Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 23/04/20264/10 Claim: Oil disruption → military can’t be paid. Assumes a Western financial model. Iran has: Sanctions-era workarounds Barter systems IRGC embedded in the economy This isn’t a normal “payroll stops, system collapses” scenario. 180
Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 23/04/20265/10 Claim: Fuel shortages → immediate unrest → regime falls. Iran has lived with: Rationing Shortages Sanctions Pressure builds. It doesn’t instantly break the system. If anything, external pressure often hardens internal control. 180
Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 23/04/20266/10 The worst take frankly: “Kill the faction that won’t agree.” Iran isn’t two neat factions. It’s overlapping power structures: Clerical Military (including the IRGC) Political Decapitation doesn’t simplify this. It usually escalates it. 180
