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WilliamRudisill

@wrudisill.bsky.social
142 followers 385 following 207 posts

PhD Hydrologist — snow, climate change, water resources www.willrudisill.net

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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
Super interesting analysis. It would truly be a sight to behold the north fork of the American at 60k cfs!
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
Looking forward to listening. I personally am less worried about the doomer scenarios than the “enshitification” of ai when the chips fall and these companies have to start being profitable.
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
First snowfall (graupel) of water year 2027 in Truckee, CA. #cawx
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
A composite of NOAA USHCN v2 data shows it was >3 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average 🥵https://bsky.app/profile/wrudisill.bsky.social/post/3mwr5g3ve222f
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
As the "water year" comes to a close, we can start looking at some climate statistics. 2026 is emerging as the warmest year ever observed across the Upper Colorado River basin (not surprising) based on NOAA USHCN data. The red curve is all of the stations in the basin, blue is the Gunnison.
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Looks like a nice tool! I will also give a shout out to climatereanalyzer.org which I don't feel like gets enough attention.
climatereanalyzer.org
Climate Reanalyzer
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
This is going to bleed into the more applied sciences no doubt. I’m thinking of earth/climate work that relies on already extant data. Not sure professional societies or funding agencies (what’s left of them) are ready for that.
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
I’m certainly not good at it but keeping all Tex versions tracked with git is super helpful. After doing revisions I have a script that makes a latex-diff between the current version and whatever commit ID i want in the git log. That’s very handy. The line number thing drives me nuts though.
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
People that complain about this must not have 100Gb worth of a dozen different conda environments they cycle through for every project
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
The lighting in this one is so interesting — it feels vaguely sinister. You can almost feel the intensity of the sun outside of the shadow of the house.
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
“The Great Thirst” is a comprehensive tome about the history of water development in California. I’m still working through it, but it’s very good.
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Reposted by WilliamRudisill
Mike Dettinger @mdettinger.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Abrupt snowmelt due to “snow-eater heat waves” in Western US can cause flooding AND snow droughts, & affects water resources. Since 1850, simulated snow-eaters avg ~3-5 days, with 3-5 events, doubling melt rates. 7 of 11 spring superfloods coincided w/snow-eaters. www.science.org/doi/full/10....
science.org
Snow-eater heat waves of the western United States
Snow-eater heat waves are defined, identified, and shown to nearly double usual western United States spring snowmelt rates.
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
<insert the "worst person you know has a point meme"> We do use an unreasonable amount of agricultural water for things like growing alfalfa for feeding animals that we later eat, or corn to combust in vehicles that should be EVs.
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
It appears alarmingly close to requiring the “a” word to describe what’s happening (the “a” word is “accelerating”)
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
Oof you lost me on that one— a work of incel fiction. Follows a man with no discernible interpersonal connections beyond quips; no apparent growth other than learning he wasn’t missing anything after all
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
(e.g., in the summer the average daily air temperature is likely more skewed towards tmax, and in the winter more towards tmin)
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Related to using tmin/tmax data from GHCNd — could someone comment on how adjustments also convert to daily average temp.? Is it just assumed the daily avg = 1/2(tmin + tmax)? This seems important for understanding seasonal anomalies as well as comparing against models
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
I wrote a post about the "cold content" of the snowpack, a quantity commonly used in the hydrology and snow science literature to express how close to melting a snowpack is. www.willrudisill.net/science/2026...
willrudisill.net
Cold Content--- in Context
The topic of this post is “cold content”. This is an important quantity in the world of snow science, but sometimes it’s not explained or understood very wel...
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Came here to say the 2nd part of the joke is off; they have a Traeger
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Reposted by WilliamRudisill
YubaNet @yubanet.com · 08/06/2026
A reminder.
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
It bothers me that he had a space between the first and third - but not the second. Great work.
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
It’s like a failure of the end of history theory that we’re witnessing in real time
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
I'm genuinely curious if AI tools have had any part of BYD's battery development process
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
They aren’t selling intelligence— they are selling labor. Centering the div in JavaScript is no different than any other type of tedious labor, and that example describes most AI applications. If intelligence were that valuable then a lot of people would be getting paid more.
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Obviously fire hazard is increasing/will increase over time, in general, but modeling at a per-zip code basis certainly is fraught with challenges.
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
"reforms allow the FAIR Plan ... to price wildfire risk based on forward-looking risk models that take into account potentially worsening fires, rather than historical data...." I'm really curious about the sausage that went into this .... model selection, downscaling, fire weather metrics, etc.
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
and the CO2 concentrations by year are available from data.isimip.org
data.isimip.org
ISIMIP Repository
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
I just made it this afternoon; feel free to distribute. It's pretty quick to reproduce if you set up an account on the Copernicus data store. cds.climate.copernicus.eu/datasets/pro...
cds.climate.copernicus.eu
CMIP6 climate projections
This catalogue entry provides daily and monthly global climate projections data from a large number of experiments, models and time periods computed in the framework of the sixth phase of the Coupled ...
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
The big picture that think gets missed in some of the discussion about scenarios: the concentration of atmospheric CO2 makes the planet hotter, first and foremost. The chart below compares SSP3-7.0 to the higher emission SSP 5-8.5 (analogous to RCP 8.5 in CMIP5).
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
e.g., the solar radiation/precipitation intensity mechanism they describe will be stronger in the mid-latitudes during the summer than in the winter, so this mechanism should be more more important for places with more summer precipitation relative to winter.
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
They acknowledge this in the paper — but the theory/analysis they describe does not take into account snow and ice, nor the *effects of seasonality*. For regions — such as western USA — where all/most of the precipitation falls in the cold-season months these are both probably important
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
I'm going to start referring to it as "Bari Weiss' Failing CBS News"
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
which is great and fine, but those models have been around for a long time.
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Yeah, that sort of prompted the question— I see Sec. 4 describes some new algorithms, but many seem to be various ways of retrieving/estimating different terms of the PM or Shuttleworth equations
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Curious to hear your thoughts— have there been substantive theoretical developments towards estimating ET from remote sensing observations in the last ~2 decades? Or do we just have more data now.
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Great product placement for Amtrak
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Reposted by WilliamRudisill
WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Just how anomalous was the March heat in California? These are from NOAA US Historical Climate Network v2.5 monthly air temperature data for four stations in the vicinity of Lake Tahoe. This was the warmest March of record, and a full 3 standard deviations beyond the mean. #CAWX
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/lan...
ncei.noaa.gov
U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN)
U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) data are used to quantify national and regional-scale temperature changes in the contiguous United States (CONUS). The dataset provides adjustments for syst...
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Just how anomalous was the March heat in California? These are from NOAA US Historical Climate Network v2.5 monthly air temperature data for four stations in the vicinity of Lake Tahoe. This was the warmest March of record, and a full 3 standard deviations beyond the mean. #CAWX
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
uhhh... does ERA5 really not assimilate weather station data?
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
ok
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
That's not really my read on the situation— other cults exist yes. I'm referencing the fact that most of their worldview is based on things like harry potter fanfiction, obscure video games, and other esoteric stuff from the deep internet.
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
I wonder (and fear) that this type of thinking only emerges from a society that lets someone spend like 95% of their waking hours on the internet and that we may start seeing more of it
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Reposted by WilliamRudisill
WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
I wrote a post about the March 2026 heatwave and snowmelt. In a normal year, energy from the sun provides most of the energy for snowmelt, but during early spring "snow eater" heatwaves (such as this year's) other factors are likely more important! www.willrudisill.net/science/2026... #CAWX
willrudisill.net
The case for temperature driven snowmelt
Warm temperatures melt snow The March heatwave in the Southwestern USA raises the question — what actually happens to snow when it gets warm? This is a surpr...
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
I wrote a post about the March 2026 heatwave and snowmelt. In a normal year, energy from the sun provides most of the energy for snowmelt, but during early spring "snow eater" heatwaves (such as this year's) other factors are likely more important! www.willrudisill.net/science/2026... #CAWX
willrudisill.net
The case for temperature driven snowmelt
Warm temperatures melt snow The March heatwave in the Southwestern USA raises the question — what actually happens to snow when it gets warm? This is a surpr...
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
I think the realization is that a well functioning society actually depends on actors having a concept of duty, morality, right/wrong and liberal ideology — not just people doing things incentivized may their material benefit. Witnessing the collapse of that paradigm now
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Seeing a lot of hate towards Oster and Bhattacharya in the comments — well deserved. I’m here to day Ioannidis is also a nut
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WilliamRudisill @wrudisill.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
I’m looking forward to the breakout session about chicken coop safety, hosted by the fox
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