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George Pearkes @peark.es · 17/09/2026

Ghalibaf is an incredible poster, I am in awe.

Alexandre delaigue@adelaigue.bsky.social

Pour ceux qui l’ont loupé

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fry69 @fry69.dev · 17/09/2026

For dumb people, like me (also, thanks Gemini) ->

The post is a piece of satirical macro-finance commentary posted by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (Speaker of the Iranian Parliament) aimed at mocking the US Federal Reserve's interest rate policy.

The underlying point is that central banks cannot solve physical supply shocks or energy chokepoints with monetary policy.

**The Standard Taylor Rule Context**

In monetary economics, John Taylor's original **Taylor Rule** provides a formula for how central banks should set their nominal short-term target interest rate ($i$):

$$$i = r^* + \pi^* + 1.5(\pi - \pi^*) + 0.5(y - y^*)$$ * $i$: Target short-term interest rate set by the central bank. * $r^*$: Neutral real interest rate. * $\pi$: Current rate of inflation. * $\pi^*$: Target rate of inflation (typically 2%). * $(\pi - \pi^*)$: Inflation gap (how far inflation is above or below target). * $(y - y^*)$: Output gap (real GDP output relative to potential capacity).$ $**Breakdown of the Modified "Straits Taylor Rule" Formula** The screenshot modifies the standard formula by introducing two geopolitical energy variables: $$i = r^* + \pi^* + 1.5(\pi - \pi^*) + 0.5(y - y^*) + \alpha(\text{SOH} - \text{SOH}^*) + \beta(\text{BEM} - \text{BEM}^*)$$ * **$\text{SOH} - \text{SOH}^*$**: The disruption gap in the **Strait of Hormuz** (a critical global transit route for oil). * **$\text{BEM} - \text{BEM}^*$**: The disruption gap in **Bab-el-Mandeb** (the Red Sea oil and maritime bottleneck). * **$\alpha, \beta > 0$**: Weight coefficients indicating that shipping disruptions at these chokepoints directly force interest rates higher due to geopolitical energy inflation.$

Context and Key References**

* **"You can't 25bp a chokepoint"**: Central banks routinely adjust interest rates in increments of 25 basis points (0.25%). The text mocks the idea that tweaking interest rates can clear a physical blockade or generate physical oil.
* **"$r^*$ isn't neutral. It's SOH risk premium, and We set it"**: Redefines the theoretical neutral interest rate ($r^*$) as a physical risk premium controlled by those who dictate access to the Strait of Hormuz, rather than central bankers.
* **"Stay unanchored!"**: Sarcastic play on the central bank objective of keeping consumer "inflation expectations anchored". It implies that when physical logistics break down, inflation expectations will naturally become unanchored regardless of interest rate hikes.

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