iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

yimmy @yimmymcbill.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Does anyone (buzzing in the same circles as me) want to team up for a stats project? Just trying to break out of a funk, maybe try something new, nothing ambitious...

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yimmy @yimmymcbill.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

One must imagine s22 happy

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yimmy @yimmymcbill.bsky.social · 13/06/2026

Code for my NHL position mixture / group comparison model (Cut some stuff I don't want to clean up... again, that stuff is actually important but still). Old write up lives here for now: drydan.github.io/posts-hockey...

github.com

GitHub - drydan/nhl-positions

Contribute to drydan/nhl-positions development by creating an account on GitHub.

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yimmy @yimmymcbill.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

Made my NHL draft code public. I rolled things back to expedite clean up so the outputs are even worse than last year (need to add back terms like league x age). The release comes with data to start your own project or fix this one.

github.com

GitHub - drydan/nhl-draft-analysis

Contribute to drydan/nhl-draft-analysis development by creating an account on GitHub.

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yimmy @yimmymcbill.bsky.social · 20/12/2025

Coaching changes do not occur at random

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yimmy @yimmymcbill.bsky.social · 08/10/2025

When forming a draft list: the more limited your prospect evaluations the more "factoring in availability to maximize EV" becomes code for "regularizing towards consensus".

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yimmy @yimmymcbill.bsky.social · 14/07/2025

Sealing off this work for now. Popular NHLe models split up estimating league strength and predicting player outcomes. I attempt to do this under one roof in a way that I think is principled… but out of my depth. Am I contributing anything new in the space? Nah.

$Formula written in Latex: $$ \text{tp}_{ijt} \sim \mathbf{Poisson}(\text{gp}_{ijt} \times \exp(\text{player}_{is} + \text{league}_{jt} + \text{position}_{jk}))\\ \text{player}_{i,s} = \text{player}_{i,s-1} + \text{age}_{s,k} - \text{age}_{s-1,k} + \epsilon_{i,s}\\ \text{age}_{s,k} \sim \mathbf{N}(2\space\text{age}_{s-1,k} - \text{age}_{s-2,k},\space\sigma_1^2)\\ \text{league}_{jt} \sim \mathbf{N}(\text{league}_{j,t-1},\space\sigma_2^2)\\ \text{player}_{i,0} \sim \mathbf{N}(0,\space\sigma_3^2)\\ \epsilon_{i,s} \sim \mathbf{N}(0,\space\sigma_{s}^2) $$$

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yimmy @yimmymcbill.bsky.social · 31/05/2025

NHL Draft model v2. Wrote a rough draft about what I think was going wrong the first go. Not there yet. drydan.github.io/posts-hockey...

Ridge plot ordering the top 27 eligible players for the 2025 NHL Draft by the posteriors for a player ability. In list form below.

Rank.|LastName|x|NHL Scouting Rank
:-----|:------|:------:|:--:
1.|Misa|2.18|2
2.|Hagens|2.06|3
3.|Schaefer|2.04|1
4.|Martone|2.01|6
5.|Frondell|1.94|1 Int.
6.|Aitcheson|1.91|9
7.|O'Brien|1.86|4
8.|Desnoyers|1.85|7
9.|Eklund|1.84|2 Int.
10.|Carbonneau|1.81|16
11.|Kindel|1.8|21
12.|Reschny|1.78|25
13.|Reid|1.76|23
14.|Bear|1.76|10
15.|Veilleux|1.74|91
16.|Zonnon|1.71|31
17.|Mrtka|1.71|5
18.|Smith|1.68|13
19.|Martin|1.66|11
20.|Schmidt|1.65|43
21.|Woo|1.64|156
22.|Hensler|1.62|12
23.|Tremblay|1.61|
24.|McQueen|1.6|8
25.|Spence|1.6|17
26.|Brisson|1.57|
27.|Lakovic|1.57|14

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yimmy @yimmymcbill.bsky.social · 18/05/2025

First go at a Poisson SSM for men's hockey. League str, F/D age curves & individuals modelled as RW1s. 14 leagues dating back to 2013 w/ no skater cutoffs. Schaefer an interesting case this year. Would bump to 3rd in draft given a full season and 1st if last season was punched up reasonably.

Ridge plot ranking the estimated latent talent of NHL prospects. Proceeding list is ordered by model. Number in brackets refers to the NHLs final scouting report ranks.
1. Misa (2),
2. Hagens (3),
3. Martone (6),
4. Schaefer (1),
5. Aitcheson (9),
6. Desnoyers (7),
7. Frondell (1 International),
8. Carbonneau (16),
9. O'Brien (4),
10. Kindel (21),
11. Eklund (2 International),
12. Veilleux (91),
13. Reschny (25),
14. Reid (23),
15. Hensler (12),
16. Zonnon (31),
17. Bear (10).

Histogram of posterior mean talents from seasons 2013-2024 on the left. Centered near 0 w/ standard deviation 0.84. Appears bell shaped with a thicker left tail. Histogram of fitted point totals on the right. Big spike near 0, after drop it decays smoothly w/ max at 152.7

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yimmy @yimmymcbill.bsky.social · 16/05/2025

PWHL released the 2025 draft eligibility list. Here's some coeffs from a pois reg for a NCAA D1 team level model. Strength of schedule a focus for points based analysis, but most top scorers play tougher games. Wisconsin the kind of super team I wish would declare all at once

A team level offense and defense scatterplot for NCAA D1 Women's Ice Hockey 2024-2025 season. Ranking the conferences by: NEWHA < CHA <= Hockey East < ECAC < WCHA. Wisconsin clearly dominant this year.

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yimmy @yimmymcbill.bsky.social · 09/12/2024

Siren's shift data from yesterdays PWHL game derived by recording live game summary updates for each players time on ice every 20 seconds.

Shift chart for the NY Sirens game on Dec 8th. Dots represent when a player appears on the ice during a recorded event. Bar thickness represents the percentage of time on the player was potentially on the ice for the length of the segment.

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yimmy @yimmymcbill.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

@mikemurphyhky.bsky.social do you know what's up with PWHL TOI data? I scraped last game's live summary updates to try and create a substitute shift chart but it did not turn out well for me. The final reported TOIs don't appear to add up either. Any work out there on this?

Makeshift shift chart for PWHL NY's Dec 1st Game vs. Minnesota. Dots represent when the individual appeared on the ice. While the data is not readily available I was hoping to recover partial information by recording game summary updates for TOI live.

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