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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

one more thing: JAMS defaults to 75 demands before it counts as mass arbitration, and that's Amazon's own chosen provider. Amazon's clause cuts the threshold to 25, tighter than the rules it's supposed to run under.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Newsletter link is in Tweet 3, with the $309 million settlement the old rules allowed and Google's April clause.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Cases filed before August 14 keep going, but new claims arbitrate no matter when the conduct happened. If Amazon overcharged you in 2024 and you find out in 2027, you're arbitrating alone.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

The 2021 wave worked because Amazon owed a fee on each of those 75,000 claims. Both providers reset those schedules in 2024, and JAMS now charges a flat $8,000 to open a mass arbitration of any size. Amazon didn't cause the reset, but it wrote its terms to take advantage of it.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Amazon's terms require a dispute notice and a 60-day wait before you can file, and anyone funding your claim discloses it. Amazon then batches them, 25 at a minimum. "It effectively makes it impossible to bring mass arbitrations," says Raphael Janove, a plaintiffs' lawyer.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Amazon benefits. A $10 charge is worth nothing to fight alone, a great deal together, so removing the group removes the claim. On your own, your filing fee is $250 to argue over $10 (per CNET). Every US Amazon account is covered, roughly 175 million Prime memberships included.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Amazon emailed customers on August 14 saying the terms were effective immediately, and continued use counts as agreement. Amazon disclosed no opt-out, and none has turned up since.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Amazon's terms treat 25 or more coordinated demands in six months as a "Mass Arbitration." JAMS, the provider Amazon chose, sets its own default at 75. I had to read that twice. The 25 is the American Arbitration Association's threshold, and AAA is the provider Amazon dropped.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Amazon deleted its arbitration clause in May 2021, after roughly 75,000 Alexa owners filed individual claims and left it holding the arbitrators' bill. On August 14 the same sentence came back, close to word for word. If you've ordered anything since, that's how you agreed.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

quick follow-up: Nvidia's Aug 17 8-K disclosed a $105B guaranty on OpenAI's Ohio data-center leases. biggest public number on the exposure yet, and it's Nvidia's filing obligation, not OpenAI's own.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

Newsletter link is in post 3: the CFO's reporting-line change, the bank fee math. Anthropic submitted its own confidential draft on June 1, a week before OpenAI announced one. Whichever files publicly first puts an AI company's compute commitments into the public record.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

It hasn't picked one. Friar told employees on August 19 that OpenAI will be a public company in 2027. Until a date exists, the company's own account of what it can afford stays with the SEC.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

Confidential review comes with a written condition OpenAI agreed to: publicly file the draft, and every amendment, at least 15 days before the roadshow, risk factors included. OpenAI is the one that picks the roadshow date.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

Altman and Friar answered jointly: "This is ridiculous. We are totally aligned on buying as much compute as we can." A spokesperson called the report prime clickbait.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

The Wall Street Journal reported that warning on April 27. The market read it as information: Oracle fell 3.4%, Arm 6.3%, CoreWeave 2.8% in the same session (per Reuters).

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

On June 8 the CEO published OpenAI's plan for AI's next phase, promising everyone on Earth a personal AGI. It runs 8,021 characters and never uses the words capex, financing, funding, or data center.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

In April, OpenAI's CFO told colleagues the company might not be able to pay for future computing contracts if revenue doesn't grow fast enough.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

Two of those banks are now working on OpenAI's draft prospectus (per Reuters), and no underwriting syndicate has been named yet. The individual investors they recruited are the ones who can't read what OpenAI writes about its own risk.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

Who benefits: OpenAI gets cover here more than capital. JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs pulled more than $3 billion out of individual investors in March, three times their $1 billion target.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

TIME's August 26 piece puts OpenAI's 2026 compute spend at $50 billion. Altman told the same reporters he can use it all profitably. His compute chief, Sachin Katti, told them the company is still short of compute.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

That $46 million is the one number here I'd expect people to misread. OpenAI rents nearly all of its compute instead of owning it, so the spending that matters runs through operating expense, where capex accounting never sees it.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

None of that breaks a rule. OpenAI is private, owes the SEC nothing under the Exchange Act, and long-term purchase commitments belong in footnotes under standard accounting. The commitments are dated as of March 31, 2026, and cover Microsoft, Oracle, Amazon and Stargate.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

The Information reviewed OpenAI's confidential draft. Roughly $665 billion of chip, energy and data-center purchase commitments sit in the footnotes, next to $46 million of capital spending for the quarter. Unaudited, and from a leak rather than a filing.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

The full read: why OpenAI's own written account of what it can and can't afford stays with the SEC until it schedules a roadshow. www.unfilteredledger.com/p/afb2717f-...

unfilteredledger.com

OpenAI's $665B Sits in a Footnote

CFO Sarah Friar told colleagues in April OpenAI might not be able to pay for what it signed.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

OpenAI announced in June that it had submitted IPO paperwork to the SEC. An August 27 EDGAR search returns no public S-1, and no CIK for OpenAI Group PBC at all.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

Nvidia's August 17 8-K discloses a $105 billion capped, conditional guaranty on OpenAI's Ohio data-center leases. That number's public only because Nvidia's own filing rules forced it into disclosure, an obligation OpenAI doesn't carry yet.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

three anchor investors got guaranteed access to $7B of this offering at $149, over a quarter of the deal. Baillie Gifford, Coatue, and Situational Awareness Partners are named in the 424(b)(4). basically no coverage anywhere.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

Korean press put the underwriters' take near $130 million before pricing, on a 0.5% fee assumption. The filed figure is $257,545,830, public on EDGAR since July 9. Newsletter link is in post 3, with the anchor allocation and why Morgan Stanley isn't on the deal.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

SKHY closed at $155.37 on August 24, still above the offer price, so the $149 buyer who held isn't underwater. The heaviest losses hit Seoul retail in 2x leveraged single-stock ETFs that launched May 27, two months before the crash.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

SK Hynix said the same thing on the morning of the second drop: the industry is moving into "improving utilization," not "a phase of reduced AI investment." Then it raised its own 2026 capex plan to $31 billion (per Korea Times).

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

Capex kept rising through the crash, which is the part the bubble headline skips. Amazon raised 2026 guidance to $220 billion on July 30, tying it to higher memory chip costs (per CNBC). No hyperscaler announced an absolute cut.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

The stock fell 14.65% on July 28 and 9.61% on July 29. The KOSPI tripped circuit breakers on both days, the first back-to-back pair in its history, and hit a trough 43.9% under its June 19 peak (per Anadolu Agency).

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

Nineteen days after pricing, SK Hynix printed its best quarter on record and still missed. ₩79.3 trillion revenue against ₩84 trillion expected, ₩60.5 trillion operating profit against ₩64 trillion, at a 76% margin (per Reuters).

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

Three anchor investors, Baillie Gifford Overseas, Coatue Management and Situational Awareness Partners, indicated interest in up to $7 billion at the offer price. That's more than a quarter of the deal, locked in with no bidding risk, at the same discount as the banks.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

SK Hynix cleared $26,249,554,170 before expenses, at a price set during the rally. Proceeds go to the Yongin Y1 fab, Cheongju packaging and about ₩12 trillion of EUV tools (per Korean trade press citing the filing).

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

Who gets paid first: the four banks, on July 9, for marketing a deal off a prospectus they helped assemble. The discount is negotiated before the shares change hands and deducted from gross proceeds at closing.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

A few sections away, the same filing shows what that looks like in practice: a ₩7.73 trillion operating loss in 2023, about $5.6 billion. US customers, the buyers the risk factor names, were 68.8% of 2025 revenue.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

From the June 24 F-1: "A slowdown in demand for our products from AI infrastructure investment could adversely affect our results of operations."

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

The price sheet is in the final prospectus, filed July 9. Underwriting discount of $1.4477 on each of 177,900,000 ADSs sold. That works out to 0.972%, taken off the top before SK Hynix sees a dollar.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

The underwriters, led by BofA, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, booked $257,545,830 the day it priced. That figure settled on July 9 and nothing after it moved.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

Fifteen days after telling the SEC an AI-spending slowdown could hurt its results, SK Hynix sold $26.5 billion of stock at $149 an ADS. If you bought the July 10 Nasdaq debut, $149 is your basis.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

six days after agreeing to pay Poolside roughly $7B, Nvidia's two hour Q2 earnings call: zero mentions of Poolside. three of Nemotron.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Nvidia priced Poolside at $12 billion pre-money last October, and $12 billion again in August, after Poolside lost the cluster, the anchor tenant and the round. Newsletter link is in post 3. It has the earnings call six days after the deal where Poolside never comes up.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

A month before the deal broke, Poolside shipped Laguna S 2.1, a 118-billion-parameter open-weight coding model. Its own release claims it matches or exceeds models several times its size, naming Nvidia's 550-billion-parameter Nemotron 3 Ultra among the comparators.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Poolside's investors get what the failed round couldn't deliver. The $6 billion license fee is slated to reach shareholders before the end of 2027, per Quartz and The Next Web, with no sale to consent to. The founders keep the company, the name and a fresh $1 billion.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Who benefits. Nvidia gets a proven training pipeline and no review clock, for a buyer holding roughly 90% of the high-end data center GPU market. That share comes from Warren and Blumenthal's March letter to Jensen Huang.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Eight days later, Slater was out. Politico reported she was given the choice to resign or be dismissed after losing the confidence of Attorney General Pam Bondi, over an unrelated merger fight. Her predecessor took the job back and gave Reuters that "red flag" line five weeks later.

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Unfiltered Ledger @unfilteredledger.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

No enforcement action has followed against any of the three. On February 4, Warren, Wyden and Blumenthal wrote to DOJ antitrust chief Gail Slater, naming this exact structure as an apparent attempt to bypass merger scrutiny.

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