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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 18/12/2025

The Commission proposes a €210bn zero-coupon “reparations loan” for Ukraine: banks holding frozen Russian assets would lend to the Commission, which on-lends to Kyiv. It’s limited-recourse—repaid only if Russia pays reparations, allowing assets to return to the CBR. 4/

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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 18/12/2025

Of course, most frozen Russian assets (€193bn) sit at Euroclear in Belgium. Belgium fears sanctions could collapse—triggering early repayment Euroclear may not afford; that Russia could sue Belgium and recover assets; or that a war settlement may not require full reparations. 5/

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Get Me Zarniwoop @martinmorrey.bsky.social · 19/12/2025

"Threats have been directed at Valérie Urbain, the chief executive of Euroclear" "she asked for Belgian police protection. This was denied and she and other companies executives then hired first a Belgian, then a French security firm to provide bodyguards" www.theguardian.com/world/2025/d...

theguardian.com

Belgian politicians and finance bosses targeted by Russian intelligence over seized assets

Exclusive: Key figures at frozen assets depository among targets of intimidation campaign, say European intelligence agencies

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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 18/12/2025

We think the legal risks are overstated. A strong case would go to arbitration under Belgiums investment treaty with Russia (SCC or UNCITRAL). But Russia has not recognised these tribunals in past cases. Suing Euroclear in a Moscow court instead signals weakness—it can’t recover seized assets. 6/

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