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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 14h

Rightwing-led Chile may join the fray over the Falklands Islands over trade links. It may not be in Argentina's favor. The U.S. decision to support Argentina's claims on the island now threatens NATO ally UK, a friendly Chilean govt., and regional peace. www.latintimes.com/chilean-inte...

latintimes.com

Chilean Intelligence Warns of "Critical Event" With Argentina Over Danstar Ship Departure

Chilean intelligence warns the Danstar's voyage to the Falklands could spark a rupture with Argentina, testing two binding 19th- and 20th-century treaties.

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

There is a way to pitch a product for your firm to signal to the client that you don't believe in what you're saying, the product's awful, but they should continue to trust you, and your future firm will have a far better product. Surprised to see it play out in national politics, is all.

static.klipy.com

Jon Hamm's knowing smile and gesture

ALT: Jon Hamm's knowing smile and gesture

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

In terms of my experiences at elite universities, I have visited the campuses of Cornell and Arizona State.

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

In this last aspect, Brazil depends on Russia and China. Russia for energy and fertilizer. China is Brazil's largest trading partner. So, these will remain, thus, Brazil will stay in BRICS. This is India's logic too What Brazil can become is a pro-U.S. voice. India may shift to be an EU voice. 3/3

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

There was a mention of an alternate currency or payment system. The problem is India is afraid of China dominating it. Russia finds it easier to deal with India bilaterally. South Africa and India's economies are too tied to Euro/USD. So what remains are bilateral trade relationships. 2/3

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

I don't think BRICS will be affected by Flavio Bolsonaro's election. Thread. BRICS is not some alternative non-U.S./Euro international organization. It's a loose collection of nations whose economies in some (most?) cases are more tied to the U.S./EU than other BRICS members. 1/3

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Hi Americanists, Corruption and nepotism doesn't matter in ethnic politics. In fact, they are lauded as grabbing state assets and power for the in-group. Regards, The CP Guy

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Basically, the family firm is coming apart at the edges due to bad business decisions, firing of experienced professional staff, hiring of incompetent bootlickers, and outright theft and skimming.

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

All the stuff in Project 2025 has been circulating in DC discourse for years nay decades, especially in 2nd and 3rd tier think tanks. Just that GOP politicians, specifically legislators but sometimes governors, kept them out of policy because they wanted to get reelected.

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Is there an economic history book that connects the financial Panic of 1907 to the Wall Street Crash of 1929?

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

The political influence of tech oligarch problem is a bipartisan one with bipartisan origins. This is a fact not my opinion.

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

lol Hispanohablantes when our faculty lounges and activists tried to create and impose a word in their language on them.

static.klipy.com

Juan Camaney Harass

ALT: Juan Camaney Harass

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

What state-level Dem and GOP candidates are telling the national parties in this cycle is: buzz off! It reflects the politics of large, federal countries. I see this happening in India, too. Essentially, ideology can't paper over that national and local concerns are increasingly not overlapping.

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

As impossible as this sounds today, there will be a general amnesty proposal for all undocumented/illegal immigrants. This new cleavage will lead to a break up of the Trump coalition and defection from the GOP akin to the Know Nothings and slavery. Will it actually lead to amnesty? I don't know.

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

It's amazing that this kinda stuff was quite common with West Germany too. Double agents were used by the Soviets and allegedly us, too. Look up Heinze Felfe. Also, the Guillaume Affair that was an epic intel failure.

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Reposted by Vasabjit Banerjee

Christoph Harig @charig.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Absolutely insane story about the arrest of August Hanning, former head of German intelligence agency BND Added gimmick is that investigators only found out because Hanning is accused of involvement in another absolutely insane story of a German millionaire trying to abduct her own children

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Former spy chief of Germany August Hanning caught spying for a foreign power. At its heart CW2 remains quite similar to CW1.

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Putin has close ties to both Lula and Bolsonaro. China is Brazil's largest trading partner. Flashy ties may be reduced, but trade will continue because cuts will cause economic pain. The Brazilian army is divided, which means Bolsonaro Jr. can't count on them to quash protests without a coup risk.

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

I literally want to pen a piece that lists the salient issues in every Latin American presidential election in the last 3 years. There will be outliers and all. The main character energy of Americans on the right and left is essentially wrong. It's an age old problem, though.

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Despite who says what about USAID supporting leftist parties in Latin America, the electoral victories of conservative presidents have much more to do with economic stagnation and law and order crises, ethnic politics, etc.. Domestic conditions and actors are key.

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Reposted by Vasabjit Banerjee

Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Taiwan's local elections are not about China, Lai, the US, Trump, or war. Whatever the outcome, do not read the results as a national referendum. But, these races do matter for Taiwan's future. Here's why: My latest with @brianhioe.bsky.social for The Diplomat: thediplomat.com/2026/10/taiw...

thediplomat.com

Taiwan’s Local Elections Are Not About China, President Lai, or the United States

Candidates across Taiwan are campaigning on local issues that vary by city – not topics like cross-strait relations. What can we learn from these elections?

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

TIL: always knew it was the opposite.

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

American Anti-Indian racism is much more similar to our version of anti-Semitism than racism against Blacks and Hispanics. It's declining or aspiring elites' fears about getting "layered" in corporate speak. Combined with a nostalgia about a could've been, never was. I call them Uncle Ricos.

static.klipy.com

Uncle Rico's State Champion Claim

ALT: Uncle Rico's State Champion Claim

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

That's about all it took for Churchill to the right thing in 1939, though. That little bit does matter.

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Yes, and this necessitates a stronger NATO. There's no way Poland and other continental powers (read: France) will accept a properly rearmed Germany otherwise.

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Yup, but theories that need data for confirmation and possibly nuancing as well. E.g., presidentialism, but with a common law system and a way more developed economy.

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

I beseech y'all not to apply American politics explanations to Brazilian and Latin American politics and make the U.S. the protagonist or antagonist in these countries' politics. They have domestic actors and factors, i.e., agency. Not to mention ties with other foreign powers like Russia and China.

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

If Bolsonaro Jr. is elected, it will affect the Essequibo dispute between Guyana and Venezuela. Venezuela recently reiterated its claims. Bolsonaro is pro-Guyana; Lula didn’t want to depose Maduro, but deployed forces at their shared border to deter Venezuela. orinocotribune.com/venezuela-re...

orinocotribune.com

Venezuela Reaffirms Sovereign Rights Over Essequibo, Makes Calls to Guyana for Direct Dialogue

The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela reaffirms before the international community its historic, firm, and irrevocable rejection of the null and void, fraudulent Paris Arbitration Award of 1899.

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

If Bolsonaro Jr. wins, Brazil will be part of a Latin American wave of rightwing presidents. He won't be an outlier. The left wing's economic policies aren't (sufficiently) popular and people want the hard mano dura law and order. The army's reentry into politics in the region affects this too.

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Musk knows how to run a para-statal industry. Tesla was (is?) subsidized. Starlink is too and has government contracts. As with all para-statals, there's crony capitalism, corruption, and nepotism. The profits are private, the losses are public. That is about it.

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

I am tired of saying this, but most current analysis of Latin American politics is not valid if it doesn't account for civil-military relations. Not even Colombia, Argentina, and Guyana. There could be outliers like the Dominican Republic and Costa Rica, but they are few.

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

I chatted with perhaps the foremost Brazil specialist. He said, there was little enthusiasm for Lula and Lula wasn't even trying. I know the army is now pretty openly into politics. A few flag officers tried to assassinate Lula. They are not united, though. Bolsonaro's return has many causes.

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Apropos of nothing, the best dressed smartest looking army of WW2 was the Chinese Nationalist one. In contrast the Japanese looked like they were on a jungle safari. The Indian army, sans their elaborate ceremonial uniforms, looked like second class Tommies.

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Hate using normal theory, but there's many a slip betwixt a civilian attempt to impose subjective control over an objective system and actually achieving it. OTOH, it can all go horribly wrong for the civilian leaders: leaving institutional problems for decades and a constant danger of backsliding.

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Interesting take on recent events.

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

There's always a slight chance that a Saudi military operation will lead to a coup attempt in Saudi Arabia. lol

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

When historians write about America in the early 21st Century, they should note that a profound moral bankruptcy and license thereof became prevalent among business elites after the 2007-2008 financial ceisis. They may also note a similar event in 1907.

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

State tax holidays on gas aren't free. They are important sources of state revenue. They will affect service delivery and the shortfall will have to be made up later, perhaps with interest or more investments,...by taxpayers.

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

You mean the world doesn't work like a faculty meeting?!?

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Quite consciously so, too. The wealthiest part of MS are Memphis, TN suburbs, if I recall correctly..

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

You want to buy an old palace or mansion in India? I hope you're cool without indoor plumbing, modern wiring, and water leaks. Oh, and rodents. lol

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

I suspect, it's similar with the agro-capitalist West TN elites who dominated the economy from Memphis. The post-bellum transport and light industry (Chattanooga) then 1940s TVA-based (+Knoxville) East TN economy forced them to accommodate.

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Reposted by Vasabjit Banerjee

Jon Pennington @jonpennington.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

It definitely reframes a lot of Southern intellectual history. The Agrarians rejected modernization altogether. The segregationist "Southern liberals" of the Progressive & New Deal era welcomed modernization, but tried to find an incrementalist way to evolve the hierarchy.

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Vasabjit Banerjee @vasabjit.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

In Hirschman's terms, "exit" maintains social stability in the southeast because "voice" threatens economic and political elites. But it can't handle "entry" of millions, especially those aspiring to directly join elite ranks sans accepting the rules of the order. CA conservatives are TN liberals.

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