Vasko Popa @vaskopopa.bsky.social · 09/04/2026Would you ask him if you had the chance? Wouldn’t that be a career suicide? 000
Vasko Popa @vaskopopa.bsky.social · 26/03/2026If another 5 days pass with the same silence (no ship name, no imagery, no new Iranian long-range demonstrations), I’d push “did not happen” above 75–80%. 000
Vasko Popa @vaskopopa.bsky.social · 26/03/2026In short, the claim is still the official Western/UK line with named UK ministers on record, but the persistent total lack of corroborating physical or granular details strengthens the case that this could be pure propaganda or heavily exaggerated. 100
Vasko Popa @vaskopopa.bsky.social · 26/03/2026If it did happen, probability it was someone else (false flag or misattribution): ~62–70% (most likely ~66%). 100
Vasko Popa @vaskopopa.bsky.social · 26/03/2026If it did happen, probability it was Iran: ~30–38% (most likely ~34%) — Attribution remains the weakest element, given Iran’s denial and the one-sided strategic benefit to hawks pushing “Iran now threatens the West.” 100
Vasko Popa @vaskopopa.bsky.social · 26/03/2026This increasingly resembles the historical pattern of intelligence-sourced claims (e.g., Gulf of Tonkin, Iraq WMD) that served short-term propaganda goals without ever yielding transparent proof. 100
Vasko Popa @vaskopopa.bsky.social · 26/03/2026Probability the event did not happen at all (fabricated, exaggerated, or false-flag/misattribution): ~60–70% (most likely ~65%) Upward revision due to the passage of 5+ days with zero additional operational details released despite the narrative’s value for deterrence/escalation pressure on Europe. 100
Vasko Popa @vaskopopa.bsky.social · 26/03/2026Searches across news sources and official statements yield 0 mentions of missile fragments, wreckage, or recovery efforts related to the failed/intercepted missiles near DG. In contrast, there are reports of falling debris from Iranian intercepts over Israel causing minor damage, but nothing here. 100
Vasko Popa @vaskopopa.bsky.social · 26/03/2026Iran continues to flatly deny any involvement, calling it an “Israeli false flag” or “Zionist false flag.” On debris from the alleged interception Confirmed: No public reports or evidence of debris recovery from the Diego Garcia incident itself. 100
Vasko Popa @vaskopopa.bsky.social · 26/03/2026However, your skepticism remains well-founded and the evidence gaps persist: • No named US warship (always “a US warship” or “US Navy warship”). • No launch coordinates, specific Iranian site/province, or telemetry data. • No public satellite imagery, radar tracks, or launch plume photos. 100
Vasko Popa @vaskopopa.bsky.social · 26/03/2026No damage occurred to the base, and “normal operations continue.” Outlets like CNN, Bloomberg, Hudson Institute, ISW, Times of Israel, and others treat it as an unsuccessful but significant Iranian attempt demonstrating extended range (~4,000 km). 100
Vasko Popa @vaskopopa.bsky.social · 26/03/2026UK officials (including Defence Secretary John Healey in Parliament and Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper) continue to publicly affirm that two Iranian ballistic missiles were launched toward Diego Garcia: one failed in flight, the other was intercepted short of the target by a US warship. 111
Vasko Popa @vaskopopa.bsky.social · 26/03/2026Updated assessment as of March 26, 2026 (now ~5–6 days since the initial reports broke around March 20–21): The story has not been retracted or debunked by any major Western outlet or government. 100
Vasko Popa @vaskopopa.bsky.social · 26/03/2026TL;DR: I asked Grok to assess the claim that Iran launched attack on Diego Garcia on March 20, which is used as a pre text for UK to embark on “defensive” actions. It gives probability 65% that this didn’t happen and if it did happen a further 34% it was Iran vs 66% someone else. Grok output below 100
Reposted by Vasko PopaCentral Bylines @centralbylines.co.uk · 26/03/2026In Iran, the attack on an elementary school cannot be dismissed as a consequence of war; it was illegal, and inhuman that children died | Lynda Tavakolicentralbylines.co.ukIran elementary school attack: innocent children of warIn Iran, the attack on an elementary school cannot be dismissed as a consequence of war; it was illegal, and inhuman that children died 0148
Vasko Popa @vaskopopa.bsky.social · 26/03/2026Is @mehdirhasan.bsky.social banned from Xtwitter or at least had his account suppressed? His account was very active until yesterday. There is nothing to see under his profile now. 021
Vasko Popa @vaskopopa.bsky.social · 06/02/2025Let me bite, although you know this: Trump is spelling outloud and with no shame that he endorses the genocide that Natanyahu's Israel has committed. Biden and Harris have spoken softly and with reserve but have materially and militarily enabled this genocide. Soft fascism is still fascism. 000
Vasko Popa @vaskopopa.bsky.social · 08/12/2024Nobody sent out a memo yet to say that ISIL are the good guys now. Wait a few days and they will all be on the same page. 000
Vasko Popa @vaskopopa.bsky.social · 01/12/2024 NATO has already established precedent for such interventions in Kosovo but we are not even talking about that against Israel. We are actively supporting them and aiding the genocide. That was my original point which triggered you so much. 000
Vasko Popa @vaskopopa.bsky.social · 30/11/2024Every US intervention has resulted in a vassal state that does what it’s told and our (USA) companies are getting favorable terms! 000
Vasko Popa @vaskopopa.bsky.social · 30/11/2024Yeah, i see you are bought into it. So please explain to me like I’m 5 why do you care enough about Ukrainian children to want to defend them at all costs, including our total mutual destruction, but not about children of Gaza to go to war against Israel to protect them? 100
Vasko Popa @vaskopopa.bsky.social · 30/11/2024Finally I feel like I’m breaking through! Neoliberal doctrine of the last 40 years has nothing to do with liberty or human rights but everything with imperialism. 100
Vasko Popa @vaskopopa.bsky.social · 30/11/2024I have enormous sympathy and respect for Ukrainian people but I feel it only appropriate to call out neoliberal imperialism for what it is. I have lived long enough to have seen “enduring freedom”, “merciful angel”, “iraqi freedom” etc. and to have seen the long term impact and the resulting profit 100
Vasko Popa @vaskopopa.bsky.social · 30/11/2024All the proxy wars that are happening right now are connected but we are digressing. Let’s stick to the point I am making which is that morality is an absolute value and not something that you apply when it fits your current goals. 110
Vasko Popa @vaskopopa.bsky.social · 30/11/2024You really have missed the point i was making, which is that you cannot be calling for humanitarian intervention in UA and at the same time enable IS to commit genocide AND be morally consistent. 200
Vasko Popa @vaskopopa.bsky.social · 30/11/2024Labeling is one of the laziest forms of argument and typically used by people who look into the mirror and don’t like what they see. Enjoy riding your high horse as you won’t learn anything from our exchange 100
Vasko Popa @vaskopopa.bsky.social · 29/11/2024It is not whataboutism to point out a hypocrisy of pretending to care for a cause that is aligned to your strategic interests but at the same time allow and abate unspeakable atrocity of an ally. humanism is a universal value and not isolated to a point of discussion that signals our virtue. 100
Vasko Popa @vaskopopa.bsky.social · 25/11/2024Serbia enters the chat. Point is, if ICC does not act against Israel, it surely must release Bosnian Serb leadership and compensate Milošević family for imprisoning a democratically elected leader. 120
Vasko Popa @vaskopopa.bsky.social · 25/11/2024They fell for the same trap you did: This is a class struggle disguised as a culture war. Until lines are clearly drawn in this struggle, grifters like Trump and Faridge will continue to blow smoke over mirrors. 020
Vasko Popa @vaskopopa.bsky.social · 19/11/2024Why is Ukraine a must-support but Gaza isn't? Are human rights universal, or is there a formula which we apply to make them important in one situation and not relevant in another? 130
Vasko Popa @vaskopopa.bsky.social · 18/11/2024Before y'all get too excited, the planets are 6x and 14x the size of our Jupiter and therefore very unlikely to host life remotely resembling anything found on Earth 110
