Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 12hTop quintile forecasts should have a probability of around 20% if ‘normal’ heat expected. Sydney and north coast NSW, inland Qld, the tropical north and even NE Tassie over 80% chance - more than quadruple the normal chance of summer extreme heat 0177
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 13hI have NEVER seen a BoM extreme (chance of top 20% of all years) maximum temperature outlook with numbers as high as this. And this is for summer 2026-27. Crikey. Sydney with a shocking high chance of extremes - watch out in the western suburbs. Can’t rule out 50C www.bom.gov.au/climate/outl... 77659
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 14/10/2026Back in Canberra this week talking climate change mitigation, adaptation and resilience building ahead of a hot El Niño summer, with the @climatecouncil.org.au 0100
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 13/10/2026I’ve been in Canberra this week talking to politicians about climate change risk, adaptation and mitigation. I stopped at the Prime Minister’s portraits for inspiration. What would Gough do? 161
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 05/10/2026The one lonely 0cm dot in September was 2026. Weekly snow depthdata from Spencers Creek since 1954 (72 years) at snowdepth.info 032
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 04/10/2026And Oct-Dec 2015 was seriously hot in the southeast... www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/tem... 040
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Spring 2015 also a strong El Nino and one of the largest ozone holes on record/strong polar vortex www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps... 160
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Looks like it was a very warm spring and early summer almost everywhere - and that was without an additional 20 years of global warming www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/tem... 021
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Last year we had the opposite - La Niña (wet for Aus) and Antarctic sudden stratospheric warming (dry for Aus!). Outcome was a combo of both(plus climate change) www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps... 000
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Current outlook for Oct-Dec www.bom.gov.au/jsp/sco/arch... 3102
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Last time we had an El Nino+strong polar vortex was 2006, which was kinda wet and dry! 183
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Big Ozone hole and strong polar vortex typically results in positive Southern Annular mode and hence a wetter impact on Australia www.bom.gov.au/climate/sam/ 161
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Ozone Hole / Polar vortex atmosphere.copernicus.eu/monitoring-o... ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/... 141
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 04/10/2026El Nino (relative ONI): dashboard.theclimatebrink.com#enso 140
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 03/10/2026August 12 2016 vs August 12 2026: Carstensz Glacier in West Papua, last glacier in tropical Indo-Pacific. Climate Change + 2026 El Nino = almost gone forever. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carsten... 2016: browser.dataspace.copernicus.eu?zoom=14&lat=... 2026: browser.dataspace.copernicus.eu?zoom=14&lat=... 193
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Mount Hotham October 3 2025 (snow) vs October 2 2026 (wet grass). 1288
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 02/10/2026ICYMI: Australian ski resorts had originally planned to close this weekend - in fact they closed a month ago, at the end of the High Country's warmest winter on record, a season where warm rain dominated snow. 54714
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Today’s Melbourne rainfall so far (34mm) is almost twice it’s total rainfall of last month (18.4mm). www.baywx.com.au/melbrain.html www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/... 0113
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Correct me if I'm wrong, but seems we have equaled the largest temperature departure from normal (+0.73 on 10 Jan 2024) in the global ocean since records began. If the 2023 El Nino (blue line) is a guide, still more ocean warming to come. #buckleup pulse.climate.copernicus.eu?fbclid=IwY2x... 23822
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 28/09/2026The image of the tree in the top right is one I took - from near Coronation Beach, 20km north of Geraldton, Western Australia, in 2007. www.bom.gov.au/climate/drou... 170
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 28/09/2026So BoM, are you saying there have been no climate events worthy of a Special Climate Statement in Australia in 2.5 years? Not even the heatwave in January 2026 that saw 49C reached somewhere in Australia for 6 days in a row, and the worlds most southern 50C on record? www.bom.gov.au/climate/curr... 2238
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 28/09/2026War! What is it good for? Absolutely Nothing! [But if you pick the Middle East to wage it, it does lower global carbon emissions from oil and gas] www.iea.org/reports/oil-... and media articles www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-glo... and www.washingtonpost.com/business/202... 010
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 27/09/2026While all the talk has been about 2027 being odds on to be the globes hottest year on record (as post-El Nino years see a global boost in warmth), 2026 has quietly slipped into a "more likely than not (ie >50%)" chance of becoming the globes hottest year. dashboard.theclimatebrink.com#global 510144
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 26/09/2026The 19.3°C at Perisher on Thursday was probably the warmest day of lift skiing Australia has ever had! (January - Perishers hottest month of the year - has an average temperature of 19.7°C. No other month exceeds 19°C) 030
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 26/09/2026Pretty much sums up Snow Season 2026 in Australia. Perisher (NSW) and Hotham (Vic) had their hottest July day on record, then hottest August day on record, and then hottest September day on record. @protectourwinters.bsky.social 1105
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 25/09/2026The final ski run on the final day of the final ski resort open in Australian snow season 2026. www.perisher.com.au/reports-cams... 095
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 21/09/2026Sadly the gun has been well and truly jumped by the @theguardian.com with this one. El Niño is not yet the strongest on record, even in the latest weekly data. But it seems almost inevitable that it will be. *you have to use a relative index at least a month long to claim an El Niño record. 062
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 21/09/2026New Intergenerational Report from the Australian government thinks disaster funding will just be a nice smooth requirement into the future with only a small difference between "paris aligned" [code for 1.5C, which we know will be exceeded already] and "more than 3C" which would be catastropic. !WTF! 75334
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 21/09/2026New Treasury Intergenerational Report has said "we cant model the impacts outlined in the National Climate Risk Assessment so we'll do a conservative estimate across 4 broad sectors". If this isn't at least one to two orders of magnitude out, I'll be monkeys uncle treasury.gov.au/sites/defaul... 1147
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 21/09/2026Early snapper season? Port Phillip sea surface temperature currently running warmest this century, about a month ahead of normal. www.baywx.com.au/temps.html 074
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 19/09/2026More than half of September gone and less than 20% of normal September rainfall recorded, with 'bugger all' in the ten day forecast. Worth keeping an eye on the heat too, as flash drought looks decidedly possible. Observed: www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps... Forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rai... 0158
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 16/09/2026The PNG National Weather Service Drought Early Warning System has been warning of drought for some time. www.facebook.com/share/p/1K8W... The PNG DEWS is issued monthly by PNG-NWS, and was built by a collaboration between the PNG-NWS, the UN, and BoM. 272
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 14/09/2026Bugger… IOD up again. Not exactly what we want to see in spring when the rNINO34 is at +2.5 www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso... 171
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 10/09/2026August 2026 was the globes hottest month ever recorded, beating July 2023 by a bees whatsit. Sea surface temperatures also had their hottest day(s) ever recorded. Made possible by the burning of coal, oil and gas: it would not have happened by El Niño alone. climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-a... 1138
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 07/09/2026Q Article on our future summers, and future summer sport and recreation. Quotes from me and @lindenashcroft.bsky.social with some solastalgia comments from me at the end www.sbs.com.au/news/article... 072
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 05/09/2026In terms of snow depth x snow days, 2026 was the worst natural snow season on record at Spencers Creek NSW (1830m) - Australia’s longest high quality snow observations at high elevation. snowdepth.info 062
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 03/09/2026As I just mentioned on ABC NewsRadio, I have never seen 10 degC anomalies on an El Nino subsurface chart before. That is cray cray. (But then again, with >90% of excess energy trapped by Greenhouse Gases going into the Ocean, is it really?) www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso... 21611
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 03/09/2026Major observed impacts to the global corals, from the report 000
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 02/09/2026My career…. 2009 Melb heatwave, Black Saturday, TC Yasi, Black Summer, 2022 NSW/SE Qld flood, 2019 Aus hottest and driest year (despite no El Nino), TC Alfred. Never the time to discuss climate change mitigation … 0399
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 30/08/2026On Saturday Hotham reached 11.1°C. The forecast for tomorrow is 11°C. The (now previous) record hottest August maximum temperature recorded at Hotham was 10.7°C on 29 August 2006. And the August average maximum is +0.7°C (zero point seven) 1166
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 28/08/2026The 2026 El Niño is second only to 1997 when you account for climate change, but easily first if you leave climate change in. Nice 2026 El Niño article by Emily Becker at climate.us (the former climate.gov killed by the Orange One). 1104
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 28/08/2026Likely hottest winter on record (1910-2026) in Vic, Tas and possibly NSW. Latest video from BoM also shows emerging dry. No wonder the snow season was so short… Video at www.bom.gov.au/climate/outl... 54925
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 24/08/2026And 5°C and raining at Hotham too… that might be almost be snow season over. www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV... 240
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 24/08/2026August 22 was the global ocean’s hottest day on record. pulse.climate.copernicus.eu 164
Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 23/08/2026Research experimental drought risk map - dark red is drought critical, orange drought warning, grey lowest drought risk 000