Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 24/09/2025I'd been delinquent, but I've updated my spreadsheet of special election results. On average, Democrats have done 13 points better than a neutral baseline. docs.google.com/spreadsheets... 17012
Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 24/09/2025Because I use a neutral baseline, you can compare this directly to past cycles—and it's slightly better than the average Democratic overperformance even in 2017–18 (which was 11 points). 2300
