iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 8h

You’re very welcome, I’m glad you found it helpful

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 9h

10/ What would change my concern level? Two things: 1️⃣ If we start seeing secondary cases, or 2️⃣ If we learn the pathogen she died from was altered. That said, I'm not expecting either of those outcomes. We'll learn more in the coming days, and as always, I'll keep you updated.

413010

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 9h

9/ So should you be concerned? Here's what I'm looking at: This is serious, as any lab leak is, but the odds of this turning into a pandemic are really, really low. It’s not very contagious, we have antibiotics that successfully treat it, and health officials seem to be on top of quarantining.

37411

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 9h

8/ We have antibiotics that successfully stop plague in its tracks when it’s diagnosed and treated promptly. If this is confirmed to be pneumonic plague, while it can spread between people, it's not highly contagious. On average, one to three people are infected per case and antibiotics still work.

1574

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 9h

7/ Also, keep in mind that this isn’t a new disease. Bubonic plague, which is caused by the same bacterium as pneumonic plague, occurs naturally in parts of the United States, particularly in the Southwest.

1505

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 9h

6/ Working with plague is not, by itself, cause for concern. That said, Russia has been known to genetically modify infectious diseases and engage in chemical weapon development. So this is always in the back of my mind.

1535

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 9h

5/ Now, why was a Russian scientist working with plague in the first place? Plague is caused by Yersinia pestis, a bacterium that occurs naturally in wildlife in parts of Russia. Russia also has a long history of plague research and public health institutes that study and monitor the disease.

3716

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 9h

4/ There are also reports of a broken test tube and a possible lab accident, but those details come from limited reporting. We still don’t know exactly how she was exposed, what protective equipment she was wearing, or what happened in the lab.

1402

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 9h

3/ Beyond that, the details get pretty fuzzy. It’s suspected that the scientist died from pneumonic plague, but that hasn't been confirmed. Russia is now saying she died from pneumonia, which may be an attempt to tamp down the story.

1451

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 9h

2/What we know: Russian officials have confirmed that a scientist died of plague and that people who may have been exposed are being monitored. This was confirmed by the Moscow Times, an independent Russian news outlet. The scientist may have been infected while working with plague bacteria in a lab

2442

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 9h

1/ Over the weekend, there was a reported case of plague in Russia. I’m seeing a lot of rumors about the event being spread without facts to back it up, so I wanted to jump on here to break down what we do and don’t know about this situation and whether or not you should be concerned.

314864

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 9h

11/ What would change my concern level? Two things: 1️⃣ If we start seeing secondary cases, or 2️⃣ If we learn the pathogen she died from was altered. That said, I'm not expecting either of those outcomes. We'll learn more in the coming days, and as always, I'll keep you updated.

031

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 9h

10/ So should you be concerned? Here's what I'm looking at: This is serious, as any lab leak is, but the odds of this turning into a pandemic are really, really low. It’s not very contagious, we have antibiotics that successfully treat it, and health officials seem to be on top of quarantining.

120

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 9h

9/ We have antibiotics that successfully stop plague in its tracks when it’s diagnosed and treated promptly. If this is confirmed to be pneumonic plague, while it can spread between people, it's not highly contagious. On average, one to three people are infected per case and antibiotics still work.

110

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 9h

8/ Also, keep in mind that this isn’t a new disease. Bubonic plague, which is caused by the same bacterium as pneumonic plague, occurs naturally in parts of the United States, particularly in the Southwest.

110

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 9h

7/ That said, Russia has been known to genetically modify infectious diseases and engage in chemical weapon development. So this is always in the back of my mind.

110

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 9h

6/Now, why was a Russian scientist working with plague? Plague is caused by bacteria that occurs naturally in wildlife in parts of Russia. Russia also has a long history of plague research and public health institutes that monitor the disease. Working with plague isn't, by itself, cause for concern

120

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 9h

120

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 9h

110

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 9h

120

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 9h

111

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

11/ The bottom line is that the benefits continue to outweigh the risks when it comes to the Covid vaccine, especially if you're 65 or older. If you haven't already, now is a great time to book your Covid vaccine. After some bumps in the road, the vaccine should now be widely available.

06813

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

10/ I've also had several people ask about myocarditis complications recently, so I made sure to look into current data on that as well. Myocarditis complications aren't a thing anymore with the Covid-19 vaccine. This is due to increased immunity (from infections and spaced-out vaccines).

2291

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

9/ Now, what about the vaccine risks? Serious complications are very rare. Allergic reactions and Guillain-Barré (maybe) are really the only vaccine-related risks in the data, and they are very, very small. There is also no risk of blood clots from the vaccine.

1221

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

8/ It also lowers the risk of Long Covid because it reduces risk of infection (by a little).

1251

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

7/ Let’s start with the benefits. For adults 65+, Covid vaccination prevents about 1,200 hospitalizations for every 1 million doses. It also lowers the risk of Covid-related blood clots, including strokes, heart attacks, and blood clots in the legs or lungs.

3324

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

6/ So I went digging to get the most current evidence. These estimates aren’t perfect, but they still make clear that the benefits continue to outweigh the risks, especially for those over 65 years old.

1284

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

5/ Ultimately, this comes down to a pretty simple question: Do the benefits of Covid vaccination still outweigh the risks? This is normally a question that would be answered by ACIP, which is the committee that once guided evidence-based U.S. vaccine policy, but they haven't met in a long time.

1272

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

4/ But if she wasn't receiving one of those treatments, I'm disappointed that he didn’t recommend the Covid-19 vaccine for her. People undergoing cancer treatments that weaken the immune system are at higher risk of severe Covid, which makes protection particularly important.

1282

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

3/ If someone recently received a stem cell transplant or CAR-T therapy, delaying vaccination can make sense. Their immune system is heavily suppressed, so the vaccine may not work well. It's generally advised to delay vaccination for at least 3 months after these treatments.

1232

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

2/ Obviously, I’m not part of this person’s clinical care team, and individual treatment plans influence the recommendations care teams give. Many factors could influence this decision. But broadly speaking, this is how I would think about it:

1201

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

1/ Last weekend, I received an email from someone whose friend was being treated for cancer. The doctor advised her friend to get the flu shot, but said to skip the Covid vaccine. So the friend asked me if risks from the Covid vaccine are still a concern.

15819

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

6/ If you live in New York or anywhere east of it, you can sign up here: yourlocalepidemiologistny.substack.com And if you live somewhere else, keep following along. We’re hoping this is the beginning of bringing local YLE coverage to even more communities.

yourlocalepidemiologistny.substack.com

Your Local Epidemiologist: Northeast Edition | Katelyn Jetelina | Substack

Translating public health science & news for the Northeast, so you can take action for your community's health. Click to read Your Local Epidemiologist: Northeast Edition, a Substack publication with ...

291

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

5/ I’m especially excited about the team leading this: Julia Tellerman, a public health professional in Rochester, NY, and Asuka Koda, a rockstar health journalist in Connecticut, will be taking the lead. I’ll be helping behind the scenes as we bring it all together.

1120

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

4/ We're working our tails off to make that happen. The first step is expanding YLE New York into YLE Northeast. It will cover New York and everything east of it, with a weekly disease “weather” report as well as location-specific spotlights on the most important thing to know.

180

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

3/ We’ve already seen how much people want this. YLE New York has grown to 45,000+ subscribers since launching in 2024, and YLE California now reaches 33,000+ readers each week. We also know that 92% of respondents in our annual surveys say they want a YLE newsletter where they live.

190

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

2/ The idea behind YLE has always been to make public health feel local. Just like meteorologists translate complicated weather data into “grab an umbrella” or “prepare for a hurricane,” epidemiologists can help communities understand what the health data means for them.

1100

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

1/ I have some big news to share today: YLE is going regional! 🎉 On October 8, we’re launching YLE Northeast, a new newsletter translating timely public health data into useful, local insights for communities across the region.

1589

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

9/ Now's also the time to mask in crowded indoor spaces, especially if you’re at higher risk or spending time with someone who is. Air filters or even opening windows is also a great way to mitigate spread. If you're sick, stay home if possible.

02612

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

8/ What does that mean for you? Although Covid has peaked, we’re still in a Covid wave. Now is a great time to get vaccinated, especially if you’re high risk.

1267

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

7/ We’re also seeing the impact in Covid deaths. They continue to decline by about 54% each year. If that trend holds, Covid could contribute to around 9,100 deaths this year, less than half the annual number of flu deaths.

1111

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

6/ Moving on to Covid, wastewater, one of our best indicators of community Covid spread, has peaked nationally. A few states in the Midwest are still increasing, but they'll decrease soon too. If this pattern continues, this summer’s peak will be as high as winter’s, but not as high as last summer’s

1103

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

5/ If you take one thing away from this, know that now is the time to get your flu vaccine. Usually, advice is in October (the common saying is “flu before boo”), but for maximum protection, I think that advice will be late this year. Schedule your flu vaccine appointment this week. I am.

2195

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

4/ Some parts of South America also had a particularly severe flu season. Argentina saw its highest levels of flu-like illness in a decade, with test positivity peaking above 45%. So, does all of this mean we’re headed for a bad flu season? Not necessarily. But epis will be keeping a close eye on it

1100

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

3/ The Southern Hemisphere can give us some clues because its flu season happens a few months before ours. But this year, the picture was mixed. Argentina started early, while Australia, New Zealand and Fiji saw later-than-usual surges.

1100

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

2/ The U.S. doesn’t seem to be alone in this unpredictable flu behavior. The UK, Japan and several other Northern Hemisphere countries are also seeing flu increase earlier than expected. We don’t know exactly why yet.

1111

Your Local Epidemiologist @ylepidemiologist.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

1/ Although levels are still low nationally, flu metrics are ticking up, including emergency department visits. This is especially true in the West. That’s unusual because: 1️⃣ It's early (usually starts in Oct or Nov) 2️⃣ Flu typically starts in the Southeast before spreading across the country

14921