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vaughn

@vaughn.bsky.social
320 followers 185 following 538 posts

idk tbd \\ marseille \\ pizza \\ grouchy www.vaughntan.org

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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
I wrote a strategic map of four types of AI business. One example of type 3: a developer built a bespoke court submission tool in a single afternoon, using no AI at runtime. Hours of manual work done in minutes. This is what AI has done to the economics of custom software. vaughntan.org/ai4ways
vaughntan.org
4 ways to build an AI business - Vaughn Tan
tl;dr: Most people use “AI business” to mean one of two things — building the AI itself, or building products that call AI at runtime. There are
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
This week's newsletter: My project on building a practical understanding of not-knowing now has a coherent home. One annotated contents page organised by what the essays do, from motivations through theory to practical tools for four distinct types. uncertaintymindset.substack.com/p/gbw92026
uncertaintymindset.substack.com
River crossing (wk 9/2026)
Here and there; navigation, many games; slop, possums, agency, immaturity.
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
Reviewed my writing from the past year vs 5-10 years ago. Recent stuff is worse despite decades clarifying the concepts. Problem: machine-generated prose appears so finished I've become insensitive to when the substance misses the point I'm trying to make. uncertaintymindset.substack.com/p/gbw32026
uncertaintymindset.substack.com
Writing with machines (wk 3/2026)
Tacit knowledge, motivation, and negotiation; writing with machines; Smart Bricks, being kinded, and specs.
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 11/01/2026
There are two types of discomfort: 1) Execution discomfort has immediate payoff. 2) Innovation discomfort has delayed and uncertain payoff. People resist the second type. The way to get over this: make innovation discomfort unavoidable through productive desperation. vaughntan.org/desperationd...
vaughntan.org
Desperation by design - Vaughn Tan
tl;dr: Innovation requires uncomfortable unfamiliar work, but people instinctively resist discomfort. Incentives and motivation programmes don’t
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 11/01/2026
Most organisations respond to tacit knowledge problems by trying to write better documentation, style guides, brand books, training programmes. None of this works. You can't learn tacit knowledge by reading descriptions of it. Instead, try the 3 mechanisms here: vaughntan.org/learnwhatmat...
vaughntan.org
Learning what matters - Vaughn Tan
tl;dr: The most important knowledge in any organisation—what makes your work distinctively yours—can’t be written down or taught through training
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
Businesses need cheap small-scale automation which is already feasible. But mindsets and procurement systems built for around expensive-to-build software can't figure out how to buy these Boring Tiny Tools. Imagination failure, not technical barrier. vaughntan.org/bttparadigm
vaughntan.org
A Boring Tiny Tooling paradigm - Vaughn Tan
tl;dr: Small-medium businesses are missing a huge opportunity because of three imagination failures: they believe digital transformation must be big
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
Spoke today with an editor at a press. We talked about how the gravitational pull of high-certainty books and books which are illusory in their high certainty of success. The big effort investment for getting books to mkt is what makes publishers grasp for certainty that the investment is worth it.
uncertaintymindset.substack.com
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
This week's newsletter focuses on building judgment from the ground up. Organisations reserve subjective decisionmaking for senior people, but critical thinking develops through practice—you can't wait until someone is senior to start teaching them. uncertaintymindset.substack.com/p/gbw012026
uncertaintymindset.substack.com
Multiples (wk 1/2026)
Judgment from the ground up; labour-intensive and industrial foods, prompting as teaching; maintenance and replacement; Boring Tiny Tools in India, Chinese peptides, shoveling snow.
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
This week my newsletter is about deliberately pushing into the discomfort of learning to build software with AI coding tools. Tiny projects with low stakes. Each small success building capacity for slightly more uncomfortable next steps. uncertaintymindset.substack.com/p/gbw522025
uncertaintymindset.substack.com
Boring and uncomfortable (wk 52/2025)
Why Boring Tiny Tools are good; what to do when there's nothing to do; being uncomfortable; billionaire babies, moneymaking, choosing deviance.
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
Digital transformation fails when you buy software built for millions to serve dozens. The economics have inverted. You can now build tiny, highly specific tools that fit seamlessly into existing workflows—if you know how to think about product development differently. vaughntan.org/boringtinyto...
vaughntan.org
Boring Tiny Tools - Vaughn Tan
tl;dr: This essay is about Boring Tiny Tools—why they’re the way forward for digital transformation. Generative AI coding tools now enable
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 21/12/2025
The comfort trap: modern life is comfortable → you become unable to handle discomfort → you avoid it more → you become more fragile. idk breaks this vicious cycle: it's a structured, intentional, repeatable practice for productive discomfort. EU shipping now available: productivediscomfort.org
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 15/12/2025
i wrote a reading list for learning how to do nothing vaughntan.org/doingnothing
vaughntan.org
Doing nothing: a reading list - Vaughn Tan
For 3 years during Covid, I lived in crumbling houses in depopulated hamlets on two different mountains in the Haute-Loire, one of the departements
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 29/11/2025
this week my newsletter is about redesigning workshops for online-ness; finding books in space (with situated memory); headlessness, 3D-printed boats, AI energy usage, climate models, mendacity. uncertaintymindset.substack.com/p/gbw482025
uncertaintymindset.substack.com
Going online (wk 48/2025)
Online workshops; finding books in space with situated memory; headlessness, 3D-printed boats, AI energy usage, climate models, mendacity.
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 28/11/2025
Online workshops rarely work; we do them because in-person is too expensive. Wrong framing. Right framing: redesign online workshops from the ground up to be more effective _because_ they're online. vaughntan.org/onlineworksh...
vaughntan.org
Making online workshops great … from the ground up - Vaughn Tan
tl;dr: Online workshops rarely work well, and we keep on doing them because they would be too expensive/infeasible to do in-person. This is the
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
I'm back from a brief hiatus with a new newsletter issue about: Public value and public strategy; what I've been up to; electric anxiety; Rupertness in polyhedra, rewritable pads, tape clips, zip ties; trees, cats, dogs. uncertaintymindset.substack.com
uncertaintymindset.substack.com
The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd) | Vaughn Tan | Substack
On not-knowing—what it is, how it affects us, and how to relate to it—and other stuff. Click to read The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd), by Vaughn Tan, a Substack publication with thousands ...
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 15/11/2025
just updated my now page for the first time since july. it was a lot of stuff. have a look: vaughntan.org/now-ish
vaughntan.org
now-ish - Vaughn Tan
The last time I wrote here, it was 20 July, 2025. The late summer and fall months between then and now were unusually densely packed. July I was in
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
I spoke today at the Institute of Public Administration on why borrowing private sector strategic thinking and values undermines public strategy — and a practical tool that uses tradeoffs to develop more robust public strategy. Read about the talk here: vaughntan.org/publicvalue
vaughntan.org
Public value and public strategy - Vaughn Tan
tl;dr: Why borrowing private sector strategic thinking and values undermines public strategy — and a practical tool for using tradeoffs to develop
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
My newsletter this week is about infrastructure for human subjective reasoning; walking in a forest; dynamic moulds, San Francisco malls, Kryptos, television; seven-coloured water. uncertaintymindset.substack.com/p/gbw432025
uncertaintymindset.substack.com
Reasoning scaffolds (wk 43/2025)
Infrastructure for human subjective reasoning; walking in a forest; dynamic moulds, San Francisco malls, Kryptos, television; coloured water.
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
i wrote about what reasoning scaffolds are, why they are interesting and important, and how to develop a practical research program about them. vaughntan.org/reasoningsca...
vaughntan.org
Reasoning scaffolds: An infrastructure for human subjective reasoning - Vaughn Tan
tl;dr: Every important decision requires subjective reasoning about objective facts—deciding what matters and why. Yet we have almost no explicit
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
among other things, i've been prototyping a reasoning scaffold for a couple months. a reasoning scaffold helps its user think more clearly when doing subjective reasoning. vaughntan.org/protoscaffold
vaughntan.org
Prototyping a reasoning scaffold - Vaughn Tan
tl;dr: I’ve been prototyping an AI tool that uses Socratic mirroring to build a reasoning scaffold that helps users develop stronger arguments.
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
This week I'm in Japan working on too little sleep. I wrote about: Prototypes and the value of theory; Socratic mirrors, reasoning scaffolds, and AI tools; in-country patterns; closures, modern instrumentals, natural ice, pretexts. uncertaintymindset.substack.com
uncertaintymindset.substack.com
The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd) | Vaughn Tan | Substack
On not-knowing—what it is, how it affects us, and how to relate to it—and other stuff. Click to read The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd), by Vaughn Tan, a Substack publication with thousands ...
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
I’ve been prototyping a critical thinking tool + testing it over the last few months at universities, corporations, startups, and government. The method generalises: Users doing real work with real stakes find it useful enough to want their institutions to provide it. vaughntan.org/protoscaffold
vaughntan.org
The meaningmaking lens on AI (updated) - Vaughn Tan
Meaningmaking is a simple concept but one that is counterintuitively powerful, concrete, and applicable to understanding how we think about work and
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
this week, my newsletter is about: An AI tool for learning critical thinking while using AI tools; Tunisia and structured elicitation; various perspectives on how to use AI; developments in zippertech. uncertaintymindset.substack.com/p/gbw392025
uncertaintymindset.substack.com
An AI critical thinking tool (wk 39/2025)
An AI tool for learning critical thinking while using AI tools; Tunisia and structured elicitation; various perspectives on how to use AI; developments in zippertech.
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 21/09/2025
Seeking testers for a new tool to help students write better argumentative essays through guided reasoning scaffolds. Looking for educator contacts with students willing to test the web app (<1hr, no instructor involvement needed). More info & signup: vaughntan.org/thinkingtools
vaughntan.org
An AI tool for learning critical thinking - Vaughn Tan
tl;dr: Students now have access to LLMs that can write essays, but seem to be losing the capacity to think critically. I solve this problem by
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
I'll be doing some "taster" and introduction sessions in the next few months. If you're interested in learning more or getting notified when these sessions are scheduled, please let me know using this form: forms.gle/41k1viacAFot... (🙏 @tomski1878.bsky.social for amplifying!)
forms.gle
Public sector strategy course
This form is for collecting expressions of interest in a new public sector strategy course developed by Vaughn Tan. Click on this link to learn more about the design intent and pedagogical innovations...
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
i've made a working (but verrrrry hacky) prototype of an AI-powered tool for helping users think critically while using the tool to write reasoned arguments (so #meta, i know). here's a screenshot of it, dripping primordial ooze. project details here: vaughntan.org/aiux
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
This week I wrote about: A breakthrough in cases; taking the public sector seriously; the practical value of thinking about meaningmaking; dissolving vs. solving, quant knowability breaks down, materiality. uncertaintymindset.substack.com/p/gbw372025
uncertaintymindset.substack.com
Open pollination (wk 37/2025)
A breakthrough in cases; taking the public sector seriously; the practical value of thinking about meaningmaking; dissolving vs. solving, quant knowability breaks down, materiality.
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 28/08/2025
A game for experiencing not-knowings; things that are invisible for a long time; marsupials. uncertaintymindset.substack.com/p/gbw352025
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 26/08/2025
Built an interactive construction game called FOUNDATION at MOD. in Adelaide: players don't know what materials/rules/structures they'll run into. It's a test of generating not-knowing on demand, to build training tools for orgs facing true uncertainty. Until Sat 8/30: vaughntan.org/foundation
vaughntan.org
FOUNDATION: A game of not-knowings - Vaughn Tan
What if you could experience what it’s like to make decisions when you truly don’t know what’s possible? That’s what FOUNDATION, a new interactive
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
In this issue: An award nomination, AI tools that support critical thinking; not-knowings, on demand; organisational interventions for uncertainty; subliminal learning, K4, satisfying toys, cat trains, bromism, and convincing others. uncertaintymindset.substack.com/p/gbw342025
uncertaintymindset.substack.com
Thought support (wk 34/2025)
AI tools that support critical thinking; not-knowings, on demand; organisational interventions for uncertainty; subliminal learning, K4, satisfying toys, cat trains, bromism, and convincing others.
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
Current AI UX tricks us into thinking we're talking to something that can make value judgments. We're not. So I tested a prototype UX for an AI that helps users learn to think critically. Students went from vague to sharp arguments in 2hrs. More here: vaughntan.org/aiux
vaughntan.org
Designing AI tools that support critical thinking - Vaughn Tan
Current AI interfaces lull us into thinking we’re talking to something that can make meaningful judgments about what’s valuable. We’re not — we’re
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
Ran a multidisciplinary workshop to create practical mechanisms for experiencing not-knowing firsthand. We developed ideas like 'the camera of not-knowing' that teaches users how to act meaningfully even if they don't understand causation (yet). Read more about it here: vaughntan.org/nkondemand
vaughntan.org
Not-knowings, on demand - Vaughn Tan
In June, I ran a workshop with 15 researchers from diverse fields to develop practical, implementable mechanisms for experiencing different types of
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
Ran a multi-disciplinary workshop in Adelaide in June to develop mechanisms for experiencing different types of not-knowing. Result: ideas like 'the camera of not-knowing' that teaches how to take useful action without certain causation. A good read: vaughntan.org/nkondemand
vaughntan.org
Not-knowings, on demand - Vaughn Tan
In June, I ran a workshop with 15 researchers from diverse fields to develop practical, implementable mechanisms for experiencing different types of
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
this february, i test-ran a significantly refactored version of boris, my 1-day workshop for setting much better goals by talking about tradeoffs (vaughntan.org/boris).
vaughntan.org
Boris - Vaughn Tan
What is Boris?: Boris is a service I provide for businesses, not-for-profits, and public organisations — it’s a 1-2 day workshop designed to help
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 10/08/2025
Good categorisation wins over pure empiricism; Singapore's 60th birthday; a low-intervention wine experiment; the concept of enlightenment in Zen/Chan, aliveness in things and humans, drone delivery. uncertaintymindset.substack.com/p/gbw332025
uncertaintymindset.substack.com
Categorisation supremacy (wk 33/2025)
Good categorisation wins over pure empiricism; Singapore's 60th birthday; a low-intervention wine experiment; the concept of enlightenment in Zen/Chan, aliveness in things and humans, drone delivery.
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 09/08/2025
Categories aren’t academic—done well, they’re a competitive edge. They clarify decisions, help spot bad data, and make experiments faster. This post shows why good categorisation pays off: vaughntan.org/categorywins
vaughntan.org
(Good) categorisation beats empiricism - Vaughn Tan
tl;dr: Categories aren’t academic conceits—they’re tools that enable more effective practical action. If you care about making AI work in real-world
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 05/08/2025
This week: I put years (nearly 2 decades!) of not-knowing into 1 diagramme; stacking spaces; desert salmon, observances of death, apples and flags ranked, radioactive fruit flies, wasps, and tumbleweeds, dubious assessments of AI. More here: uncertaintymindset.substack.com/p/gbw322025
uncertaintymindset.substack.com
Rugged terrain (wk 32/2025)
Years of not-knowing in 1 diagramme; stacking spaces; desert salmon, observances of death, apples and flags ranked, radioactive fruit flies, wasps, and tumbleweeds, dubious assessments of AI.
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 03/08/2025
coffee roaster, cafe, training facility, cupping studio. all in the same space (in barcelona). i call these “stacked spaces”: layerings of uses that keeps cities weird and adaptive. wrote more here: stacked spaces → vaughntan.org/stackedspaces structured messes → vaughntan.org/structuredmess
vaughntan.org
Stacking spaces - Vaughn Tan
tl;dr: Hidden behind an unmarked doorway in Barcelona, two coffee businesses share the same small space — one roasting and selling, the other
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 02/08/2025
We often treat all unknowns as risk. That mindset hides deeper kinds of not-knowing—about what we could do, what could happen, how actions link to outcomes, and what we truly value. I wrote about why naming these differences matters, how it helps us make better decisions: vaughntan.org/nksynthesis
vaughntan.org
A not-knowing synthesis - Vaughn Tan
At base, I’ve been interested in the strategy implications of partial knowledge since 2008. Back then, I was investigating how people and
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 27/07/2025
This week I wrote about: Games of uncertainty (not risk); art thinking and generative uncertainty; veal parts; accidents of the knee and of wine; patterns in fashion, AI consultants, editable drawings, AI4HR; coffee time. uncertaintymindset.substack.com/p/gbw302025
uncertaintymindset.substack.com
The games we play (wk 30/2025)
Games of uncertainty (not risk); art thinking and generative uncertainty; veal parts; accidents of the knee and of wine; patterns in fashion, AI consultants, editable drawings, AI4HR; coffee time.
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 26/07/2025
I wrote about games that operationalise true uncertainty, not just simple risk, to help players become better at making decisions when facing different types of not-knowing. vaughntan.org/uncertaintyg...
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 20/07/2025
the now page is a very good idea this is what i've been doing now-ish: vaughntan.org/now-ish
vaughntan.org
now-ish - Vaughn Tan
The logistics of delivering from Singapore on consulting obligations entered into while based in France are complicated and unpleasant. So … I
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 18/07/2025
In Ljubljana teaching on resilience + uncertainty, and on meaningmaking and the future of work. Other bits: → “Human mRNA” → Slovenian rustication → Art thinking for uncertainty → Stovetop espresso innovation → Risk mindset and NYC floods Full post: uncertaintymindset.substack.com/p/gbw292025
uncertaintymindset.substack.com
Nonstandard methods (wk 29/2025)
Human mRNA; strategy for resilience and uncertainty; meaning-making and work in a time of AI; Slovenian stone; art thinking, stovetop espresso, more clothing manufacturers, our weird timeline.
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 13/07/2025
This week: This week, the AI expertise conundrum plus forest fires, frosty fingers, tuna collar, etc. tl;dr: AI helps experts ask better questions but misleads novices. Use it for synthesis, not invention — keep humans central to meaning-making. Read: uncertaintymindset.substack.com/p/gbw282025
uncertaintymindset.substack.com
Expertise conundrum (wk 28/2025)
The AI expertise conundrum; strong winds and forest fires, frosty fingers, household goods, tuna collar; animal chiropractors, making clothing in various places, exceptional R&D contractors.
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Reposted by vaughn
vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 06/07/2025
This week I wrote about why optimisation fails under true uncertainty—and why doing business is a meaning-making act, not a task to hand over to AI. Also: admin BS, heatwave fatigue, and the arduous search for good manufacturing. uncertaintymindset.substack.com/p/gbw2725
uncertaintymindset.substack.com
Fallacy lens (wk 27/2025)
Optimisation as fallacy; business as meaning-making act; the drudgery of administration; the search for good manufacture; working in a canicule.
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 06/07/2025
This week I wrote about why optimisation fails under true uncertainty—and why doing business is a meaning-making act, not a task to hand over to AI. Also: admin BS, heatwave fatigue, and the arduous search for good manufacturing. uncertaintymindset.substack.com/p/gbw2725
uncertaintymindset.substack.com
Fallacy lens (wk 27/2025)
Optimisation as fallacy; business as meaning-making act; the drudgery of administration; the search for good manufacture; working in a canicule.
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 05/07/2025
A friend fled the Middle East early in the last Israel-Iran flare-up—then felt foolish when it fizzled. The mistake wasn’t leaving too early. It was treating uncertainty like risk, and trying to optimise. Read more here: vaughntan.org/optfallacy
vaughntan.org
Optimisation fallacy - Vaughn Tan
tl;dr: A futurist friend recently made an expensive, early exit from the Middle East during a flare-up in the Israel-Iran conflict … then felt
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 05/07/2025
Anthropic’s AI shopkeeper failed not just because it was gullible, but because businesses require meaning-making. Business isn’t just executing tasks — it’s deciding what tasks matter and how to define success. Until AI can do that, it shouldn’t run businesses. More: vaughntan.org/bizmeaningma...
vaughntan.org
Business is a meaning-making act - Vaughn Tan
tl;dr: Anthropic’s experiment with using Claude as an autonomous shopkeeper (“Claudius”) failed — not just because the AI was gullible, but because
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 30/06/2025
this week i wrote about uncomfortable questions about unknowns; building AI tools for better meaning-making; problems, learned helplessness, performance, comfort, and dissonance. uncertaintymindset.substack.com/p/gbw262025
uncertaintymindset.substack.com
Tool-building (wk 26/2025)
Uncomfortable questions about unknowns; building AI tools for better meaning-making; problems, learned helplessness, performance, comfort, and dissonance.
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vaughn @vaughn.bsky.social · 30/06/2025
new essay today on building better AI tools for meaning-making: vaughntan.org/meaningtools tl;dr: design tools not just to generate human-indistinguishable outputs, but also to encourage robust user meaning-making.
vaughntan.org
Building AI tools for better meaning-making - Vaughn Tan
tl;dr: Instead of building tools that are designed to generate outputs indistinguishable from human outputs, we should be building AI tools that
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