Fertility rates across eastern Europe have been in decline for six decades. This has caused a collapse in working-age populations across the region. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger portion of these post-Soviet populations. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

If current trends continue, 30% of countries will have a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 1.0 or less by 2050. The replacement threshold required to stabilise a population is 2.1. These low TFRs, at 1 or below, would create successive generations which are half or less the size than that of the previous generation. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Decades of low fertility are causing Belarus’s working-age population to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Over the past decade, many countries within the B-grade category have significantly declined on the World Economics Governance Index. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

A declining fertility rate is causing Ireland’s working-age population to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Decades of low fertility are causing the French working-age population to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

The table below illustrates the remarkable progress of the Asia-Pacific region in the past decade in GDP per Capita terms. The region’s GDP per capita increased by 45.8%. Although growth has been dramatic, the region still lags behind the Americas and Europe, where the level of GDP per capita is about twice as high. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

China and India’s combined share of global GDP may approach 35% within the next decade. India is quite likely to overtake the U.S. to become the worlds second biggest country in GDP terms by 2032. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Thailand’s fertility rate has dropped to 1.2%, and decades of low fertility is now causing the working-age population to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Decades of low fertility are causing Romania’s working-age population to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

The quality of economic data, and in particular GDP data, is of considerable importance. A number of countries produce GDP data of such poor quality that it is of little value in determining the size and growth of economic activity. World Economics reviews quarterly GDP and Population data quality for 155+ countries. - - Governance is also of great importance. Research shows that countries with little respect for the rule of law, political rights and press freedom, tend to manipulate economic data in ways they see as favourable to themselves. Countries run by dictators have been shown to exaggerate annual economic growth by 30% or more. - - The table below shows the countries in the Emerging Markets we believe to have reasonable Governance and produce believable GDP and Population data. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

The - Potsdam Institute - for climate impact research (backed by the German Government) estimates the increasing damage from rising temperatures and changes in rainfall is likely to reach $38 trillion per year by 2050. This cost burden is already being felt, as illustrated by rising - insurance premiums - . Whilst the overall burden is very high, some countries are far more vulnerable to this damage than others. The chart below shows a selection of countries ranging from the least to the most likely to be impacted. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Russia’s - Governance Index - rating has declined sharply over the last decade. Consequently, Russia now sits close to the very bottom of the 156 countries included in the Index table, alongside the likes of Sudan, Myanmar and Afghanistan. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Decades of low fertility are causing Slovakia’s working-age population to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

India is the third largest country in the world when measured in GDP PPP terms. Furthermore, it is possible that India will - overtake - the USA within a decade as the world’s second largest economy. However, climate change will likely be a key challenge facing the country over the coming decades. India already has a very high average temperature in comparison with other economically significant countries. Moreover, its average temperature has been rising over recent decades. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Pakistan’s rating has declined on the - World Economics Governance Index - over the last decade. Standards have fallen in the country across data reflecting corruption, the rule of law, press freedom and political rights. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Pakistan’s rating has declined on the - World Economics Governance Index - over the last decade. Standards have fallen in the country across data reflecting corruption, the rule of law, press freedom and political rights. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Decades of falling fertility are causing the working-age population of Japan to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger portion of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees. Estimates for 2025 suggest that Japan’s birth rate has likely fallen to a new historic low, below even the government’s most - pessimistic projections - . Consequently, the decline in Japan’s worker-to-retiree ratio is unlikely to be reversed. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Climate change has clearly arrived in Southeast Asia, with the region seeing a distinct rise in the number of extremely hot days over this past quarter century. The International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), which published the study, judges +35c as - extreme heat - . Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Decades of low fertility are causing the working-age population of Belgium to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Decades of low fertility are causing the working-age population of Czechia to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Across the past decade, Russia, Belarus, Hungary and Poland have all seen major falls in their ratings on the World Economics Governance Index. A major fall is defined as declining by 10 or more points on the Index. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Climate change is likely to cause many different problems ranging from rising sea levels to more erratic and severe weather patterns. While impossible to be sure of the precise impact of global warming, it is reasonable to suppose that those countries with the highest average temperatures today will be first in line to suffer serious problems. - - The - United Nations Climate Action Fast Facts - documentation lists (amongst others) the following items relating to temperature rise, that are already measurable: - - - 2015-2025 - includes the 11 warmest years on record; 2024 was the warmest single year (~1.55°C above pre-industrial), and 2025 was third-warmest. 2015-2024 was the warmest decade. - - Global surface temperature has increased faster since 1970 than in any other 50-year period over at least the last 2,000 years. - - On the current path of carbon dioxide emissions, temperature could increase by as much as 4.4°C by the end of the century. - - The - Earth is now about 1.4–1.42°C warmer - (decadal average) than in the 1800s (1850–1900 baseline). We are not on track to limit long-term warming to 1.5°C per the Paris Agreement; temporary breaches are occurring and more are likely without accelerated action. - - The table shows average temperatures over various periods for the ten currently hottest countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

India’s population is set to more than quadruple from 1950 to 2050, reaching a staggering 1.68 billion. The broader Asia region dominates the top ten ranking, accounting for half of the listed nations. China’s population is the only one in the top ten estimated to fall from - 2023 to 2050 - , moving from 1.42 billion to 1.26 billion. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Central banks the world over rely on deeply flawed data to make crucial decisions on interest rates. Few politicians, economists or bankers realise just how unreliable economic data has become in recent years. - - In the US the percentage of companies responding to two vital job surveys: the Bureau of Labour Statistics Non-Farm Payrolls (NFS) and Job Openings (JOLTS) has fallen dramatically since Covid. The release of the US Jobs data on the first Friday of each month still generates feverish anticipation in the financial markets, but how many realise that the response rate to the JOLTS survey has fallen from 65%+ to a little over 30% in just a few years. Anything close to a 30% response rate is unlikely to produce data good enough as the basis for vital decisions on monetary policy. - - The UK holds lead position for self-harm in respect of economic data quality, having decided to relocate the Office of National Statistics from central London to an obscure industrial park a 3 hour drive away. Some 90% of the previously London based ONS staff left their jobs, causing serious problems that persist to this day. - - The UK equivalent to the US Jobs surveys is the ONSs Labour Force Survey. It was designed to operate with a 55% response rate, but the length of the survey has been unwisely expanded, inevitably reducing response rates far below the desired level. In addition, as in many other countries, Covid led switches from in person to phone surveys brought survey response rates down further to (in the UK case) wholly unacceptable levels around 15% in 2023. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Decades of low fertility are causing Estonia’s working-age population to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Both the Sales and Market Growth Indexes improved in May from the dip seen in April, likely caused by shocks associated with the conflict in the Middle East. The May data points to demand conditions that remain strikingly resilient. - - Indias Headline SMI shows firm expansion in May with an SMI reading of 53.0, up from April, and indicative of strong business activity continuing from earlier in the year. That consistency is itself a signal worth noting over the full twelve-month series, the Headline SMI has ranged only between 52.4 and 53.9, a band of remarkable stability that contrasts sharply with the volatility evident in the comparable US survey. The broader picture is one of durable, consistent momentum. An economy generating growth without overheating and resilient to sudden shocks. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

From 1950 to 2024 there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of days of extreme heat in India according to the latest - Lancet Countdown report - (2025 edition). The International Institute for Environment and Development - defines - temperatures at 35c or above as extreme. At this point workers operating at moderate intensity - lose half of their - labour capacity according to the International Labour Organisation (ILO). Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

India’s - World Economics Governance Index - rating has declined over the last decade. India currently attains a C-grade on the Index table. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Despite an initial rise in its ratings, Argentina has since declined on the - World Economics Governance Index - and has continued below its 2016 rating in recent years. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Climate change is likely to cause many different problems ranging from rising sea levels to more erratic and severe weather patterns. While impossible to be sure of the precise impact of global warming, it is reasonable to suppose that those countries with the highest average temperatures today will be first in line to suffer serious problems. - - The - United Nations Climate Action Fast Facts - documentation lists (amongst others) the following items relating to temperature rise, that are already measurable: - - - 2015-2025 - includes the 11 warmest years on record; 2024 was the warmest single year (~1.55°C above pre-industrial), and 2025 was third-warmest. 2015-2024 was the warmest decade. - - Global surface temperature has increased faster since 1970 than in any other 50-year period over at least the last 2,000 years. - - On the current path of carbon dioxide emissions, temperature could increase by as much as 4.4°C by the end of the century. - - The - Earth is now about 1.4–1.42°C warmer - (decadal average) than in the 1800s (1850–1900 baseline). We are not on track to limit long-term warming to 1.5°C per the Paris Agreement; temporary breaches are occurring and more are likely without accelerated action. - - The table shows average temperatures over various periods for the ten currently hottest countries in the Americas. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Peru’s - World Economics Governance Index - rating has declined over the last decade. These ratings are linked to the grading of countries. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Decades of low fertility are causing Bulgaria’s working-age population to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Decades of low fertility are causing Slovenia’s working-age population to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Decades of falling fertility are causing the working-age population of Switzerland to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger portion of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Decades of low fertility are causing the Russian working-age population to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees. Attempts by the state to - increase the rate - appear to have been ineffective. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Americas support for Ukraine is no longer certain. What guarantee does the EU have of containing Russia without the big guns of the USA? Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Decades of low fertility are causing the working-age population of Greece to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

In 43 major world cities, the number of extremely hot days increased by 72% between 2000 and 2024. The International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), which published the study, judges +35c as - extreme heat - . Comparing individual years can exaggerate change, but a rising trend is clear when comparing the periods of 1994-2003 and 2015-2024, which, as the IIED notes, saw a 26% rise in the number of days of extreme heat. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

The ratings of 38 out of 46 African countries have declined on the - World Economics Governance Index - over the last decade. Almost two-thirds of African countries are currently rated poor to extremely poor (D- to E-grade) on the Index as a result. Only 6 countries are now rated B-grade, or good. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

As noted in our reviews of - Asian Governance - and - GDP Data Quality - , Asian GDP is bigger than that of Europe, the Americas and Africa combined. Asia accounts for well over half of global GDP. And Asian GDP growth has accounted for around 70% of global growth over the past decade. So, one might assume Asia should comprise over half of a global investment portfolio, by value... - - This Thought, (the third in our Asian Portfolio series) reviews which Asian countries remain as candidates for investment, after removing those with poor Governance and GDP Data Quality problems. The answer thrown up by this analysis is that Asia should probably occupy a much smaller percent of investment than the 50%+ suggested by size and growth alone. The problem with Asia is that this vast geographical space (however defined) includes many countries you probably wouldnt want to live or work in, and on whose data you cannot rely. - - The table below shows those Asian countries with both reasonable GDP Data Quality and reasonable Governance. All Asian countries not meeting the World Economics thresholds for Governance and Data Quality have been removed. Only 51% of Asian countries remain in the list. And many of the larger Asian countries have been removed including China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Philippines, Russia, and Vietnam. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Peru’s fertility rate has been broadly declining since the 1990s and is now sub-replacement. Retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. Simultaneously, the working-age population will start to shrink by the end of this decade. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Over the past 40 years the Chinese economy has achieved what many believe to be almost miraculous growth. Economists have attributed a big part of this growth to the fact that the working age population grew far faster than the young and old non-working dependents, a factor often described as the "demographic dividend". Currently this supposed dividend is disappearing, and it is often suggested that as a consequence, Chinas population will now age, before the extraordinary growth seen previously can deliver a standard of life comparable to that seen in Europe and the USA. Often summed up as "China is growing old before it can grow rich". - - New research from - Xin Meng of the Australian National University - provides evidence that this is a myth. The research shows that between 1982 and 2015 the increase in the working age population was largely offset by a decline in the labour force participation rate, resulting in a very limited increase in the labour supply. - - The reasons for the decline in labour force participation include mandatory retirement ages (55 for women), compulsory education and increasing university enrolment keeping under 25s out of the workforce, and the increasing cost of childcare keeping female labour force participation relatively low. - - The research concludes that there is little support for the view that China benefited from a demographic dividend. Consequently, there are ways the Government can act to counter the shrinking labour force, ranging from increasing the retirement age, to encouraging further movement into urban areas, and making childcare more affordable. - - Finally, the table below shows China remains some way from an extreme case of age dependency in Asia. Chinese demographics are not likely to halt (in the medium term at least) the countrys advance into the ranks of richer nations. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Between 2000 and 2025, the working-age population of Russia and many of its neighbouring states declined. Across the 8 countries listed below, the total population aged between 15 to 64 shrank by 13%. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

The world economy has radically changed over the past decade. The Asian share of global GDP has risen from 48%, and is likely to be around 57% by 2030. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Decades of low fertility are causing Portugal’s working-age population to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Decades of low fertility are causing the working-age population of Türkiye to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

China is the - biggest economy in the world - , estimated to be some 54% larger than the GDP of the USA in 2025, when calculated using - Purchasing Power Parity - data from the World Bank (with growth estimates from the IMF), and including estimates of the undervaluation of GDP due to an outdated - base year - , plus estimates of Chinas significant - informal economy - . - - - - China growth v US growth - - Over the past decade (2015-2025) China has - contributed 30% to global growth - , compared with the USAs contribution of 10%. - Compound Annual Growth over the last 3 years - has been 5.1%, around double the USA rate of 2.6%. Few predict Chinas growth differential in relation to the USA will disappear in the near future. - - - - Some reasons why Chinas GDP is likely to continue growing faster in the medium term than that of the USA - - Chinas GDP growth record is extraordinary; its education system is extraordinary (it graduates 1.4m engineers a year and over 20% of the worlds bachelor degrees); it is far ahead of all countries in patent applications; it has a vast and highly skilled workforce focussed on the most tech intensive industries; and suggestions that China will get old before it gets rich due to the ending of its "demographic dividend" have been debunked by a - recent paper - pointing out that demographic changes have not been a critical driver of increases in GDP per Capita. There is more, not least that Asia as a whole is by far the - biggest and fastest growing part - of the world economy. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.

Chinas GDP is already significantly larger than US GDP. India is likely to overtake the US within a decade, making the USA no 3 in the world. Chinas GDP will be about twice that of the US, and Indias is likely to be about 30% larger than today. A very different new world is developing much faster than most investors understand. Explore the full analysis and implications for global investment.