this is what I haven’t seen the anti-vibe side effectively explain. you can say that sentiment seems to be tracking certain material metrics, but often you still can’t explain why the phenomenon is new
@peark.esI respect this effort but I find it unconvincing. We've *seen* a major price level shock in the US before, during the 1970s. To test what that did to sentiment, we can compare Conference Board consumer confidence data to unemployment/inflation. The result gives a respectable model of confidence. 1/3
