3/7
The key issue is this:
Iran may not need a total blockade anymore.
It only needs to prove it can control passage enough to make shipping operate on Iranian terms.
That means approvals, delays, checkpoints, selective access and toll-like costs.
#Hormuz #Shipping #Oil #Trade #Geopolitics 4/7
That is a huge shift for world trade.
Hormuz normally carries around a quarter of global seaborne oil trade and about a fifth of oil trade.
There are bypass pipelines, but nowhere near enough to replace the strait in full.
#Energy #LNG #Tankers 5/7
And insurance is the hinge.
Pre-crisis war-risk pricing was far lower.
Now quoted pricing is dramatically up, with some reported high-risk quotes reaching extreme levels.
That means even “open” water can remain commercially closed.
#Insurance #Shipping