war changes, the primary cause and objective of war, territorial control, will not.” That was my thought on the future of warfare, which I shared for this piece in Cheonji Ilbo (South Korea) along with the insights of many others.
newscj.com
[Future of War] Striking Gets Easier, Winning Gets Harder: Experts on What Comes Next
Cheap drones and precision weapons will coexist, not replace each otherAsked what will not change, experts converged on one answer: people(SEOUL — Som Lee, Che
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Here's a Correlates of War "Did You Know" There are over 600 wars recorded in the War Data, with at least 2 wars occurring each year from 1815 to 2007 (and that trend did not stop after 2007).
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World Politics Review @wpr.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Thomas Friedman’s “Golden Arches theory” in the 90s held that no two countries with a McDonald’s had gone to war with one another—until they did. The claim that Donald Trump avoids war where he holds property has met a similar fate, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
wpr.pub
Revisiting the ‘Trump Tower Peace Theory’
The Iran war may have blown a hole in the theory that Trump avoids conflict with countries where he has real estate holdings.
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
There isn't "one weird trick" that will secure peace. 🧵
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World Politics Review @wpr.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
The “Trump Tower peace theory”—the idea that U.S. President Donald Trump avoids conflict with countries hosting one of his properties—had some explanatory power until he launched a war in the Middle East, columnist @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
wpr.pub
Revisiting the ‘Trump Tower Peace Theory’
The Iran war may have blown a hole in the theory that Trump avoids conflict with countries where he has real estate holdings.
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
"Trump Tower Peace Theory" offered a nifty way to explain Trump's foreign policy. But that theory fell apart with the Iran War, as I explain in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social.
worldpoliticsreview.com
Revisiting the ‘Trump Tower Peace Theory’
The Iran war may have blown a hole in the theory that Trump avoids conflict with countries where he has real estate holdings.
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
IR Book of the Week! "The Origins of Great Power Rivalries" by Michael Joseph. The historical context of a threat provides "qualitative inference" about how states should read those demands and whether they point to expansive intentions.
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
How should the US should approach China? For US citizens, the answer depends in no small part on your age. In particular, recent @global-affairs.bsky.social polling finds that the youngest generation surveyed (those between 18 and 29) have the least "hawkish" views.
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Correlates of War "War Data" Pop Quiz: what was the first "inter-state war" since the Napoleonic Wars? (hint: why might it suggest that the "problem of France" was not solved?)
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Excited to receive the authors copy of the new "Handbook on the Politics of International Agreements" (edited by Siniša Vuković & Terrence Hopmann), especially my chapter co-authored with Hope Dancy on Alliance Treaties.
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Scott Wolford @thescottwolford.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Pretty sure @correlatesofwar.bsky.social's war data is in good hands...
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World Politics Review @wpr.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
A world war takes place when at least two separate international conflicts become interconnected, with common belligerents, columnist @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes. Does that describe the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine?
wpr.pub
It’s Time to Talk About a New World War
The conflicts in Iran and Ukraine are increasingly interacting with each other, with the potential to reshape the world order.
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Cheryl Rofer @cherylrofer.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
A Paul Poast Saturday thread! (Saying some things I've thought.)
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
It may not be what many envisioned as "World War III", but the wars in Iran and Ukraine comprise a "world war". 🧵
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
In April, I wrote in @nytimes.com that the the Iran and Ukraine Wars comprised a "world war". As we near the 6 month mark of the Iran War, I revisit...and reconfirm...that argument in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social. Yes, we are witnessing a world war.
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
IR Book of the Week! "We Shall Outlast Them" by Hanna Notte. The "West" has long sought answers to the "Russia Question": can they peacefully co-exist? Putin has essentially answered this question for the West with a resounding "no", which has been to both the West's and Russia's detriment.
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Is fighting Iran worth it? According to @global-affairs.bsky.social polling, the vast majority of Americans (including a sizable minority of Republicans) say "no".
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
One of the upgrades we'll be making to the War Data in the @correlatesofwar.bsky.social is updating the data to the present (it ends in 2007). That leads to a "pop quiz" to test your knowledge of wars and the COW war coding rules Question: Will the 2008 Russo-Georgian War be added to the COW data?
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
"Amateurs study tactics. Professionals focus on logistics" That phrase captures a (perhaps THE) core element of effective warfighting, a lesson that has been consistently downplayed or ignored by Pete Hegseth 🧵
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
The Saudi Arabia-Turkey-Pakistan Mecca Defense Pact is generating A LOT of commentary. Much of that commentary sees the pact as an indictment on US policy in the Middle East, specifically its failures during the War with Iran. I don't see it that way 🧵
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