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Gary Sands

@yangguizi.bsky.social
146 followers 74 following 748 posts

Taiwan-based Senior Analyst (China, Taiwan) at Wikistrat. Former US diplomat. Op-eds: Forbes, National Interest, Newsweek, SCMP. Lived in China 2006-2012, Vietnam 2013-2018.

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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
The Gulf States: Engaging militarily alongside the United States without confidence that Washington will follow through with a decisive, transformative campaign would leave them exposed to long-term Iranian retaliation with no strategic payoff. www.wikistrat.com/post/gulf-st...
wikistrat.com
Expert Analysis: The War in Iran and the Future of the Gulf
For years, the Gulf States sold the world on stability, investment, and distance from the Middle East's wars. Two weeks of Iranian strikes have shattered that narrative. In this Wikistrat analysis, Dr...
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 07/03/2026
“Asfura’s calculus is fundamentally about the US, not about Taiwan per se,” Urdinez said. “Taiwan recognition is essentially the price of admission to Trump’s good graces.” www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/...
taipeitimes.com
IN FOCUS: Honduras weighs shift in ties amid US pressure - Taipei Times
Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 07/03/2026
“If the conflict drags on for a couple of weeks, the most logical solution for Beijing is going to be to turn to more Russian crude,” said Andon Pavlov, Kpler’s oil and tanker research director. www.politico.com/news/2026/03...
politico.com
5 charts show China’s oil dilemma after US strikes
Disruption of Iranian oil supplies may make China more interested in turning to Russia.
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
"China’s engagement there in recent years has been largely pragmatic and belies the notion of an anti-American alliance with the Islamic Republic." foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/05/i...
foreignpolicy.com
On Iran, China Cares About the Region More Than the Regime
Beijing won’t risk its broader Middle East interests to save the Islamic Republic.
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
"More than 55 percent of China’s total oil imports in 2025 came from the Middle East (approximately 13 percent from Iran itself), most of which must pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway bordered by Iran." www.foreignaffairs.com/china/why-ch...
foreignaffairs.com
Why China Won’t Help Iran
Beijing cares about the oil, not the regime.
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
"Because its priority is to ensure that Iran remains a viable economic partner, it is regime agnostic." www.foreignaffairs.com/china/why-ch...
foreignaffairs.com
Why China Won’t Help Iran
Beijing cares about the oil, not the regime.
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
"Even if broad segments of Cuban society demand a decisive break with socialism, the dominant bureaucratic, academic, military, and media elites would seek to preserve their influence." www.foreignaffairs.com/cuba/coming-...
foreignaffairs.com
The Coming Showdown Over Cuba
How escalating U.S. pressure could reshape the island.
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
China gets only 13.4% of its oil from Iran, making such a loss serious but far from irrecoverable. www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...
lowyinstitute.org
What the Iran war means for the US-China balance
Even in the best-case scenario, China losing a friend in Tehran won’t be the blow Trump might assume.
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
Facing Trump, "Beijing might be trying to create a false impression: I am peaceful, I am moving toward peace, so you should stop selling weapons to Taiwan," a senior Taiwan security official said. www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/...
taipeitimes.com
Drop in Chinese air incursions might be due to Trump-Xi meeting: officials - Taipei Times
Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
Colby said that Washington would play an important role in the Middle East militarily, but with Israel, US Gulf partners and European allies being more assertive the US would still be able to focus on the first island chain. www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/a...
taipeitimes.com
US says weapons supply under control - Taipei Times
Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
Colby said that the US needs to work hard on the defense industrial base, but that “nobody should get the wrong impression” and that the US is “ahead of the problem.”
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
The Embassy of China in Japan on Wednesday issued an alert urging Chinese citizens in the country to stay vigilant against public safety risks, warning of a recent rise in "bumping assault" incidents that have drawn widespread public attention. www.chinadailyasia.com/hk/article/6...
chinadailyasia.com
Chinese embassy warns citizens in Japan against 'bumping assault' risks
The embassy also reminded its citizens in emergencies to contact local police immediately and to seek assistance from Chinese diplomatic missions in Japan.
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
Li instead shows that only about 28 percent of the population has total trust in Xi. www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/chin...
foreignaffairs.com
China’s Fragile Future
How secure is the CCP?
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
Many Taiwanese have filed complaints to the ministry, saying that the online system lists Taiwan as “China (Taiwan)” in dropdown menus for “place of departure” and “next destination.” www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/...
taipeitimes.com
S Korean travel system still using ‘China (Taiwan)’ - Taipei Times
Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
"and open controlled channels to Beijing rather than treating all engagement as capitulation." (which Beijing will treat as capitulation) www.foreignaffairs.com/taiwan/taiwa...
foreignaffairs.com
Taiwan Doesn’t Have to Choose
Cross-strait peace requires working with both Beijing and Washington.
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
"...nor does any country support Taiwan’s independence." (As of March 2026, 12 countries maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan (Republic of China), implicitly supporting its sovereignty as an independent entity.)
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
"Many observers [such as Xi] assume that Taiwan must choose to align itself with one side or the other." www.foreignaffairs.com/taiwan/taiwa...
foreignaffairs.com
Taiwan Doesn’t Have to Choose
Cross-strait peace requires working with both Beijing and Washington.
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
"...the utility of Philippine geography and capabilities is overstated. A handful of undefended U.S. equipment sites and rotational Marine deployments are unlikely to deter China from attacking Taiwan." www.foreignaffairs.com/taiwan/taiwa...
foreignaffairs.com
Taiwan Doesn’t Have to Choose
Cross-strait peace requires working with both Beijing and Washington.
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
The regime's survival calculus is built on outlasting Washington, not defeating it. www.wikistrat.com/post/epic-fury
wikistrat.com
Expert Analysis: Operation “Epic Fury”
Expert analysis of “Operation Epic Fury,” uncovering the strategic realities of the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran and what it means for the region’s future.
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Lai noted that "archives about the Lin family case are incomplete, and much of the oral history has proven unreliable or fabricated," referring to the 1980 murder of three members of then-dissident Lin I-hsiung's (林義雄) family on Feb. 28, 1980. focustaiwan.tw/politics/202...
focustaiwan.tw
Lin Family killing archives declassified, but key evidence destroyed: Lai - Focus Taiwan
President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) said Saturday that all archives concerning the unresolved 1980 Lin family massacre have been declassified for public review, though evidence regarding the perpetrators rem...
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Taiwan should build domestic cable repair capacity, ideally with Japan, and its coast guard should expand vessel watch lists and patrols near critical cable corridors. www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/...
taipeitimes.com
China could easily trigger Taiwan data blackout: expert - Taipei Times
Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Taiwan has secured liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies for this month and contingency measures are in place if the conflict extends to next month - only 25 percent of Taiwan’s natural gas supplies are from Qatar. www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/a...
taipeitimes.com
No power rationing due to Middle East conflict, minister says - Taipei Times
Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Life in Venice? $168 a month for her apartment in faux Venice in the eastern Chinese province of Jiangsu. apnews.com/article/chin...
apnews.com
As China's economy slows, some young people are snapping up cheap apartments to 'retire' early
As China’s property market craters and youth unemployment rises, burned-out young professionals are fleeing megacities for ultracheap housing in remote towns.
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Even Myanmar’s democratic government-in-exile, the National Unity Government (NUG), has since 2024 adopted a policy of not recognizing Taiwan out of a desire to win Beijing’s favor. www.taipeitimes.com/News/feat/ar...
taipeitimes.com
A controversial Karen warlord’s quiet stop in Taipei - Taipei Times
Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
"Trump himself is notorious for his willingness to backpedal while declaring victory. Epic Fury may end with death and destruction in Iran but little change in the long term." foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/28/i...
foreignpolicy.com
6 Questions About Operation Epic Fury
The United States and Israel have set a high bar for success in their war on Iran.
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
Neil Thomas, a specialist in China’s elite politics, has observed that Xi is “a calculated risk-taker rather than a reckless gambler.” foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/25/t...
foreignpolicy.com
Thanks to Trump, Xi Has Time on His Side With Taiwan
Beijing is less likely to risk an invasion while Trump is facilitating its pressure campaign against Taipei.
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
The leadership gaps would erode the effectiveness of the People's Liberation Army in the event of a major military campaign, such as an invasion of Beijing-claimed Taiwan. www.newsweek.com/china-purges...
newsweek.com
China purges nine military officials ahead of key meeting for Xi
Nine more top military officials have been just days ahead of China's most important legislative meetings.
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
"A strike meant to weaken hard-liners could actually speed up the uniting of leaders around a wartime mindset." foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/23/t...
foreignpolicy.com
The United States Is Misreading Iran
Washington can start a war, but it may not be able to control the escalation.
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
The bigger concern is the quality and experience of the newly promoted officers. www.nbcnews.com/world/asia/x...
nbcnews.com
How Xi's military purges could hamper China's ability to fight
Two new studies document the crackdown and raise questions about the People's Liberation Army's ability to carry out large-scale operations, such as a potential assault on Taiwan.
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
The Type-03 medium-range surface-to-air guided missiles are expected to be stationed at Camp Yonaguni during fiscal 2030. Read more at: www.stripes.com/theaters/asi... Source - Stars and Stripes
stripes.com
Japan moves to bolster air defenses on island near Taiwan
Type-03 medium-range surface-to-air guided missiles are expected to be stationed at Camp Yonaguni during fiscal 2030, Japan’s defense minister said.
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
"The folks in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Doha will not need formal U.S. security guarantees. AI is the mother of all insurance policies." foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/23/g...
foreignpolicy.com
For the Gulf States, Investment in AI Is Partly About U.S. Protection
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE hope to become artificial intelligence hubs.
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
Should citizens be held accountable for the actions of their governments? globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...
globalaffairs.org
Olympic Officials Want the Games to Be Politically Neutral—Can They Be?
By barring Russian athletes from competing under the Russian flag, the International Olympic Committee demonstrated its power as a global norm-maker. Now, sporting federation leaders are seeking to di...
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
Distillation is a normal practice used by AI companies in which a “teacher” model is prompted with specifically tailored inputs, and the answers provided allow a “student” model to rapidly improve. gizmodo.com/anthropic-sa...
gizmodo.com
Anthropic Says Chinese AI Companies Improved Models By 'Illicitly' Copying Its Capabilities
Keep in mind that DeepSeek is expected to release a new flagship model any day now.
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
The first time in Taiwan’s history that the heads of all five branches came together for a reception. www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/a...
taipeitimes.com
Lai calls for unity at rare reception with all five yuan leaders - Taipei Times
Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
Civil servants and other officials are risking their careers to leak essential stories that inform the public on how their rights are being breached. foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/30/m...
foreignpolicy.com
Does the United States Need a More Militant Democracy?
A political concept from the mid-20th century has never been more relevant than now.
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 22/02/2026
"American promises to foster greater prosperity and better governance now elicit eye rolls throughout Asia." www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
foreignaffairs.com
Asia After America
How U.S. strategy failed—and ceded the advantage to China.
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 22/02/2026
"The regime will be accountable to the United States and its own people for any interference … the United States stands ready to surge even greater direct support to the Cuban people. The corrupt regime must simply permit it." www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
cbc.ca
ANALYSIS | Cuba running on fumes as Canada considers sending relief | CBC News
Canada says it will consider sending humanitarian aid to Cuba as the country deals with severe blackouts and shortages greatly exacerbated by the Trump administration's oil blockade. While Canada coul...
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 22/02/2026
"It is quite unusual for USFK to conduct a major drill over the West Sea unilaterally, not during a scheduled joint exercise with South Korea. The operation near China’s ADIZ suggests the move was clearly aimed at Beijing." www.koreatimes.co.kr/southkorea/d...
koreatimes.co.kr
Rare US-China standoff in West Sea signals USFK shift to counter Beijing - The Korea Times
A rare aerial standoff in the West Sea between U.S. and Chinese fighter jets has prompted warnings from analysts that Washington may be putting int...
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 21/02/2026
56 percent of the profits of the Takhar project reportedly go to Taliban authorities. foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/20/t...
foreignpolicy.com
China’s Afghan Gold Rush Is Turning Deadly
The Taliban government can’t protect Chinese miners from local hostility.
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
Khanna said Congress is currently advancing legislation to codify the six "stabilizing principles" through the Six Assurances to Taiwan Act. focustaiwan.tw/politics/202...
focustaiwan.tw
Calls for Six Assurances law after Trump Taiwan arms comments - Focus Taiwan
U.S. President Donald Trump's suggestion that he is negotiating Taiwan arms sales with Beijing has raised concerns and prompted calls for Congress to codify the 1982 security pledges, known as the "Si...
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
Surely Xi will bring this up with Trump www.armytimes.com/news/your-mi...
armytimes.com
US to send more missile launchers to the Philippines despite China’s alarm
The addition of missile launchers comes as treaty allies condemned what they called China’s “illegal, coercive, aggressive, and deceptive activities.”
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
Upending Norms: Washington's long-held "Six Assurances" to Taiwan include not consulting with Beijing about arms sales to Taipei, meaning Trump may have infringed on the policy depending on the nature of his talks with Xi. www.newsweek.com/trump-says-h...
newsweek.com
Trump says he's talking about Taiwan arms sales with Xi
Consulting with China on the future of weapons sales would break with more than four decades of Taiwan policy, observers say.
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
“This congressional support is important. But too many KMT / TPP politicians are pro-PRC. More effective ... cancel USA visas and green cards of KMT/TPP politicians’ relatives,” Newsham said. www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/...
taipeitimes.com
Review status of relatives of opposition: ex-Marine - Taipei Times
Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
In what country does the deposed leader run for office 6 months later? www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/nepal-e...
channelnewsasia.com
Nepal launches campaigns for first post-uprising polls
KATHMANDU: Nepali candidates launch their campaigns on Monday (Feb 16) for next month's parliamentary elections, the first since deadly anti-corruption protests toppled the previous government in 2025...
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
Electric vehicles need electricity to run, but Cuba's current electricity landscape is heavily reliant on fossil fuels, with more than 95% of its electricity being generated from fossil sources. www.reuters.com/business/ene...
reuters.com
Cubans turn to electric vehicles as US tightens oil blockade
The rumble of 1959 Chevrolets, once the rhythmic heartbeat of Havana, is fading to the near silence of electric vehicles as the island faces its worst fuel shortage in years.
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
China Losing Face at WTO: “the export-led growth model that drove China’s growth for the past 40 years cannot drive China’s growth for the next 40,” says Okonjo-Iweala, the head of the WTO. www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/arc...
taipeitimes.com
WTO calls on China to rethink its growth model - Taipei Times
Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 15/02/2026
"I cannot let these madmen shape the world of my daughter's future." cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/5fJ...
cdn.jwplayer.com
CIA urges Chinese government officials to spy for US in Mandarin video
CIA urges Chinese government officials to spy for US in Mandarin video Central Intelligence Agency
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 14/02/2026
A majority of Americans consider allowing Moscow to acquire the Ukrainian territories seized by Russia in the current war unacceptable (67%). globalaffairs.org/research/pub...
globalaffairs.org
Americans Oppose Ceding the Donbas to Russia Amid Push for Peace Deal
They are also divided on the United States’ participation in Europe’s “Coalition of the Willing” to defend a ceasefire in Ukraine.
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 14/02/2026
"If even a newspaper owned by one of the richest men in the world becomes intertwined with government, or cannot withstand political pressure, what does that signal to the rest of the media infrastructure?" foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/13/w...
foreignpolicy.com
The Demise of the Washington Post Is a Global Problem
What Jeff Bezos’s actions signal to news outlets around the world.
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Gary Sands @yangguizi.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
"It is in Beijing’s interest to reiterate its peaceful intentions, and it is in Washington’s interest to reinstate its previous position that it 'does not support Taiwan independence.'" www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
foreignaffairs.com
America and China at the Edge of Ruin
A last chance to step back from the brink.
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