iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

The age distribution of people dying from drug-related causes continues to shift towards older age groups. More than half of drug misuse deaths are now in the over 45s.

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

The most striking story in the data is the dramatic rise in deaths involving the synthetic opioid nitazene. Over a fifth of drug misuse deaths involved nitazenes. There were none recorded as recently as 2022 (although they weren't routinely tested for back then).

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

New data on drug-related deaths in Scotland in 2025 published today by @natrecordsscot.bsky.social show that drug misuse deaths rose, although they remain some way below the levels we saw early in the pandemic.

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Relative to overall inflation, some of the food and drink categories that saw big price increases in 2022/23 (hello butter) have started to come back down slightly. Alcohol, meanwhile, remains cheaper in real terms now than in January 2021 and prices have effectively fallen throughout 2026.

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Finally, what does this mean for government revenue from alcohol duties? Well, predictably, things are not good from a Treasury perspective. In cash terms (i.e. ignoring inflation) revenue from alcohol duty has plateaued since 2020. Adjusting for inflation, it's fallen by almost 25% since Aug 21.

A line chart showing total government revenue from alcohol duties with and without adjustment for inflation. The unadjusted line rises steadily, with a small plateau during the duty escalator 2008-2013, but has stabilised at just over £1bn/month since late 2020.

The inflation adjusted line shows a more gradual rise over the same period, then a very sharp fall during the cost-of-living crisis.

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

HMRC actually report the data separately by drink type, so we can follow the trends for beer, cider, wine and spirits. Lots of interesting things going on here: - the collapse of beer sales from the mid 2000s as drinking shifted away from pubs

A line chart, much like the previous one, but with separate lines for beer, cider, wines and spirits. Wines and spirits are following similar trajectories to the overall line (up, down, up a bit, down a lot). Beer clearances were much higher than wine and spirits in 1999, but fell a lot in the 2000s and have been only just above wine since then. Cider clearances are much lower, with a peak in 2010 then a gradual decline that has started to reverse since the start of the cost-of-living crisis.

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

With the recent publication of new alcohol duty data from HMRC, I wanted to look at how the volume of alcohol cleared for sale has changed in recent years. A brief spike post-lockdown, then a sustained drop from late 2021 onwards - exactly timed with the start of the cost-of-living crisis.

A line chart showing the 12-month centered rolling average volume of pure alcohol cleared for sale by HMRC from late-1999 to mid-2026. The chart shows a rise to the mid 2000s, then a gradual fall, coinciding with the Labour government's alcohol duty escalator. Once the escalator was removed in 2013 levels rose only very gradually with little change during the COVID lockdowns, then a brief spike in the summer of 2021 and a relatively sharp fall from ~0.68 litres per person per month to ~0.58 in 2026.

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

..but other years of data just don't look as nice/interesting. I think it's because in other years the sunniest and rainiest places are more clearly distinct, whereas in 2021 there were more places that were both.

Another version of the same map, but with data for 2022 and that just looks less interesting. With much less black and much larger, unbroken, swathes of yellow in much of central and eastern England.

Basically just the same thing again, but with 2023 data

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

A few years ago I made this graphic of sunshine hours and rainfall across the UK. It's one of the the things I've made that has broken containment to the greatest degree and so occasionally turns up in strange places. Anyway, sometimes people ask me about updating it, so I have...

A 'bivariate' map of the UK with places that were sunniest in 2021 coloured in yellow, places that were rainiest in blue, places that were both sunny and rainy in black and places that were neither in grey. It shows generally the patterns you would expect (blue in Scotland and Wales, yellow in the south and east of England), but with interesting stories, like the sunniness and dryness of Scotland's east coast, or the sunniness and raininess of south Cumbria, north west Wales and much of Cornwall.

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Along the way, I did also make this version, which just shows the deprivation profiles of every upper tier local authority in England.

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Here's the original graphic. Lots of interesting changes, including the rise of Reform (across areas with no clear deprivation pattern), the collapse of the Conservatives and a big rise in councils with no overall control.

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

I have a cool graphic pinned up next to my desk from @opendatamcr.bsky.social showing all the local authorities in England in 2019 ordered by deprivation and coloured by political control. I was staring at it yesterday and wondered what it might look like now. So obviously I had to make it...

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

How do alcohol duty rates vary across OECD countries? Here's the excise duty (excluding VAT) for every OECD country I could find data for. Highest rates in the Nordic countries, Australia and the UK. Only Japan and (I believe) Korea don't have higher taxes per unit alcohol for spirits.

A bar chart showing the excise duty rate per unit of alcohol for beer, wine and spirits in most OECD countries. Many countries don't tax wine at all. Those that do, generally have higher tax rates per unit for wine than beer, and all countries except for Japan and Korea have higher rates for spirits than any other alcohol.

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

Thanks! That's a really interesting piece. Something I couldn't fit into our article is that although the *number* of pubs has been falling steadily, the number of people employed in pubs has actually risen. This is because we've seen plenty of consolidation - fewer, larger, more food-centered pubs

A simple line chart showing the number of people employed in pubs in the UK between 2009 and 2022. This sat around 400,000 from 2009-2013, but has been rising slowly since then. In 2022 there were 39,000 more people working in pubs than in 2009, a 9% rise.

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 02/07/2026

This is cool and made me wonder want to draw this for England, so I did. Except we only have data by area-level deprivation, not education. And the cause of death groupings are slightly different, so I had to add a bigger 'other' category. Basically the same finding though.

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

ICYMI, here's the most striking finding from our new paper on reformulation in the British off-trade alcohol market: This graph shows the proportion of beer sales which are below 3.5% ABV. The dashed line shows the date that duty rates for 2.8-3.4% beer was cut. 1/4 of beer sold in 2025 was <3.5%!

A line chart with 3 separate lines showing the proportion of beer sales coming from products below 3.5% ABV (excluding no/low alcohol products) measured in terms of: 1) the volume of beer, 2) the volume of alcohol and 3) the amount of money spent. All three measures are very low (less than 3% of the market) and falling between 2018 and mid-2023 when taxes were cut on 2.8-3.4% beer. Immediately after this change the volume of lower-strength beer jumps to 10-15% and then continues to rise, eaching 15-20% for alcohol volume and sales value and almost 25% for product volume.

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

...then the UK's experience seems to show that it can work. One other interesting finding from this study - the average ABV of alcohol sold in shops in Britain has been falling since the reforms, seemingly driven by falls in the average strength of beer and wine.

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

You might be wondering if this growth was partly driven by new product launches, or increased sales of products that were already below 3.5%, but no, it was almost entirely reformulation - products that were 3.5%+ cutting their strength.

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

If you're still not sure, we also looked at the proportion of the beer market coming from products below 3.5%. The reforms cut duty for beers between 2.8-3.4%, and we find dramatic growth in this part of the market. In 2022, less than 3% of beer sold was <3.5%. In 2025 it was 23%.

A line chart plotting the proportion of the beer market coming from sales of products below 3.5%. This sits consistently below 5%, slightly falling over time, until the exact point the duty reforms were introduced, at which stage the line shoots upwards.

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

Here's our main figure - every dot is a reformulation, sized by market share. Dots above the x-axis are ABV cuts and the vertical dashed line is the date of the duty reforms. It's clear that beer, cider and RTDs (alcopops and pre-mix cocktails) have seen an increase in reformulations post-reform.

A set of 5 bubble charts, one each for beer, cider, RTDs, spirits and wine, in which each bubble is a reformulation. Horizontal position denotes time, vertical position the ABV change of each reformulation, and size is the market share of the reformulated product. There are reformulations throughout the period from 2018-2025, for all types of alcohol, but for beer, cider and RTDs in particular, there is a noticeable increase in the number of ABV-reducing reformulations after the date of the duty reforms.

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

This study is part of our evaluation of the reforms to UK alcohol taxes that happened in August 2023. sarg-sheffield.ac.uk/projects/ref... These reforms substantially changed the financial incentive structures for producers of some kinds of alcohol to cut the strength of their products.

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

New paper klaxon: Our analysis of reformulation (when alcohol producers change the strength of their products) in the British alcohol market 2018-2025 has just been published in @apsad-dar.bsky.social. I think some of our findings are pretty striking... doi.org/10.1111/dar....

An image of the head of the journal article: How have alcohol producers changed the alcohol content of their products? A descriptive analysis of reformulation in the off-trade alcohol market in Great Britain, 2018-2025

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 24/06/2026

But the reforms introduced only a tiny reduction in duty for stronger RTDs (8.5-22%), and subsequent inflation-linked increases have taken the cash-terms duty rates back above the pre-reform level. So, unlike lower-strength alcopops, the rise of Buzzballz isn't being driven by the duty reforms.

A line chart showing how duty rates vary with ABV, and how this has changed since the duty reforms. Prior to the reforms, we had a flat duty rate at any strength. Since the reforms we have a stepped rate that rises with ABV. For products below 3.5% the post-reform rates are *much* lower (around 10p per unit instead of almost 30p). For products 3.5-8.5% they are slightly lower (around 26 p), but for products in the 8.5-22% range they are almost the same.

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

A white-tailed eagle being accosted by a montagu's harrier A skulky common rosefinch A mystery warbler (any suggestions welcome) The amazing nest that penduline tits build

A big white-tailed eagle gliding along while a smaller harrier dives towards it, talons out

A rosefinch - a little brown and white bird with a cool pink head - hiding in a tree

A generic warbler - a small brown and white bird - perched on a cable in front of a hawthorn bush

A penduline tit nest - an incredible structure hanging down from a branch - slightly smaller than a rugby ball made of plant matter with a little hole for access

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Also in Lithuania - many cool birds 🦉 Yellow wagtail (with a blue head - ours have yellow heads) White Stork preening on a roof Aquatic warbler singing his little heart out Cranes with a little baby crane

A yellow wagtail sitting in a tree, looking very yellow (although with a slatey blue head, the ones we predominantly get in the UK have yellow heads)

A massive white stork sitting on top of a roof preening itself

An aquatic warbler, a little brown and white bird, perched on top of a reed doing some good warbling

Cranes! A pair of big grey dudes with a cute fluffy baby

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

And a whole museum full of devils, which was amazing.

A statue with the head of a man rising from the flames of hell. He is being stabbed in the head by a 2-pronged trident (a bident?) and is generally not happy about any of this

A weird bat-devil playing the accordion. Obviously.

A devil seemingly romancing a missile? No idea what is going on here.

A family of small, quite charming, porcelain devils lying around in a very relaxed manner, as if they are having a picnic. A slightly sinister, slightly sexy picnic.

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

There were sculptures everywhere in the city, which was very cool

A big soviet-style concrete monument to some pioneering Lithuanian airmen

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

I spent last week in Kaunas in Lithuania at an alcohol policy conference. It was my first visit to Lithuania, and it was marvellous. A beautiful city, great food and an abundant supply of delicious cakes.

A big old church. Very Eastern European looking with lots of domes

The roof terrace of a very austere, but quite cool modernist church, with a big square spire

A nice old building on the town square with turrets. Could be from anywhere in Central Europe, pretty much

The fancy interior of a Catholic Church, with a beautifully decorated ceiling, fancy columns, etc etc

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

It's almost World Cup time (for better or worse), so I've got an excuse to update this silly application of a lexis surface to the England men's football squads for every major tournament ever. R code here: github.com/VictimOfMath...

A chart with time on the x-axis and player age on the y-axis. It shows the players included in every World Cup and Euros squad as dots, positioned vertically by their age. Players included in multiple squads are joined by diagonal lines, which are darker for players appearing in the most squads.

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 22/05/2026

I've been a bit quieter on here lately - busy beavering away on all sorts of interesting projects that I can't share just yet, but here's some visual snippets of a few of the fun things I've been up to that I'll hopefully get to post about soon.

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 17/05/2026

My daughter also took this, which is amazing. Gannets are ace.

A picture of the sea with a gannet's weird art-deco head sticking up into the centre of the shot.

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 17/05/2026

Went to the seaside and saw some birbs today 🦉 Flappy gannet, grumpy razorbill, curious puffin, guillemot shaking it's booty. Photo credit on those last two to my daughter.

A gannet - a big white bird with a yellow head and black wingtips - perched at the top of a cliff flapping its massive wings threatening to take off

A razorbill - a cute little black and white seabird - chilling in the sun at the top of a cliff

A puffin looking adorable, tilting its head quizzically at the camera

A guillemot - another cute black and white seabird - shaking itself down post-preen

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 01/05/2026

We also asked participants about their views on what policies they felt might be helpful for people with alcohol dependence. Responses included restrictions on advertising, restrictions on availability, particularly home delivery, reducing the visibility of alcohol in shops and better education.

A quote from one of our participants saying "I mean at Christmas… it was everywhere… they had all these Christmas offers. You’re like, oh
I’m trying to forget about drink… don’t push it through my throat."

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 01/05/2026

Others reflected on how higher prices might have prevented them from becoming dependent on alcohol in the first place.

A quote from one of our interviewees saying "I think if you’re in the right place with the fact that you can manage how much your intake is
and how much your alcohol is, then [price] plays a massive factor and a lot of people including myself would say “Nah, something has got to give. I’d prefer to have a roof over my head than a drink in my hand.” So yeah, get them early, if you’d have got me early and I’d have thought that process out, then it might have been a different story for me right now. I might not be here"

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 01/05/2026

We've just published a new briefing note, based on interviews with people with alcohol dependence or in recovery and who are experiencing financial hardship about their views on alcohol pricing policies. We found some interesting things... sarg-sheffield.ac.uk/sarg-briefin...

An image of the cover of our new briefing note, titled "What do people with experience of alcohol dependence think about alcohol pricing policy" in a very nice teal, orange and white colour combo.

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 27/04/2026

When we're interested in exploring people's preferences for how health gains from new treatments are distributed across the population (e.g. do we prefer more people getting less, or fewer people benefitting more), how do we elicit these? We've got a new paper about that: doi.org/10.1016/j.jv...

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 15/04/2026

Found a few lovely birds on the moors at lunchtime yesterday 🦉

A red grouse standing on a rock, silhouetted against the Derbyshire moors

A male ring ouzel (like a blackbird, but with a smart white band across its chest) standing amongst some broken bracken

A pied flycatcher, a small black and white bird, yelling heartily from the top of a tree, trying to attract a mate

A smart wheatear, although that appears to be missing some of its tail, perched on a post, giving me some side-eye

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

You can also see the impact of the reforms to alcohol duty in August 2023 (the vertical dotted line). Sparkling wine taxes were cut, with prices falling accordingly. Taxes for most other wine rise (depending on strength), and prices also spiked, although only temporarily.

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

Revisiting some of my favourite pricing data that the ONS quietly publish each month - here's how the price of a bottle of wine has changed over the last 16 years after adjusting for inflation 📊 Big falls for sparkling and rose wine in particular.

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 05/03/2026

As an aside, getting worried about the apparent increase in drug use is also not entirely sensible. If you ask people about whether they have ever done something, then asking older people will always get you more yeses, simply by virtue of the fact that older people have had more time to do stuff.

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

Today's episode of adventures in UI excellence. Who on Earth designed this and what is wrong with them?

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

Finally, I wrote a commentary for @thelancetph.bsky.social in response to an excellent new modelling paper looking at the potential impact of Minimum Unit Pricing and health warning labels on alcohol-related cancer harms. Original paper: doi.org/10.1016/S246... Commentary: doi.org/10.1016/S246...

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

The second paper is led by @drsarahejackson.bsky.social as part of our project evaluating tax reforms and the cost-of-living crisis sarg-sheffield.ac.uk/projects/ref... We looked at associations between cost as a motivator to reduce drinking and financial hardship. doi.org/10.1016/j.dr...

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

The first paper is led by Carol Emslie and comes from our ELEPHANT project evaluating extensions to late-night alcohol licensing hours in Aberdeen and Glasgow. This paper reports on venue observations during these extra opening hours doi.org/10.1016/j.dr...

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 12/02/2026

Interestingly, Scotland still has higher rates of alcohol-specific deaths among men, but Northern Ireland has the highest rates among women. R code for these plots is here: github.com/VictimOfMath...

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 12/02/2026

NISRA have just released new data on alcohol-specific deaths in Northern Ireland in 2024. This confirms the sad fact that Northern Ireland now has the highest rates of alcohol-specific deaths of any UK nation.

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 09/01/2026

By coincidence, I updated this graph this afternoon. Interesting quite how in sync the rises and falls in Scotland and the US (and to a much lesser extent NI) are, in spite of very different causes.

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 09/01/2026

Features this really interesting breakdown (IMO) of how reductions in alcohol-related deaths are made up of different causes. Biggest impacts are for alcohol-related liver disease and dependence-related conditions, but with substantial reductions in chronic disease, especially cancer, longer-term

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Colin Angus @victimofmaths.bsky.social · 07/01/2026

You might argue that this is because the problem is going away, but that's not what the data shows. The number of drink drive fatalities, or people killed or seriously injured in drink drive crashes isn't falling. If anything, it's rising (www.gov.uk/government/s...)

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