iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 02/03/2025

The Ducks came out the gate with a good first 5 minutes but the 4th goal from Chicago and then the double penalties really killed the game. This was just not good enough

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 02/03/2025

Overall this game has just not been good enough from the Ducks if they want to “be in the mix”. Yes they are ahead in xG but it is very tight, which should not be the case if the Ducks want to make a push.

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 28/02/2025

The Ducks followed up that up and down 1st with a very good performance in the 2nd period and not only closed the xG gap but as you all know took the lead in the game. Now comes a very high pressure third and the question of if the Ducks continue this type of play

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 28/02/2025

Ducks played a very good first 10ish minutes and looked extremely threatening but then kinda went completely flat offensively in the 2nd half of the period while the Canucks started to find their offensive flow.

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 26/02/2025

Tonight was one of the worst 5v5 performances this team has had in a bit. Just did not generate a lot of dangerous offense and allowed a ton. The only redeeming thing is the PP scored, but this was a game the Ducks deservedly loss

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 09/02/2025

And to that question, even though they have scored, they largely have played poorly

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 09/02/2025

This has been a better 5v5 performance for the Ducks and they have largely limited the Kings from generating good looks. My real question is how do they play in the third? This team has had some very poor thirds from a play perspective in tight games

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 08/02/2025

Also this chart from @allthreezones.bsky.social shows one of the large issues with Cronin’s system with this team. The Ducks are attempting to be a forechecking team, but just don’t have the horses for winning the pucks back. It’s a complete misalignment of roster to strategy

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 05/02/2025

This is interesting because it uses Sportlogiq data, which is a more comprehensive xG model than the public ones. As you can see, it agrees with the public models that from an on ice play perspective, the Ducks have taken a step back this season. Image per @jfreshhockey.bsky.social

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 05/02/2025

These images are from the Athletic’s player poll article. Needless to say this isnt helping Cronin’s reputation www.nytimes.com/athletic/610...

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 26/01/2025

For reference here are their current on ice heat maps per @hockeyviz.com

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 26/01/2025

This was a game that was largely driven by the young guys having strong offensive showings, which is a good sign, along with goaltending for the Ducks and the Preds. People should not confuse the scoreline though with this being a good defensive performance.

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 23/01/2025

Looks like the weird likes from yesterday are not sticking. Also that quote from Mason just shows one of the reasons why he has not been put in a spot to thrive this season.

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 21/01/2025

For fun here is the record through 46 games from this year and last year for the folks that want to look at the results instead of the process. They have 2 more regulation wins and 1 more shootout win to account for 6 more points. The rest of the difference is all overtime/SO losses

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 20/01/2025

Here are the forward lines that have had either McTavish or Zegras on them this season sorted by xGF% per @evolving-hockey.com. There is the caveat of sample size for some of the lines. The two lines that Cronin decided to use per the practice lines are at 38%

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 19/01/2025

With the talent on this team, this type of season should simply be unacceptable. That’s not to say this team should be a contender or a playoff team, but they should be around 50% or have stretches at least above 50%. Chart per @evolving-hockey.com

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 17/01/2025

Looking at the individual 5v5 numbers for the game, the McTavish line was very good while the Lundestrom line and 4th line were around breakeven. The line that gave up more than they got was the Strome line.

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 17/01/2025

That was a much improved 5v5 performance for the Ducks largely driven by them having a very strong push after tying the game in the 3rd period. This was the first time they won the 5v5 xG battle since 12/29. The issue is special teams were extremely poor.

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 16/01/2025

This team is all goaltending. Thats pretty much it

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 15/01/2025

So that was a rough period might be an understatement.

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 12/01/2025

Here are the Ducks' expected goal numbers per @evolving-hockey.com since the break at 5v5 and all situations. Quite simply the play has not been good enough over this 9 game stretch and unsustainable shooting percentages and stellar goaltending have made the record not as bad.

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 10/01/2025

The Ducks have been bad defensively per most public models and now we also know that they have been bad on inner slot shots from more detailed private data. This all checks out. Image from www.thescore.com/news/3165955

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 08/01/2025

And when you look deeper at GAR and xGAR you see that Fowler has vastly improved

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 08/01/2025

On the negative side of things, Vatrano and Strome really struggled without Terry and that goes to show how much he drives that line. Then the long lulls for offensive chances really hurts this team. After the tying goal they really played for the point.

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 08/01/2025

As the numbers show for the night a huge positive is that Gauthier McTavish chemistry that has been burgeoning. Pavel also overall had a strong.

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 06/01/2025

So you can’t do that with Hockeyviz but I have this from moneypuck on a per game and 5 game average level

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 06/01/2025

The Ducks lost the 5v5 xGF% battle to the tune of 36% xGF% and over that 5 game stretch, they had one game above 50% xGF% and had 3 of them below 40%. This stretch has been buoyed by timely scoring and excellent goaltending

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 06/01/2025

They have been better but that’s also because they were league worst so the bar was low. They actually were at their best with the 4 young D men all playing.

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 04/01/2025

Fair point on the injury. I just view the rotation a bit different on the young players especially when you look at this Verbeek quote

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 03/01/2025

I’m just going to post this Verbeek quote from the post Fowler trade presser from the following article by @dereklee27.bsky.social thehockeynews.com/nhl/anaheim-...

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 03/01/2025

The Ducks were very fortunate to win that game. They quite frankly played a pretty lifeless game offensively but were able to find the back of the net. Unlike the Devils game or the Oilers game, there aren’t a lot of great takeaways for me outside of getting the win

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 01/01/2025

That was an interesting game. The Ducks looked really rough in the 1st and without Dostal might have been out of it, but they built their way into the game and at 5v5 played close to even with the Devils. The McTavish line also generated a ton of rush opportunities

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 30/12/2024

Looking for a critique of the game today, it would be the third period yet again. In a tie game, they came out pretty flat for most of the period as reflected in the numbers

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 30/12/2024

I just finished the game and this might be a first this season. Every Duck was above 50% per @hockeyviz.com

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 28/12/2024

The McTavish line was excellent today, which is a very nice development

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 23/12/2024

My big concern from this game is the Ducks yet again have not been able to really generate anything in the 2nd half of the game. The Winnipeg and Columbus games had poor 3rd periods also

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 19/12/2024

Troy Terry has been so good this season. Might even say he’s been #verygood

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 19/12/2024

This was one of the more complete games for the Ducks this season especially at 5v5. The only critique is they did not have the strongest 3rd period ever, which is what happened in Columbus also, but well deserved win for this group

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 18/12/2024

Looking at some of the data for the season and one of the bright spots has to be how the PP has looked in terms of chances. They are generating good looks from the right flan, but it feels like that is a spot where they could improve from a scoring perspective

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 15/12/2024

I was perusing some stats and found the penalty GAR tab on @evolving-hockey.com. We do not appreciate Terry's ability to draw penalties enough. He has drawn 15 of them this season and only taken 1.

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 14/12/2024

The update 11 days later is real bad

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 13/12/2024

This image is from @dereklee27.bsky.social’s latest article and is a Cronin quote. I went back and watched @felix.crashthepond.com’s video on McTavish when he was playing well last year and this analysis just feels so off. He’s at his best when he plays with skill.

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 13/12/2024

Just for fun and yes I know sample size on Helleson

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 13/12/2024

Despite the scoreline, this was not a good game for the Ducks at 5v5. LaCombe was the best defenseman and skater for the Ducks, and somehow he will be scratched in a few games because of the rotation. Yes that is me being facetious but this is the issue with the logjam

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 10/12/2024

Also for some brief good takeaways: -Fowler-Trouba as a pairing looked solid to good. I thought Trouba looked good with his activations and timing in the O zone -Terry was a superstar level talent in that game. He should have had a hat trick and even more points. Chart per @hockeyviz.com

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 10/12/2024

Just wrapped up watching the game and I thought the Ducks played a good game. Some flaws there with them getting stuck in their own zone and having poor stretches, but they lost that game because Montembault was fantastic and Dostal allowed a stinker. Charts per @evolving-hockey.com

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 07/12/2024

Then when you zoom out even more from a macro perspective, he was a better player in Winnipeg from an on ice impact perspective, but his underlying xGAR numbers were not that different. The big thing appears to be just an age related decline, which likely will continue

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 07/12/2024

So that is how he has been from a micro perspective the last three seasons. From a macro perspective, his numbers over those three seasons were pretty poor, with him being more of an offensive play driver than someone helping defensively. Charts from @evolving-hockey.com

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Jake Rudolph @jake.crashthepond.com · 07/12/2024

So after a day to think on and reflect on this trade, I wanted to get out some thoughts with a virtual pen-to-paper session. First I wanted to take a look at what Trouba in a vacuum will bring to this team. Here are his last three seasons of tracked data per @allthreezones.bsky.social.

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