Sign in

AnObserver

@watchingeurasia.bsky.social
77 followers 207 following 1.8K posts

Geopolitics, Finance/Markets, Occasional AI & Environmental News. I study authoritarianism for fun. Working to address the toxic drug crisis.

PostsRepliesMedia
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 3h
‘By limiting the objective strictly to the tactical and operational neutralization of the adversary, NATO intends to deny the enemy any pretext for escalation … placing the moral and strategic burden of expanding the war squarely on the aggressor.’ www.nytimes.com/2026/10/12/w...
nytimes.com
NATO Details Plan to Shield Ukraine’s European Allies From Russia
With the Russians intensifying sabotage, arson and cyberattacks against European nations supporting Ukraine, NATO divulged a blueprint, in case of war, to deter the Kremlin.
000
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
Russia faced 50,000 casualties in Ukraine last month while the Ukrainians suffered only 5,000. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Russia Suffered 50,000 Casualties Last Month, NATO Official Says
Russia had more than 50,000 casualties in Ukraine last month, with as many as 28,000 personnel killed — vastly more than losses by Ukrainian forces, according to a senior NATO military official.
000
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
‘Countries with greater economic inequality also tended to have lower trust in science, as did places where people had less confidence in public institutions or perceived greater corruption.’ 3/3
010
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
‘The findings come as misinformation and conspiracy theories complicate responses to health threats, and scientific institutions in some countries face growing political and funding pressures.’ 2/3
100
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
‘The Covid-era surge in public trust in science has largely faded, with the steepest drop among people struggling financially, according to one of the largest global surveys of attitudes toward science.’ This is a disaster & will cost lives. 1/3 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Trust in Science Falls as Covid-Era Confidence Fades, Global Survey Finds
The Covid-era surge in public trust in science has largely faded, with the steepest drop among people struggling financially, according to one of the largest global surveys of attitudes toward science...
100
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
‘…a decade after the populists rose to power by asserting national interests over all else, we’re more connected than ever. Globalization is not merely alive. It remains on the march, whether we like it or not.’ 7/7
000
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
‘We’re trading more ideas too. The number of academic papers with co-authors at institutions in different countries has grown rather than shrunk over the past decade, according to OECD data.’ 6/7
100
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
‘Since 2016 the number of people using the internet around the world has almost doubled, to more than 6 billion, according to the International Telecommunications Union.’ 5/7
100
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
‘America, meanwhile, is also trading more than it used to. Despite Trump’s tariffs, in the first eight months of this year the US imported $500 billion more by value in inflation-adjusted real terms than it did in the comparable period in 2016.’ 4/7
100
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
‘In Asia, Europe and Latin America, the biggest economic story is that China is exporting far more than it was in 2016 and that what’s been called China Shock 2.0 has arrived.’ 3/7
100
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
‘In many ways the rules-driven and technocrat-led global order targeted in 2016 looks fragile at best. But political fragmentation is different from what’s actually happened to the economy.’ 2/7
100
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
‘Despite all the trade barriers that have been erected, the safe economic wager increasingly looks like a world of enduring or even a deepening interdependence.’ GIFT LINK 1/7 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Populists Are Losing Their War on Globalization
A decade after Brexit and Trump’s election, the global economy is more integrated than it was before the populist backlash began.
100
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
‘No presidential candidate since Brazil’s redemocratization in the 1980s has won a runoff election after losing in the first round.’ Candidates who placed 3rd, 4th, & 5th were right wing. Their supporters will probably vote for Bolsonaro as well. GIFT LINK foreignpolicy.com/2026/10/09/b...
foreignpolicy.com
Brazil’s Far-Right Resurgence
The Bolsonaro family looks likely to retake the presidency.
001
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
‘…the underlying rationale for renewed cooperation remains, and go-it-alone strategies are likely to be much less effective.’ ‘The United States and its allies admit that they are not prepared for the very real prospect of simultaneous conflicts in East Asia and Europe.’ 2/2
000
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
‘Today, a revived coalition of the United States and its key allies and partners would dwarf the economic might, technological acumen, defense capability, and diplomatic clout of Russia and China.’ GIFT LINK 1/2 foreignpolicy.com/2026/10/08/r...
foreignpolicy.com
America’s Best Answer to the China-Russia Alliance
Washington can exploit friction, strengthen allies, and make the axis harder to sustain.
100
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Russia’s hybrid war on Europe enters a new phase:‘European Union ambassadors recently met to discuss the possibility of a mass-casualty event caused by sabotage or other forms of state-sponsored violence, Politico reported Wednesday.’ GIFT LINK foreignpolicy.com/2026/10/09/r...
foreignpolicy.com
Russian Sabotage in Europe Is No Longer ‘Symbolic’
The Kremlin’s strategy has entered a dangerous new phase, Estonia’s counterintelligence chief says.
041
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
‘OpenAI has revealed that it is making about $20bn less in projected revenue than it had recently indicated to investors, raising questions about the break-neck growth rate in demand for AI.’ www.theguardian.com/technology/2...
theguardian.com
OpenAI projected to bring in $20bn less in revenue than expected
Questions raised over AI growth as ChatGPT maker forecasts this year’s revenue at $50bn, way below the $70bn signalled before
000
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
‘So should the record high in stocks be viewed as the market’s stamp of approval on the Trump administration? Hardly. It’s more luck than a sign of effective policy.’ No wonder Trump is so in favour of data centres. 3/3
000
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
‘It’s impossible to know when exactly a bubble will burst, but what is certain is that the market will crumble, and probably spectacularly, if investor sentiment turns against AI.’ 2/3 www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
The Trump Stock Market Is Lousy for Most
President Donald Trump has long viewed the stock market as a referendum on his performance. Although the S&P 500 Index closed at an all-time high this week, it did so on the strength of a handful ...
100
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
‘Consider that Tuesday marked the first time that the S&P 500 rose to a new high with just 30% of members above their 50-day moving averages.’ Worse than dot-com: ‘the narrowest market high in the 1998-2000 period saw 41% of S&P 500 constituents in an uptrend.’ 1/3
100
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
‘President Donald Trump said Russian leader Vladimir Putin had agreed to release diesel supplies into the global market, as the administration looks to tame price hikes for the critical fuel.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Trump Says Putin Agreed to Release Diesel Into Global Market
President Donald Trump said Russian leader Vladimir Putin had agreed to release diesel supplies into the global market, as the administration looks to tame price hikes for the critical fuel.
000
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Via the NYT piece: ‘Three aircraft carriers will soon be in the Middle East, a massive assembly of force, and the Pentagon, on Mr. Trump’s orders, has developed plans to strike Iran’s drone and missile arsenal, energy facilities and other military sites.’ 3/3
000
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
‘The U.S. military is preparing options to restart major combat operations against Iran, even as President Trump continues to show ambivalence about restarting the war, according to American officials.’ GIFT LINK 2/3 www.nytimes.com/2026/10/08/u...
nytimes.com
Trump Says U.S. Will Not Strike Iran Again Before Midterms as Military Draws Up New Plans (Gift Article)
The U.S. military has drafted options for three days of strikes, but in recent months the president has repeatedly vetoed plans to restart the war.
100
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
In the next round of war, Iran May strike harder… ‘[Tehran’s leadership] would be betting that the very wounds inflicted on it from outside will only draw Iranians closer—and that the Iranian government increasingly has little left to lose.’ GIFT LINK 1/3 foreignpolicy.com/2026/10/08/n...
foreignpolicy.com
The Next Iran War Is This Iran War
The Iran war is, and always was, about regime change.
100
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
‘…every Russian hybrid attack should drive allies to increase their support for Ukraine. Since 2022, Putin has used every tool imaginable to stop the flow of assistance to Kyiv.’ One of many options NATO has to combat Russian hybrid warfare. 4/4
000
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
‘Amid this upheaval, the alliance’s momentum on hybrid warfare slowed to a crawl. Despite an agreement among allies in 2024 to deliver a new Russia strategy at the 2025 summit … it never materialized. The summit declaration didn’t even mention Russia’s hybrid war.’ 3/4
101
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
‘When I visited NATO headquarters in November 2025 and asked former colleagues how they were spending their time, one country’s permanent representative answered, “We spend most of our time managing you.”’ Meaning the United States under Trump. 2/4
100
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
‘These attacks are designed to fracture the alliance’s unity, test the strength of members’ commitment to Article 5—the principle that an attack on one member is an attack on all—and raise the cost of supporting Ukraine.’ GIFT LINK 1/4 www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...
foreignaffairs.com
Russia’s Hybrid War Has Entered a Dangerous New Phase
Julianne Smith, who represented the United States at NATO during the Biden administration, argues that Russian hybrid warfare in Europe is escalating quickly, and NATO is not doing enough to deter it....
111
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
I believe the death rate is around 17% (antibiotics can treat it) for this type of plague unless it is an illegal human-engineered pan-resistant biological weapon. Without antibiotics the death rate is 100%. Quarantine and death likely means it is a weapon. Hard to say for sure. 2/2
000
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Worth watching this CNN segment on the literally plague outbreak in Russia. We should be concerned. ‘Russia has been investing heavily in expanding its biological weapons program.’ youtu.be/WRGtClceHJE?...
youtu.be
Trump on potential plague case in Russia: ‘Big problem’
YouTube video by CNN
010
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
‘The death of a worker at an anti-plague laboratory in Russia has prompted officials to put at least one hospital facility under quarantine and nearly 200 people reportedly under medical observation as of Monday.‘ Spooky. I’ll explain… 1/2 www.nbcnews.com/world/europe...
nbcnews.com
Russian lab worker dies of suspected plague as 200 enter medical observation
The female staffer at the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute of Siberia and the Far East died from a “pneumonia of undetermined” origin last week, according to a regional governor.
100
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
‘Israel is at risk of internal collapse or civil war because of tensions among Israelis, an August report by CIA experts tasked with providing “alternative analysis” said, according to a report by Drop Site News published on Monday.’ www.middleeasteye.net/news/alterna...
middleeasteye.net
CIA report warns of civil conflict and 'collapse' in Israel: Report
The agency's 'alternative analysis' notes Israel's domestic fissures over conscription, settler violence and mental health of returning soldiers
000
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Quebec votes - live blog via CBC. www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
cbc.ca
Quebec election: Voters head to the polls to choose next provincial government | CBC
000
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Election projection: ‘President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and conservative challenger Flávio Bolsonaro are projected to go to a runoff in Brazil, setting up a battle over whether Latin America’s largest nation will join a regional swing to the right.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Bolsonaro, Lula Set to Face Off in Brazil Runoff, Datafolha Says
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and conservative challenger Flávio Bolsonaro are projected to go to a runoff in Brazil, setting up a battle over whether Latin America’s largest nation will join a ...
010
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Looks like Brazil will head to a runoff on October 25.
010
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Close first round in Brazil… As in Bolsonaro is close to winning. www.bloomberg.com/news/live-bl...
100
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
‘Righteous citizens find themselves in a perpetual state of shock and disbelief. How could this be?, they ask. A cynical Russian would tell them to learn the lesson captured in the phrase “there is no rock bottom.”’ By @storyevtime.bsky.social & Maria Kuznetsova. foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/25/r...
foreignpolicy.com
6 Russian Words for a Country Sliding Into Authoritarianism
How ordinary people describe power, repression, absurdity, and life under Putin.
023
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Just a fun fact: ‘With a population of only 23 million, Taiwan has catapulted to become the fourth-largest trading partner of the United States.’ www.foreignaffairs.com/taiwan/comin...
foreignaffairs.com
The Coming Taiwan Crisis
Use today’s calm to prepare for the next perfect storm.
000
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
‘Michelle opposes abortion and sexual freedom while defending the traditional family and a patriarchal hierarchy that places women’s authority below that of their husbands. Her public record on domestic violence is thin.’ 4/4
000
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
‘According to polls, Michelle leads her Senate race. In a separate national survey, 15.4 percent of respondents named her as Brazil’s most powerful woman, ahead of first lady Janja da Silva at 9 percent.’ 3/4
100
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
‘She traveled across Brazil, recruiting new members and encouraging conservative women to enter politics. Bolsonaristas cast her as an ideal: devoted to her husband; guided by God; and, in Michelle’s own words, “feminine, not feminist.”’ 2/4
100
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
‘According to opinion polls, more Brazilian women prefer Lula over Flávio. Michelle’s [Jair Bolsonaro’s 3rd wife] influence could change that—and set an example for how far-right groups can attract women worldwide.’ GIFT LINK 1/4 foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/25/b...
foreignpolicy.com
The Woman Remaking Brazil’s Far Right
Former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro is playing a key role in her stepson’s presidential campaign.
100
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
‘Bolsonaro … assumes that “middle powers will be engulfed by the gravitational pull” of either the United States or China, in de Souza’s words, and that Brazil understands itself as part of the Western Hemisphere.’ 4/4
000
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
‘During [Jair’s] 2019-2022 administration, Brazil grew its trade relationship with China, disregarded U.S. pressure to completely cut Chinese telecom giant Huawei out of its 5G network, and remained active in the BRICS geopolitical club that it co-founded with Beijing.’ 3/4
100
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
‘Jair Bolsonaro visited Taiwan and accused China of “buying Brazil” ahead of his 2018 election—but in office, that critical rhetoric faded away under the weight of the Brazil-China economic relationship.’ 2/4
100
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
On Brazil-China relations: ‘On China … Trump’s stated goal that “non-Hemispheric competitors” will not “own or control strategically vital assets” would hit constraints, even under a sympathetic Bolsonaro presidency.’ GIFT LINK 1/4 foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/21/b...
foreignpolicy.com
How Flávio Bolsonaro Sees the World
Brazil’s far-right presidential hopeful wants to step up ties with Washington. But like his father, he would struggle to spurn Beijing.
100
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
‘That turbulence could fuel further polarization and reward populists whose promised solutions are unlikely to fix the structural flaws holding back growth.’ This quote is from the piece linked above but I’m attaching another excellent one from 2024. 2/2 www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
foreignaffairs.com
Populism’s Broken Economic Promises
Countries with populist leaders get left behind.
000
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
On Latin America: ‘All this sets the stage for more political swings in the coming years, as climate change [El Niño] and geopolitical shifts [Strait of Hormuz] generate shocks at a pace difficult for any government to contend with.’ Brazil tomorrow… 1/2 www.foreignaffairs.com/latin-americ...
foreignaffairs.com
The Two Shocks Upending Latin America
Why the region must brace for a new wave of turbulence.
101
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
‘Undoing this would be the financial equivalent of a tide rushing out before a tsunami strikes. The first hint of what it could look like came in 2024.’ 2/2
000
AnObserver @watchingeurasia.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
‘One Treasury Department estimate, which reflects a number of factors including the carry trade, says that as of mid-2025, Japanese investors owned around $2.8 trillion of U.S. equities, bonds and other assets.’ GIFT LINK 1/2 www.nytimes.com/2026/09/28/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | There’s a New Threat to Your Personal Finances (Gift Article)
The revival of Japan’s economy isn’t all good news.
113