Sign in

Cornelius Hirsch

@vollcornhirsch.online
1.4K followers 765 following 272 posts

Data, politics, and what happens in between. Head of Research Products at Reset Tech—Internet for democracy | Former Director of Research and Analysis at POLITICO | PhD in Economics from WU Vienna | Co-founder pollofpolls.eu.

PostsRepliesMedia
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 17/04/2026
Two interviews. Two countries. Two names. One of them mine. 🇦🇹 ORF's ZIB2 had my alter ego Clemens on for their FPÖ 70th anniversary history special. But it's the message that matters: 1/
230
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 12/04/2026
Historic! Hungary: With 91.9% of the votes processed, the TISZA Party has secured a projected 138 seats, crossing the threshold for a two-thirds constitutional supermajority. Magyar’s party sweeping 94 of 106 individual districts and maintaining a 16-point lead in the popular vote (53.7%).
With 91.9% of the votes processed, the TISZA Party has secured a projected 138 seats, crossing the threshold for a two-thirds constitutional supermajority. Magyar’s party sweeping 94 of 106 individual districts and maintaining a 16-point lead in the popular vote (53.7%).
0112
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 17/02/2025
6 days to go until the German federal election. Here are the latest polling trends. Charts from 👉https://corneliushirsch.com/data-analysis/what-data-tells-us-about-the-upcoming-german-election/
130
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 06/02/2025
🇩🇪 German Election Polling Update: A Blowback for Merz or Just Noise? 📊 If we zoom in on the German polling trends over the past three weeks there is no clear sign of a significant shift or drop. The numbers remain largely stable, at least for now. Chart from corneliushirsch.com/data-analysi....
120
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 04/02/2025
No visible shift in the polling trends for the German federal election from the few new polls out that came out over the weekend. Still waiting for more polls with field work periods after Friday's vote in the German parliament. Interactive version of the chart available on corneliushirsch.com.
092
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 22/01/2025
This Saturday, I'm excited to join Daniel Boppert and moderator Clara Ruthardt for a deep-dive session at Europe's first Political Tech Summit on: What Data Can and Can't Do – Advancing Democratic Good with Evidence-Based Strategies 🗓️ January 25, 2025 ⏰ 3:15 PM 📍 Deep Dive Stage www.politicaltech.eu
010
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 06/12/2024
I'm happy to share that I will be speaking at Europe's first Political Tech Summit. Take a look at my session and make a note of the time slot. See you in Berlin on January 25?
130
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 04/12/2024
I’ll take it. #SpotifyWrapped
000
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 20/11/2024
Missing BSW which stands at around 7% in the pollofpolls.eu.
000
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 18/11/2024
Not to forget uboot . com of course, and schülervz.
010
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 18/11/2024
Joining questionable tech platforms since 2007.
2131
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 18/11/2024
In den Einstellungen der Mitteilungen gibts bei mir diesen Button. Aber scheint erst die Beta Version zu sein.
0150
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 17/11/2024
#venividimaxi unvergessen. Zib2 vom 11. September 2018. @arminwolf.at gratuliert @maximilianwerner.at zum bestandenen Nachzipf der in Vorarlberg aber Nachzapf heißt.
0100
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 13/11/2024
I'm currently using Redact to delete my tweets and likes from Twitter and it feels great. Going to keep the handle to avoid it getting misused but not giving data to Grog and will shut down the account for good. Bluesky and Linkedin are enough.
170
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 05/11/2024
Want to set an alarm for US election results tonight? Here are the European times when polling stations close and when to expect results. Screenshot from corneliushirsch.com. Full list here: corneliushirsch.com/data-analysi...
030
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 30/10/2024
The least surprising notification you can get on your phone.
100
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 22/10/2024
Moin Harry
130
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 30/09/2024
The first chart shows voting patterns by formal education level. Shows, as always, a strong negative correlation with votes for the far-right. 2nd chart: Age cross-referenced with gender does also reveal a clear pattern. Middle-aged men had the highest FPÖ vote share.
112
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 29/09/2024
Election Day is here in Austria. The polling trends suggest a close race with far-right FPÖ and conservative ÖVP are statistically tied. The latter has gained momentum in the final polls. First election results projections are scheduled for 5 pm. Chart below from corneliushirsch.com. #nrw24
000
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 28/09/2024
Thank you for clarifying your question. The conservative ÖVP is Part and the social democratic SPÖ would form a coalition of the center. The FPÖ is a far-right party with pro-Russian and authoritarian stance. Here’s an overview table from Wikipedia with acronyms and logos.
100
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 27/09/2024
Austria Election: Late shifts in polls right before an election can signal a continues late-decider trend. If the recent polling trends in Austria continue into the final days leading up to the election, the ÖVP could potentially overtake the FPÖ and emerge as the largest party. More on the blog. 1/
263
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 20/09/2024
This is going to be such a mess if no winner is announced on November 5. I know one guy who will just declare himself the winner.
000
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 19/09/2024
All eyes on Pennsylvania. And a new poll which is line with the trend of other post-TV debate polls shows Kamala Harris gaining. But don’t be fooled the race for the White House remains a toss up.
120
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 18/09/2024
Bluesky now has over 10 million users, and I was #1,318,627!
010
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 23/08/2024
Republicans and Donald Trump still holding a slight edge in several Electoral College projections by different organizations and the battleground states polling trends show a statistical tied between Harris and Trump. 3/3
000
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 23/08/2024
Here's a summary of the current data: Despite Kamala Harris holding a narrow lead in the national popular vote and polling trends in key battleground states being highly competitive, the electoral map shows a challenging path to the required 270 electoral votes. 2/3
100
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 23/08/2024
Happy Friday: I've updated all charts on my dedicated hashtag #US2024 presidential election page ( 👉 corneliushirsch.com/2024-us-pres... 👈 ) with the latest polling trends and Electoral College forecasts by different organizations. 1/3
100
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 28/07/2024
Recent polls show Trump with a small lead over Harris, but the race is much closer now than it was when Biden was still in the race. Check back soon for updates! hashtag#USPresidentialElection hashtag#Election2024 hashtag#PoliticalAnalysis hashtag#ElectoralCollege hashtag#ElectionForecasts
010
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 09/04/2024
3️⃣With the EPP expected to maintain its position as the largest group in the European Parliament, alongside S&D and Renew Europe, the upcoming election promises to reaffirm the traditional grand coalition plus. Together, these three parties will hold on to their majority of seats in the parliament.
100
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 09/04/2024
2️⃣ ID Surges: Last week, I wrote a piece about the rising sea levels of support for far-right parties in Europe. The seat projection page provides a detailed breakdown of the seat gains for the Identity and Democracy (ID) group, which is projected to experience a notable surge in MEPs.
100
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 09/04/2024
Key insights from today's analysis: 1️⃣ Gains & Losses: The data-driven approach reveals significant shifts in seat projections across various European Parliament groups. The right is poised for gains, while groups like Renew Europe and the Greens are likely to face losses in MEPs and influence.
110
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 09/04/2024
🌟2 Months to the 2024 European Parliament Election! As the countdown begins, my blog on corneliushirsch.com has a new project page dedicated to providing you with my new European Parliament seat projection mode based on voting intention polls: corneliushirsch.com/ep2024-seat-... 🗳️ Key takeaways 1/
141
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 07/04/2024
New blog post: What Data Tells Us About the Far-Right Surge in Europe. corneliushirsch.com/data-analysi...
111
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 29/03/2024
Hey Euronews and Ipsos, last time I checked France gets to fill 81 seats in the next European Parliament. How come your poll predicts 82 MEPs for France in your online poll center?
000
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 09/03/2024
Exactly 3 months to go until the 2024 European Parliament election. Reason enough to launch my new side project, a new seat projection model for the #EP2024 which I feature in the inaugurating post of my new blog on corneliushirsch.com. More details in the comments.
179
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 10/12/2023
✨Our exclusive analysis, with polling trends from all 27 EU countries, assigns seats of new unaffiliated parties, resulting in a comprehensive seat estimate. The full breakdown of our scenario analysis: - EPP: 175 seats - S&D: 145 - ECR: 91 - ID: 91 - RE: 87 - Greens: 47 - Left: 33 - NI: 51 4/
173
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 10/12/2023
📊 New polling analysis by the POLITICO Research & Analysis Division for the 2024 European Parliament election shows significant shifts in the EU's political landscape. We published our new EP election report with 6 months to go until the European Parliament election. 🚀Here are my main takeaways:
195
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 03/12/2023
Our new 2024 European Parliament election report is coming out next week. Lots to unpack after the most recent elections and the new polling trends of @pollofpolls.bsky.social.
040
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 28/11/2023
The Single Market has hit the big 3-0 – and to mark the occasion, we’ve done a deep dive on how far it’s come and needs to happen next in our new report by the POLITICO Research & Analysis Division. Download the new flagship report today for free on our website: www.politico.eu/research-ana...
121
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 09/11/2023
… this month the center-to-far-right alliance including EPP, RE and ECR is within striking distance of the majority threshold in the seat projection for the June 2024 election. 📧 POLITICO Pro Analysis subscribers find the full report in their inbox and on the Pro platform since this morning. 6/6
001
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 09/11/2023
Today, with 7 months to go until the 2024 European Parliament election, the POLITICO Research & Analysis Division published the new monthly seat projection report for the June election. Here are my main takeaways: 🧵
1108
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 03/11/2023
In October in our European Parliament election report we had a closer look at the new seat distribution for the 2024 European Parliament election. Which countries will have more seats to fill in the hemicycle and as of today which party groups would benefit from these additional seats? Results:
111
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 20/10/2023
Something happening here in our European Parliament seat tracker which combines national voting intention polls from all 27 EU countries and translates them into seats in the European Parliament. Significant upwards trend for center-right EPP and far-right ID. Driven a.o. by trends in Germany.
253
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 19/10/2023
Who's ahead in the polls in the Netherlands? Our current POLITICO Poll of Polls shows the far-right PVV is having a comeback in recent weeks, while the BBB farmers party's high-season is over. NSC: 18% VVD: 18% (-4) PvdA–GL: 16% PVV: 13% (+2) BBB: 8% (+7) D66: 5% (-10) +/- vs. 2021 results
010
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 18/10/2023
Stabil auf der Seite von Israel UND Ukraine.
010
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 17/10/2023
There IS a way to see posts on this platform that were liked by people you follow but not reposted. Find the "Liked by Follows" in the # Feeds and add it to your tabs.
021
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 16/10/2023
Who's ahead in the polls in Germany? Our current poll of polls shows the far-right AfD continues to gain support in voting intention polls. CDU/CSU: 28% (+4) AfD: 22% (+12) SPD: 17% (-9) Greens: 14% (-1) FDP: 6% (-6) Left: 5% (=) +/- vs. 2021 results via pollofpolls.eu
111
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 16/10/2023
Almost 2/3 districts counted in the Polish parliamentary election. Find the results on pollofpolls.eu along @politico.eu's analysis and election coverage.
021
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 16/10/2023
Poland election results update: There's an updated Ipsos "late" poll available which combines exit poll data and first counted results. The opposition is in all scenarios on track to win a majority of the seats in the Polish parliament election.
26524
Cornelius Hirsch @vollcornhirsch.online · 16/10/2023
With now more than 50% of districts counted in Poland, the exit polls from last night and today seem to hold true. Governing PiS party below 40% and its only potential coalition partner Confederation below 8% means they have no path to a majority. Opposition on track to win majority of seats.
171