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The year is 2026, and you are a hyperscaler CEO. You zip up your Patagonia Vest, type UDPATE CALENDER WHERE WHY to your Muse agent, and it tells you that your CFO has sent you an email about something called a “critical finance meeting,” and you roll your

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The year is 2026, and you are a hyperscaler CEO. You zip up your Patagonia vest, type UPDATE ME ON CALENDOR TOODAY into ChatGPT, and see that you have a meeting with your CFO. They tell you that while they _love_ all those GPUs you’re buying for those

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According to The Information, in early 2024, Broadcom CEO Hock Tan hosted a “coffee chat” with employees of the recently-acquired VMWare, and introduced them to his particular brand of management: > At that time, VMware’s Palo Alto, Calif., campus sprawled over 18 buildings and 100 acres

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You know, sometimes it’s kind of hard to explain the “circular” part of circular financing to people, in the sense that some of the agreements are kind of _clunky._ NVIDIA funds OpenAI, who then spends that money to rent back NVIDIA GPUs from Microsoft, Google, Amazon,

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_[NVIDIA Company Meeting, the present day, YMCA playing]_ **JENSEN HUANG _:_** We _love_ NVIDIA, don’t we folks? We’re the biggest, most-beautiful semiconductor company, we make the biggest, hottest GPUs for Clammy Sammy__ and Wario Amodei’s huge, beautiful AI labs, _but they can’t_

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I’ve heard from people in the past that my articles are too long, and I wanted to start by saying that, for the most part, they’re going to stay long, because I feel like the only way for me to make my arguments is to be

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For a little under a year, everyone — myself included — has compared NVIDIA to Enron, largely because NVIDIA insisted, in detail, that it was nothing like Enron, WorldCom, or Lucent, a potent example of the Streisand Effect that would be much funnier if NVIDIA wasn’t holding up

**Executive Summary:** * Microsoft disclosures and Bloomberg analyses show that OpenAI's compute spend and revenue share accounted for 70% or more of Microsoft's FY26 AI revenues, and more than 7% of Microsoft's overall FY2026 revenues. * Microsoft has spent $261.3 billion in capital expenditures since

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A great deal of the discussion of the so-called benefits or problems with AI comes down to the theoretical jobs that are (or are not) lost as a result of things LLMs can (or cannot do), or the equally theoretical productivity benefits that’ll come from using LLMs

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**_Good morning premium subscribers! As ever, please ping me at ez@betteroffline.com if you have any questions._** * * * Oracle has one of the strongest mythologies in the tech industry. Ask a regular person and they’ll tell you that it’s “incredibly profitable” and “growing

**Thanks for reading this week’s free Where’s Your Ed At newsletter. Friday’s premium newsletter will ask the simple question: Is Oracle dying?** **It’s been one year since I launched the premium newsletter, and I’ve decided to extend the discount**

_Thanks for reading this week’s free Where’s Your Ed At newsletter. As I said last week, I’m taking the rest of this week off, so there won’t be a premium on Friday. That said, if you aren’t already a member,_

_Hi premium readers! I’ll be taking a week off of the premium next week — July 17 — to have some well-earned rest. This will mark only the second time I’ve missed a premium piece since I started this newsletter in June 2025, and I_

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_Soundtrack:_ Ozzy Osbourne — Mr. Crowley A lot of people have been making a lot of fun of the SoftBank 46th annual shareholder meeting and Masayoshi Son’s (to quote Bryce Elder of the Financial Times) Untethered Goose Game, specifically referring to slides that, well, looked like this: As

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It’s been an incredibly long few weeks, and as a result my previously-planned Hater’s Guide just isn’t possible within what little time I have left in this week, which is why I’m starting an ongoing series — Notes From The Bubble

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So it’s been a big week for me after I published an exclusive covering OpenAI’s audited financials from 2024 and 2025, with reactions ranging from “oh my god, OpenAI spent $34 billion to make $13.07 billion in revenue!” to “actually, it’

_Soundtrack:_ In Flames - Colony _To further support my independent journalism, please subscribe to my premium newsletter. It’s $7 a month or $70 a year. If you’re subscribed to the free newsletter and logged in, you should see at the bottom right hand corner of your screen_

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Friends, I believe we’re approaching the end of this era. Both OpenAI and Anthropic have filed the paperwork to go public, starting a race for exit liquidity for two companies that burn billions of dollars a year and have no path to profitability. Both of these companies are

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Last year I wrote one of my favourite pieces ever — The Hater’s Guide To The AI Bubble — and followed it up with The Hater’s Guide To The AI Bubble Volume 2 several months later. Sadly, I’ve realized “volume” is a

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Last week I ran the second part of my three-part “What If…We’re In An AI Bubble?” series where I have been covering the scenarios that I believe could lead to the bubble popping. Here’s what I’ve discussed so far: * What

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Last week I ran the first part of my What If…We’re In An AI Bubble? Series, where I asked questions and posed scenarios as to the consequences of the many, many questions I’ve asked over the last few years. It quickly became one of

## Executive Summary: * The Information reports that OpenAI generated $5.7bn in revenue for the first quarter of 2026 based on discussions with sources familiar with its financials. * With adjusted negative margins of -122%, this means that for every dollar of revenue OpenAI made, it lost an additional $1.22, or

Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal ran a story about how Anthropic is “about to have its first profitable quarter,” specifically an _operating_ profit, or EBITDA profitability: > Anthropic’s revenue is set to more than double to $10.9 billion in the second quarter, an explosive rate of

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Every day I read some sort of wrongheaded extrapolation about the future of AI — that today’s models are somehow indicative of AGI creating a “permanent underclass” of people that stops people from building software companies, or really doing any kind of job on the computer:

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In this week’s free newsletter, I explained how bad the circular AI economy is in the simplest-possible terms: > Anthropic not have money to pay big cloud bills, because Anthropic company cost lots of money, more money than Anthropic make! So Anthropic only PAY cloud bills if OTHERS

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Everyone, it’s time to talk about AI demand and the capacity constraint issues across the industry. These constraints are not a result of “incredible demand” for AI, but the desperation of hyperscalers and the avariciousness of two near-trillion-dollar failsons living off their parents’ welfare. Just

## Executive Summary: * The Information reports that OpenAI projects that its $20-a-month ChatGPT Plus subscriptions will decrease from 44 Million subscribers in 2025 to a projected 9 million subscribers in 2026. * OpenAI projects to make up the difference by increasing its ad-supported ChatGPT Go ($5 or $8-a-month depending on the region)

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**Hello premium subs! This is your ad-free free newsletter for the week. Questions? Queries? Email me at ez@betteroffline.com, and if you have a scoop, ezitron.76 is my Signal.** * * * Yesterday morning, GitHub Copilot users got confirmation of something I’d reported a week ago — that all

_Soundtrack —_ Brass Against — Karma Police__ * * * It was January 21, 2025. Per The Information, Larry Ellison, CEO of Oracle, had just flown to Washington DC from Florida, and had to borrow a coat “...so he wouldn’t freeze during an interview he did on the White