iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 5h

Rosemary’s Baby. I was probably 12 or 13, and babysitting in a neighbor’s house. The home was older, and very creaky. Between the movie and the “haunted” house, I was terrified for days. Don’t think I’ve watched the movie again.

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

You also can't be sure there would be discussions. This was part of Milley's discussion with Pelosi in Jan 2021. There is a communications process, but the President does not have to use it. He can wake up in a bad move and order a launch. Milley sought to ensure that he'd get a call first, but 🤷‍♀️

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Hyten said this at Halifax Forum, after Kehler said something similar at Senate hearing. We have evidence (from 2017 and recent Supreme Court rulings) that Trump may simply believe that orders from him cannot be "illegal" because they are from him. And we know his instincts are immune to advice.

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I would just like to highlight the point that it is ACDA, not DOD, that conducted this study. Maybe we need to recreate ACDA so that we can get more studies on the relationship between employment plans, command structures, and arms control

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Oh my. One of my mentors, too. Lost track of the numbers of meetings where we sat in the back of the room kibbitzing. 😟

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Jim Doyle contributed to a paper produced at Los Alamos. This copy is via NTI, although it was published in Science and Global Security www.nti.org/wp-content/u...

nti.org

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Are you referring to the joint project between the UK and Norway, with the support of Vertic, or something from the labs?

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

GPALs—global protection against limited strikes—was the Bush admin’s proposal in 1989. On land and in space. Basically, scaled back SDI. Nunn proposed ALPS-accidental launch protection system— just on land. ALPS was the subject of my very first CRS report in 1988.

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

There is a crypt under the Lincoln Memorial. 💁‍♀️

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

It's pretty easy to stop traffic and protect the route into the city from the area or Memorial Circle. A vibrant rush hour or an accident on the GW parkway will do it.

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Is this the "cheap shot" scenario, where the adversary can just add a few more missiles to saturate defense? Or is it the age-old unpopular notion of "protect the leaders, but let the people die?" And are we assuming that the bad guys think we won't nuke them back if they launch small numbers at us?

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

New rationale: The arch is not just going to shut down the evacuation routes out of the city, the snipers and drones (along with the ones on the ballroom) are going to be trained on the city, and force the people to stay in the city during a nuclear attack. To prove that radiation doesn't kill you 😳

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

The circle is in the middle of this picture, between all the cars on the bridge and the entrance to the cemetery. The Metro stop is also on that little road up the cemetery.

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

This is a really small circle! Drove around it twice last week, as I had to attend a funeral at Arlington.

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Also, if you shut down/reroute all these roads and routes out of the city and around northern VA, you really disrupt the FEMA plans for evacuation in the case of a nuclear attack on Washington (OK, they wouldn't have worked anyway, but wtf? leaving us all trapped in the city to die???)

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Would choke off access to the GW parkway, I395, the bridge, the cemetery, AND the Pentagon.

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

The circle is small and would probably become a military base. The circle is also a rotary, with roads going around it with access to the Memorial Bridge. So the bridge would have to be shut down (forever?) access to the cemetery denied, and all the roads rerouted. Has anyone done a traffic survey?

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

There's another factor here that makes uploading inconsistent with limited war: if you fully load the missiles, you reduce the range and tighten the footprint. So you are dumping all your warheads in a relatively smaller area. This may help with counterforce, but certainly isn't limited.

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Clean, clear crystal blue.

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

We had answers to this in the 1980s: Pershings were feared more than GLCMs. But, as Decker noted, now the Russians view both as a part of a more threatening integrated strategy of preemptive war. Decker knows more than me on current Russian thinking.

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

Poland would take them. I made the point at a conference In Poland that they would be a lucrative target for preemption and could invite attack. I was not invited back the next year. 😏

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

My answer: bombs go on aircraft that are slow to reach targets and vulnerable to air defense. So not a prompt strike threat. But missiles pose a prompt decapitation threat. Also, storage sites probably are on the list of early targets for preemption.

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

I think the guy in charge of our health care should understand that the absence of measles deaths and due to the presence of the measles vaccine. I think he should understand that, because there is no vaccine against food-borne illness, there's more of it.

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Missing: Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Nixon, Ford, Bush, and Bush.

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 16/08/2026

Things were different in the 1980s: the era of nuclear war scares and nuclear nightmares and The Day After and the nuclear freeze movement and the Euromissile crisis, etc. Climate change wasn’t the dominant existential fear yet. It may not have been widespread, but nuclear fear was palpable.

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Worst part about movie: Richard Perle was shown as devious, but not nearly as evil as he was IRL. Also, they threw in some classic Reagan lines that weren’t from the summit (like “trust but verify”). That type of flourish always bothers me. And it gave too much credit to Reagan..

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

I do not disagree, but I am laughing my a&& off at the idea. I was present at the destruction (at a different congressional agency) and the congressional hatred for facts and knowledge has only deepened since then.

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

It definitely felt like a scene from a bad movie.

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

Put in almost 30 miles on the bicycle today. The heat and humidity in Washington was a challenge, but not too bad. Some of the scenes and sites were familiar, some were appalling, and all were mixed in with fencing to around the reflecting pool, fences and scaffolding along the mall, and Humvees.

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

I was just gobsmacked that they thought he’d be a better fit for STRATCOM!

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

Of course it’s a bribe to him. That’s always obvious. But you are assuming the investments will actually materialize. He’ll brag about them, but investments occur over long periods of time, if they happen at all. This is an “out” from the original, illegal, tolls scheme.

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

Basically, the Gulf states offered him a bribe to avoid further disruptions to international shipping, and he’ll continue to brag about the “trillions” in investments pouring into the U.S, even though they will never happen. Art of the Deal. He’s such an easy mark.

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

If not credible, it’s par for the course for him, but it could be another case where he tries out the madman theory. Most important, though, he just told every authoritarian leader to get nukes as weapons of last resort and hope they can use that to protect themselves and coerce everyone else Fin)

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

I love this thread but it disturbing to know you had to think it through. Adding a few points: for Trump, an existential threat to him is an existential threat to the state because he lives by “l’etat cest moi” rules. Second, this is a deterrent threat; you’ve shown it probably isn’t credible (1)

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 05/07/2026

Fireworks after midnight. I could hear them 10 miles away in Chevy Chase.

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

This is the foundational principle of the entire arms control enterprise. You can see it in every negotiation and every treaty outcome. We'll do it if it does not get in the way of what we want to do. I make this point all the time.

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Avocado. In any form. Not in guac, not in a mash, not in slices. Not at all. Can't stand the taste and I can't stand the texture.

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

He didn't say the "Senate" should ratify the deal, he said "Congress" should ratify. So he's even further from reality. as the Senate gives advice and consent, not the "Congress." If he wants both houses to vote, they can call it an Executive Agreement and Congress can pass a joint resolution..

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 13/06/2026

Tarp is still there this afternoon

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

Yup. Like I said, they need to buy a bullpen. I also really don't like the way they manage the back end of the bullpen. Today was not the first time I found myself yelling at the manager....

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

They also have several very promising young players (i.e. today's starting lineup) who can either keep this going if there are major injuries, or move on to other teams in exchange for a decent reliever. (This 8th inning is a bit painful.)

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

We did have this debate in the 1980s. “Leadership targets” were high on the U.S. priority list after PD59, so some US analysts had the temerity to ask “who are you going to talk to about war termination?”

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 06/06/2026

Saving my key strokes for the rest of my post

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 06/06/2026

The state motto of Massachusetts, and a pick-up line that worked for years: I'm from Massachusetts, don't blame me." You could get it on bumper stickers and attach it to your high school notebook. Great for dates.

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woolaf @woolaf.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

The benefits of having someone leading the Anthropic Institute who has a background in the arms control and nuclear security community

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