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Replies

Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 23/04/2026

3/10 Claim: Iran has about 2 weeks of oil storage → then collapse. Oversimplified to the point of being wrong. Storage isn’t one tank: Onshore storage Offshore storage Floating (tankers) storage Production can be slowed. Flows can be redirected. Painful ≠ terminal.

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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 23/04/2026

4/10 Claim: Oil disruption → military can’t be paid. Assumes a Western financial model. Iran has: Sanctions-era workarounds Barter systems IRGC embedded in the economy This isn’t a normal “payroll stops, system collapses” scenario.

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Ash Oro @ashoro.co.uk · 23/04/2026

5/10 Claim: Fuel shortages → immediate unrest → regime falls. Iran has lived with: Rationing Shortages Sanctions Pressure builds. It doesn’t instantly break the system. If anything, external pressure often hardens internal control.

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