I think that's how most Republicans are thinking, but I don't think we can discount the possibility that the Midwest may be aligning more right as the most successful sunbelt states trend left. A map where WI, PA, MI, NC go red and GA, AZ, NV go blue with Texas deciding isn't totally crazy right now
Unlike North Carolina or Georgia, Republicans cannot triage Texas. Abandoning Texas would cause a revolt among conservatives (and Trump) and seeing them lose to a guy they see as an out-of-touch woke weirdo from Round Rock would cause an existential crisis.