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Victoria Bedell @victoriabedell.bsky.social · 20h

Senate races in Arkansas and Florida have had their forecasted ratings change from Tilt R to Lean R, while Iowa is starting to move away from the Democrats in the average despite staying Tilt D. Polls remain favorable to Senate Democrats overall, forecasted at 54 D+I to 46 R. congresscompass.com

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Victoria Bedell @victoriabedell.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

A setback for independent Senate candidates in polling today, as Nebraska flipped from Tilt I to Tilt R and Idaho flipped from Tilt I to Likely R in our forecast (admittedly on the basis of a Republican internal). Nonetheless, the overall Senate prediction stands at D 54 to R 46. congresscompass.com

congresscompass.com

Congress Compass

Using the latest polls to create a forecast

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Victoria Bedell @victoriabedell.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

In a surprising poll, Republican pollster Trafalgar Group has Senator Darline Graham (R-S.C.), sister of the late Senator Lindsey Graham, ahead by just 1.1 percent over Democratic candidate Annie Andrews. Graham leads our average by a little over 2 points currently with many respondents undecided.

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Victoria Bedell @victoriabedell.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

My latest article is a deep dive into the polls powering the Congress Compass forecast for the states that Democrats and Independents appear poised to pick up, as well as Michigan, where they're competitive. Overall, a #bluewave seems to be on the horizon: www.dailykos.com/stories/2026...

dailykos.com

Senate Polls: 56 D+I, 44 R; 9 GOP Losses

The latest polls suggest a blue wave will sweep into the Senate this November, according to the weighted polling averages from the Congress Compass forecast. Overall, 56 Democrats and Independents are...

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Victoria Bedell @victoriabedell.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

In the latest from congresscompass.com, a new poll has flipped our rating in Nebraska from Tilt R to Tilt I. The forecast now suggests the next Congress will have 56 Democrats and Independents to 44 Republicans, a net loss of 9 seats in the #2026midterms.

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Victoria Bedell @victoriabedell.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

New polls added to the congresscompass.com model show promising numbers for Democrats. Overall forecast in the Senate is 55 D+I to 45 R, with a new poll showing Adam Hamilton (D) up 2 points in Kansas after a previous poll from Emerson showed the same result. House is 231 D to 199 R with 5 tossups.

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Victoria Bedell @victoriabedell.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Two high-quality, non-partisan polls show good results for Senate Democratic candidates: Suffolk has El-Sayed+7 in Michigan, while Marist has Turek+8 in Iowa. With the latter poll, the Congress Compass Senate forecast now stands at 54 Democrats and Independents to 46 Republicans. congresscompass.com

congresscompass.com

Congress Compass

Using the latest polls to create a forecast

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Victoria Bedell @victoriabedell.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

The Congress Compass forecast for the House stands at 228 D, 7 Tossup, and 200 R. Rating changes for the lower chamber all moved in the Democratic Party's direction: • MT-01: Tilt R -> Tilt D • NE-01: Lean R -> Tilt D • SC-01: Likely R -> Tilt R View the full forecast here: congresscompass.com

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Victoria Bedell @victoriabedell.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

The latest @surveyusa.bsky.social poll for the U.S. Senate election in Nebraska shows independent Dan Osborn leading by 4 points. This is an important poll; it's the first one conducted for the race that isn't an Osborn internal, and it has him leading by more than all but one of his own polls.

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Victoria Bedell @victoriabedell.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

For the record, I will never knowingly use AI to write my stories or gather data on Congress Compass. Nor will I ever place bets on the outcomes of elections that I am forecasting. I believe both run contrary to journalistic standards of ethics on plagiarism and conflict of interest respectively.

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Victoria Bedell @victoriabedell.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Congress Compass has a new microblogging home in Bluesky! I founded congresscompass.com in 2018 to aggregate the polls without adjusting the toplines like a simple average while still boasting the features of a sophisticated model e.g. weighing polls by age, quality, and the number of respondents.

congresscompass.com

Congress Compass

Using the latest polls to create a forecast

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