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This is possibly the difference between a RQ and the objectives of a study, where it makes more sense to clearly state the methodological limitations you're working with

I'm with you on this. Also why I think every causal analysis should really have 2 DAGs. 1) Conceptual DAG outlining the theoretical causal structure you're interested in 2) Analytical DAG showing your operationalisation/measurement of those concepts

How many hours in total do we think it takes for 21.5k applications to be prepared? Can we think of better ways for scientists to spend their time?

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Dr Will Ball @wpball.com · 16/09/2026

I am reminded of that bloke on Question Time strenuously arguing that his £80k salary 'wasn't even in the top 50%' when it was comfortably within the top 5% of household incomes at the time

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Does this mean that an apple crumble, or 'top crust only' pie is actually upside down toast?

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Dr Will Ball @wpball.com · 16/09/2026

Also calzone pizza is a sandwich

Dr Will Ball @wpball.com · 16/09/2026

But a taco is a sandwich.

Dr Will Ball @wpball.com · 11/09/2026

Why does the UNO-X rider have red numbers on? Messaging from Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

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Dr Will Ball @wpball.com · 10/09/2026

The only way to win the bike race is to go faster than everyone else. Solid strategy from Wout here.

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Dr Will Ball @wpball.com · 10/09/2026

The certainty is that things are financially bad, especially for university employees.

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Dr Will Ball @wpball.com · 31/08/2026

He gets paid to write this stuff huh?

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Dr Will Ball @wpball.com · 28/08/2026

Also, wasn't there lots of polling under Starmer that showed Reform voters still hated Labour?

Dr Will Ball @wpball.com · 28/08/2026

If you only view politics through the lens of strategic game playing, it sounds like a logical assessment. In reality, how can another party implementing the policies you want be a nightmare?!

Dr Will Ball @wpball.com · 25/08/2026

9 to 5 is a working class anthem. Well done Dolly

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Dr Will Ball @wpball.com · 13/08/2026

Six of the ten hottest Tour de France stages on record happened this year. The average stage temperature was 29.4°C, nearly 3.5°C above the previous hottest edition in recent seasons. Link: willpball.substack.com/p/was-2026-t...

Title: 'Was 2026 the hottest Tour de France ever?"
Subtitle: Checking claims against a century of temperature records
By Will Ball

A bar chart showing that the 2026 Tour de France was the hottest of recent memory.

Dr Will Ball @wpball.com · 29/07/2026

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

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Dr Will Ball @wpball.com · 27/07/2026

I imagine top speeds where the danger is highest, e.g. flying down the side of a mountain or in a sprint finish, haven't actually changed all that much in recent years. The speed/safety conversation is misguided if you only look at average speeds for stages or the whole race.

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Dr Will Ball @wpball.com · 27/07/2026

Yes, average speeds have gone up but that's not purely down to physiology. If it was possible to look at the distribution of speeds during the stages that would likely tell the true story - more time spent at higher speeds because the racing starts earlier & there are fewer soft breakaways.

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Dr Will Ball @wpball.com · 23/07/2026

It would have to be ridden very passively. I suppose Alpecin will have a dual-threat plan with MvdP trying to get ahead.

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Dr Will Ball @wpball.com · 23/07/2026

He must do now. Philipsen cannot win the Montmartre Paris stage surely?

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Dr Will Ball @wpball.com · 23/07/2026

Behind the scenes with the Commonwealth Games opening ceremony planning team. "Fuck it, let's just have a massive Tunnocks tea cake with sparklers"

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As much as I enjoy England and their coach/tactics being the reason for their loss, it seems a bit 'Brits at it again' behaviour to ignore that Argentina may have influenced the result somewhat too.

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Surprisingly not on penalties though

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Ha! They'll be insufferable regardless.

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Dr Will Ball @wpball.com · 27/06/2026

Irish and Scots fans can legitimately support Argentina because of Alexis Mac Allister right?

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Also, perverse that private hotels are also likely to make a profit (from public money) from the situation.

Dr Will Ball @wpball.com · 27/06/2026

We collectively normalise a lot of awful stuff don't we? IMHO (equitable) population health should be the guiding measure for a successful society.