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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 04/10/2026

Probably the only scenario where a shot on the line could have less than a 0.80 xG value lol #NWSL | #KCvBAY | #KCBABY

Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 29/09/2026

1) We dispute the notion that the Courage have been middling 2) Parkinson has been quite good, especially for an 18-year-old.

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 20/09/2026

Glad to see ESPN — “the worldwide leader in sports” — fixed the… ah come on does no one in Illinois have a towel and a tarp!?

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 19/09/2026

Jordynn Dudley has been and continues to be due. Great setup by Sam Kerr, assist merchant, and great finish by Dudley. 1-0.

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 18/09/2026

CHOOSE YOUR FIGHTER In the battle for 8th place, the Elo projection model from @trevorl.bsky.social now has Angel City with the edge, whereas the model from @americansocceranalysis.com puts the Seattle Reign way out in front. Who ya got? #NWSL

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 17/09/2026

Angel City picked up three critical points off their nearest playoff rivals at home over the Seattle Reign. Now, they go on the road to Utah, Washington, Gotham and Denver. Job far from done. Score: 3 - 1 Non-penalty xG: 0.95 - 0.4 Quality Chances*: 1 - 1 Field Tilt: 43 - 57 #NWSL | #LAvSEA

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 17/09/2026

Angel City fans, do yourself a favor, savor the night and definitely don’t look at the schedule ahead… (Away team listed 2nd)

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 13/09/2026

Siri, what does “top bins” mean?

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 12/09/2026

Angel City had a big call go their way at home! They needed it, too, as they battled from 3-1 down to settle for a point against the Denver Summit. Score: 3 - 3 Non-penalty xG: 2.5 - 1.3 Non-penalty xG per Shot: 0.17 - 0.14 Quality Chances*: 4 - 3 Field Tilt: 57 - 43 #AngelCityFC | #LAvDEN | #NWSL

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 12/09/2026

While the Current haven't blown the doors off when chasing a game, the Pride have not been good defending a lead. #KCBABY | #ORLvKC | #NWSL

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 12/09/2026

When you score a goal but don't make a touch in the box #KCvORL | #NWSL

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 06/09/2026

Come on Leif, it was only a .40 xG miss…

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 05/09/2026

We’ve been critical of Mark Parsons and the Angel City front office at times but they nailed the Prisca Chilufya signing.

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 29/08/2026

And while we’re on people that Emma Hayes needs to look at… what Kimmi Ascanio is doing at the 6 is next level

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 29/08/2026

It’s still a small-ish sample but if Emma Hayes really does value club form, Trinity Byars also needs a look.

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 29/08/2026

Lauren Milliet has 3 goals on 2.93 npxG… Attackers that have logged more than 1000 minutes but fewer goals than Lauren Milliet… Ludmila, Jackie Ovalle, Jordynn Dudley, Maddie Dahlien, Barbara Olivieri, Rose Kouassi, Jameese Joseph…

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 29/08/2026

Jaedyn Shaw chipping Mackenzie Arnold because she saw an opening is a perfect example of “why shooting from distance isn’t always a bad idea.”

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 27/08/2026

Underlying attacking performances for this group in the #NWSL:

Player Team Position Minutes Non-penalty xG + Expected Assists per 96'
Sophia Wilson POR ST 1834 0.61
Trinity Rodman WAS W 1987 0.60
Pietra Tordin POR W 1760 0.55
Ashley Sanchez NC W 2022 0.49
Emma Sears LOU W 1716 0.44
Michelle Cooper KC W 1082 0.44
Ally Sentnor LA, KC ST 1982 0.38
Mal Swanson CHI W 674 0.29

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 24/08/2026

So glad the playoff picture got cleared up this weekend…

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 23/08/2026

Portland Thorns, now in 3rd place, tied on points with the Washington Spirit, are apparently now selling Four-Leaf Clovers, Horseshoes, Wishbones and Rabbit’s Feet at Providence Park.

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 17/08/2026

Hal Hershfelt's final third passes and shots tonight, playing in the unfamiliar role of attacking midfielder. #LAvWAS | #NWSL

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 16/08/2026

Looking ahead to next week… Racing Louisville haven’t recorded a clean sheet all season, Chicago have been shut out in 14* of 19 games…

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 16/08/2026

Only one team in #NWSL history has conceded penalties at a higher rate than the Boston Legacy: the 2014 Boston Breakers, of course!

Team Season Games Penalty Shots Conceded Per Game
BOS1 2014 24 0.38
BOS2 2026 20 0.35
HOU 2026 18 0.33
ORL 2017 24 0.33
SEA 2013 22 0.32
SD 2022 22 0.32
NJY 2022 22 0.32
UTA 2024 26 0.31
HOU 2019 24 0.29
NJY 2018 24 0.29
LOU 2025 26 0.27
CHI 2023 22 0.27
DEN 2026 19 0.26
BAY 2026 19 0.26
CHI 2026 19 0.26
CHI 2014 24 0.25
WNY 2014 24 0.25
NJY 2021 24 0.25
NJY 2017 24 0.25
WNY 2016 20 0.25
BOS 2016 20 0.25
UTA 2025 26 0.23
LA 2023 22 0.23
WAS 2023 22 0.23
KC 2022 22 0.23
LA 2022 22 0.23

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 15/08/2026

The Kansas City Current have the second-largest all-time gap between their points and their expected points away from home. #KCBABY

Team Season Games Road PPG Road xPPG Diff
SD 2024 13 0.5 1.3 -0.8
KC 2026 11 0.6 1.4 -0.7
ORL 2016 10 0.4 1.1 -0.7
KC 2021 12 0.3 0.9 -0.7
WAS 2018 12 0.2 0.8 -0.7
BAY 2025 13 0.6 1.2 -0.6
WNY 2016 10 1.3 1.9 -0.6
NC 2025 13 1.2 1.7 -0.5
SEA 2023 11 1.0 1.5 -0.5
LOU 2024 13 0.6 1.1 -0.4
LOU 2026 10 0.6 1.0 -0.4
CHI 2021 12 1.0 1.4 -0.4
SEA 2024 13 0.5 1.0 -0.4
NJY 2018 12 0.3 0.7 -0.4
BOS 2016 10 0.3 0.7 -0.4
LOU 2021 12 0.5 0.9 -0.4
POR 2024 13 0.9 1.3 -0.4
POR 2023 11 1.1 1.4 -0.3
WAS 2022 11 0.6 1.0 -0.3
LA 2024 13 1.2 1.4 -0.3
HOU 2021 12 1.1 1.4 -0.3
ORL 2026 9 0.8 1.1 -0.3
BOS 2017 12 0.6 0.9 -0.3
SEA 2021 11 1.3 1.6 -0.3
LA 2025 13 0.7 1.0 -0.3
NC 2024 13 0.7 1.0 -0.3
WAS 2017 12 0.7 0.9 -0.3
POR 2025 13 1.2 1.4 -0.2
CHI 2022 11 1.1 1.3 -0.2
KC 2023 11 1.0 1.2 -0.2
ORL 2023 11 0.9 1.2 -0.2
NC 2019 12 1.8 2.0 -0.2
CHI 2025 13 0.6 0.8 -0.2
UTA 2019 12 1.0 1.2 -0.2
HOU 2024 13 0.8 1.0 -0.2
NJY 2023 11 1.4 1.5 -0.2
LOU 2023 11 0.7 0.9 -0.2
WAS 2023 11 1.3 1.4 -0.2
KC 2024 13 1.9 2.1 -0.2
CHI 2026 9 0.3 0.5 -0.2
NJY 2017 12 1.1 1.2 -0.2
HOU 2017 12 1.1 1.2 -0.1
HOU 2016 10 0.8 0.9 -0.1
NC 2021 12 1.2 1.3 -0.1
BOS 2026 7 0.9 1.0 -0.1
NC 2023 11 1.2 1.3 -0.1
NC 2017 12 1.8 1.9 -0.1
POR 2019 12 1.3 1.4 -0.1
DEN 2026 9 1.2 1.3 -0.1
SEA 2016 10 1.0 1.0 0.0
CHI 2017 12 1.3 1.4 0.0
SEA 2018 12 1.3 1.4 0.0
UTA 2025 13 0.9 0.9 0.0
HOU 2026 8 0.6 0.7 0.0
UTA 2024 13 0.9 0.9 0.0
BAY 2026 9 1.2 1.2 0.0
BAY 2024 13 1.5 1.5 0.0
SEA 2022 11 1.6 1.6 0.0
POR 2021 12 1.7 1.7 0.0
UTA 2018 12 1.3 1.3 0.0
WAS 2019 12 1.3 1.2 0.0
POR 2022 11 1.6 1.6 0.0
ORL 2019 12 0.8 0.7 0.0
NC 2018 12 2.3 2.3 0.0
POR 2026 11 1.2 1.1 0.1
LA 2026 8 1.5 1.4 0.1
NJY 2025 13 1.5 1.4 0.1
LOU 2022 11 1.0 0.9 0.1
CHI 2018 12 1.5 1.4 0.1
SD 2022 11 1.6 1.5 0.1
HOU 2018 12 1.1 1.0 0.1
KC 2022 11 1.5 1.4 0.1
LA 2022 11 1.1 1.0 0.1
SD 2026 10 2.0 1.9 0.1
NC 2022 11 1.5 1.3 0.1
CHI 2023 11 0.9 0.8 0.1
LOU 2025 13 1.5 1.3 0.2
POR 2017 12 1.3 1.2 0.2
UTA 2026 10 1.5 1.3 0.2
NJY 2016 10 1.4 1.2 0.2
KC 2017 12 1.2 1…

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 15/08/2026

Nearly half of all shots were Quality Chances tonight in Harrison. Gotham had a LOT more of 'em than Kansas City did, and that was, shockingly, the difference. Score: 2 - 1 xG: 2.8 - 1.8 xG per Shot: 0.16 - 0.30 Quality Chances*: 7 - 3 Field Tilt: 66 - 34 #KCBABY | #GothamFC | #GFCvKC | #NWSL

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 15/08/2026

10 shots in the first half. Six of them Quality Chances*. Giddyup, folks. #KCBABY | #GothamFC | #NJYvKC | #GFCvKC | #NWSL

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 12/08/2026

On to the WAFCON final on Sunday! Here is the updated non-penalty xG differential leaderboard. Malawi the favorites? Kinda feels like it! (As always, the usual caveats apply: small sample, opponent quality, game state, etc.) #TotalEnergiesWAFCON2026

Team Games npxGD/Game
Ghana 4 1.19
Zambia 3 0.97
Nigeria 4 0.85
South Africa 4 0.85
Morocco 5.3 0.77
Malawi 5 0.52
Côte d'Ivoire 4 0.27
Mali 3 -0.10
Cameroon 5.3 -0.18
Senegal 3 -0.46
Burkina Faso 3 -0.47
Algeria 5 -0.57
Kenya 3 -0.58
Tanzania 3 -0.81
Cabo Verde 3 -1.76
Egypt 3 -1.97

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 12/08/2026

Back and forth and back and forth but no quality chances from the shots actually taken. Does Cameroon have enough in the tank to break through in the final 30? #TotalEnergiesWAFCON2026

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 12/08/2026

Very different vibes from the first WAFCON semifinal today #TotalEnergiesWAFCON2026

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 10/08/2026

Susie raised an important point we had forgotten about: the U-20 World Cup. So, in this week's projections, we factored those likely absences into the #NWSL model from @americansocceranalysis.com. Here's the average between that model and the Elo model built by @trevorl.bsky.social.

Team AVG Projected Pts
NJY 59
WAS 54
POR 50
KC 50
SD 50
NC 49
UTA 48
SEA 42
LA 41
DEN 40
ORL 37
BAY 33
LOU 32
BOS 32
HOU 32
CHI 23

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 10/08/2026

"Riley Tiernan does so well to create that opportunity" Lianne is Lianne-ing

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 10/08/2026

Chicago Stars beat Bay FC 0 - 0 xG: 0.7 - 2.0 xG per Shot: 0.05 - 0.14 Quality Chances*: 0 - 5 Field Tilt: 61 - 39 #CHIvBAY | #NWSL

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 09/08/2026

Updated non-penalty xG differential leaderboard (per-game) thru the WAFCON quarterfinals! Cameroon + Algeria still playing with fire, while Morocco is now the heavy favorite to finally win on home soil. (Usual caveats apply: small sample, opponent quality, game state, etc) #TotalEnergiesWAFCON2026

Team Group Games npxGD
Ghana D 4 1.19
Zambia C 3 0.97
Morocco A 4 0.92
Nigeria C 4 0.85
South Africa B 4 0.85
Côte d'Ivoire B 4 0.27
Malawi C 4 0.24
Mali D 3 -0.10
Cameroon D 4 -0.13
Algeria A 4 -0.30
Senegal A 3 -0.46
Burkina Faso B 3 -0.47
Kenya A 3 -0.58
Tanzania B 3 -0.81
Cabo Verde D 3 -1.76
Egypt C 3 -1.97

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 09/08/2026

Somehow, some way, luck still hasn't run out for the Portland Thorns, as they snatch a hot and messy road win in Pawtucket over the Boston Legacy. Score: 3 - 4 xG: 1.4 - 1.5 xG per Shot: 0.12 - 0.11 Quality Chances*: 3 - 2 Field Tilt: 72 - 28 #BAONPDX | #BOSvPOR | #NWSL

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 09/08/2026

Malawi are 6 mins plus stoppage time away from proving once and for all that FIFA Rankings are absolute trash…

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 09/08/2026

Six goals on a combined 1.2 xG, you love to see it

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 09/08/2026

Portland apparently good at all places named Providence…

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 09/08/2026

Probably not how Boston drew it up…

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 09/08/2026

Reddit not beating the allegations

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 08/08/2026

Emma Sears told us about her favorite shooting location… can you guess where it is? youtu.be/uybEpE10ytk?...

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 06/08/2026

With the WAFCON group stage now concluded, here is how every team performed by non-penalty xG differential. Algeria can perhaps count themselves lucky, while Zambia will feel very hard done by the new tiebreaker rules. (The usual caveats apply: small sample size, opponent quality, game state, etc)

Team Group npxGD
Ghana D 1.63
Morocco A 1.20
South Africa B 1.15
Zambia C 0.97
Nigeria C 0.73
Malawi C 0.28
Cameroon D 0.23
Côte d'Ivoire B 0.13
Mali D -0.10
Algeria A -0.17
Senegal A -0.46
Burkina Faso B -0.47
Kenya A -0.58
Tanzania B -0.81
Cabo Verde D -1.76
Egypt C -1.97

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 05/08/2026

You know sh*t is getting real when you’re onto the head-to-head goals scored tiebreaker.

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 03/08/2026

Flint to Utah would be a PROBLEM.

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Expected Own Goals @xowngoals.com · 03/08/2026

Soph Wilson throwing her hat in the ring for worst miss of the season. YEESH.

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