Reposted by Ulaş Erdoğducounster.bsky.social @counster.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Pleased to share that @ulaserdogdu.bsky.social's article was shortlisted for the Cedric Smith Prize, which recognizes outstanding peace and conflict research by a PhD candidate 🎉 Ulaş's article, published in Review of International Studies, is available open access here doi.org/10.1017/S026...doi.orgLeadership decapitation in civil war: Leadership arrest and the negotiations between the state and the insurgents | Review of International Studies | Cambridge CoreLeadership decapitation in civil war: Leadership arrest and the negotiations between the state and the insurgents 021
Reposted by Ulaş Erdoğducounster.bsky.social @counster.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Our PI @efetokdemir.bsky.social and predoc fellow @ulaserdogdu.bsky.social attended the Conflict Research Society Annual Conference at the University of Glasgow on 9–10 Sept. They presented their ongoing work on foreign policy and public opinion, and rebel social origins and dynamics of civil war. 021
Reposted by Ulaş ErdoğduRoberta Buffett Institute for Global Affairs @buffett.northwestern.edu · 15/09/2026How do different forms of repression operate together, and how do these measures shape public attitudes? Drawing on evidence from Turkey, Buffett Research Fellow Ulaş Erdoğdu (@polisciatnu.bsky.social) co-authored research seeking to answer this question. Read: academic.oup.com/jpr/advance-... 033
Reposted by Ulaş Erdoğducounster.bsky.social @counster.bsky.social · 11/09/2026👋 Meet @ulaserdogdu.bsky.social , pre-doctoral researcher. A PhD candidate in Political Science at Northwestern, Ulaş studies political violence, civil wars & social science methodology. On COUNSTER, he brings deep expertise in conflict data & multi-method design. See our website for details! 021
Ulaş Erdoğdu @ulaserdogdu.bsky.social · 04/09/2026Made possible by @keymanmts.bsky.social @buffett.northwestern.edu @polisciatnu.bsky.social 010
Ulaş Erdoğdu @ulaserdogdu.bsky.social · 04/09/2026We argue that repression is multilayered: protest bans may not only restrict protest directly, but also make subsequent police repression more acceptable to the broader public. Using a survey experiment, we find that prior protest bans increase public support for subsequent police intervention, 110
Ulaş Erdoğdu @ulaserdogdu.bsky.social · 04/09/2026Happy to announce that our new article with Mert Arslanalp and @tdenizerkmen.bsky.social , “Do protest bans make police repression more acceptable? Experimental evidence on the effects of legal repression from Turkey,” is now published in the @jpeaceresearch.bsky.social. doi.org/10.1093/jopr...doi.orgDo protest bans make police repression more acceptable? Experimental evidence on the effects of legal repression from TurkeyAbstract. In explaining whether protest repression incites or suppresses mobilization, research on the repression–dissent nexus has underlined the importan 164
Ulaş Erdoğdu @ulaserdogdu.bsky.social · 08/04/2026Happy to share that my article, “Leadership Decapitation in Civil War: Leadership Arrest and Negotiations between the State and Insurgents,” was shortlisted for the 2026 Cedric Smith Prize. You can read the article open access here: doi.org/10.1017/S026...doi.orgLeadership decapitation in civil war: Leadership arrest and the negotiations between the state and the insurgents | Review of International Studies | Cambridge CoreLeadership decapitation in civil war: Leadership arrest and the negotiations between the state and the insurgents 021
Ulaş Erdoğdu @ulaserdogdu.bsky.social · 18/01/2026My reflections on using AI for qualitative comparative political science: 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗔𝗜 𝗧𝗼𝗼𝗹𝘀 𝗖𝗮𝗻 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗯𝘂𝘁𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗰𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲?: 𝗔 𝗣𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝗳𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 www.linkedin.com/posts/ula%C5...linkedin.com𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗔𝗜 𝗧𝗼𝗼𝗹𝘀 𝗖𝗮𝗻 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗯𝘂𝘁𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗰𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲?: 𝗔 𝗣𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝗳𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 There’s been a lot… | Ulaş Erdoğdu𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗔𝗜 𝗧𝗼𝗼𝗹𝘀 𝗖𝗮𝗻 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗯𝘂𝘁𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗰𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲?: 𝗔 𝗣𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝗳𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 There’s been a lot of talk recently about using AI tools in quantitative social science, with some fol... 000
Reposted by Ulaş ErdoğduKeyman Modern Turkish Studies Program @keymanmts.bsky.social · 14/01/2026Applications for the Keyman Early-Career Scholars Article Workshop Spring 2026 are open until February 20. For more information, please visit: keyman.buffett.northwestern.edu/.../early-ca.... 068
Ulaş Erdoğdu @ulaserdogdu.bsky.social · 03/01/2026How Maduro will respond: will he try to govern his country in prison? Or perhaps provide intelligence to the US in exchange for favorable treatment? How will Venezuelan elites react? Will some side-switch? These are dynamics we see in civil wars, and may appear here too. 000
Ulaş Erdoğdu @ulaserdogdu.bsky.social · 03/01/2026In particular, the arrest signals US power vis-à-vis Venezuela and strengthens its bargaining position. The fact that the US could pull off an operation like this also suggests that a three-way bargain between Maduro, his allies/Venezuelan elites, and the US was already underway. 100
Ulaş Erdoğdu @ulaserdogdu.bsky.social · 03/01/2026In this case, the bargaining will be between Maduro, Venezuelan elites/allies, and the United States. Now much will depend on the extent of Maduro's influence on Venezuela's elites and the new bargaining dynamic. 100
Ulaş Erdoğdu @ulaserdogdu.bsky.social · 03/01/2026I argued that the literature focuses too much on the military/operational consequences of leadership decapitation at the expense of its consequences for negotiations. Basically, arrest results in a new bargaining game between the arrested leader, his organization and the state. 110
Ulaş Erdoğdu @ulaserdogdu.bsky.social · 03/01/2026Although arrest of a sitting president isn’t the same as arrest of an armed group leader, my work on leadership decapitation has some parallels for thinking through Maduro's arrest/kidnapping by the US since arrest shapes incentives and bargaining dynamics doi.org/10.1017/S026....doi.orgLeadership decapitation in civil war: Leadership arrest and the negotiations between the state and the insurgents | Review of International Studies | Cambridge CoreLeadership decapitation in civil war: Leadership arrest and the negotiations between the state and the insurgents 121
Ulaş Erdoğdu @ulaserdogdu.bsky.social · 23/10/2025Ruşen Çakır'la @rusencakir.bsky.social süreç üzerine keyifli bir sohbet yaptık. Sürecin başarıya ulaşma ihtimalini arttıran faktörleri, başarısızlıkla sonuçlanmasını neden daha olası gördüğümü ve başarılı olursa bile demokratikleşme getirme ihtimalini neden düşük gördüğümü anlattım. 010
Reposted by Ulaş ErdoğduBISA - British International Studies Association @mybisa.bsky.social · 24/07/2025'Leadership decapitation in civil war: Leadership arrest and the negotiations between the state and the insurgents.' @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org 📚 @risjnl.bsky.social #openaccess article by @ulaserdogdu.bsky.social out NOW 🎉 Read Ulaş's key arguments 👉 buff.ly/0rLXs9e DOI 👉 buff.ly/Z3NPCdVbuff.lyLeadership decapitation in civil war: Leadership arrest and the negotiations between the state and the insurgents.Ulaş Erdoğdu discusses the key points from his new Review of International Studies article. 033
Reposted by Ulaş ErdoğduCambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 21/07/2025#OpenAccess from @risjnl.bsky.social - Leadership decapitation in civil war: Leadership arrest and the negotiations between the state and the insurgents - cup.org/4kI3i7j - @ulaserdogdu.bsky.social #FirstView 032
Ulaş Erdoğdu @ulaserdogdu.bsky.social · 02/07/2025Excited and honored that my paper Nearly Realized Cases received an Honorable Mention for the 2024 Kendra Koivu Paper Award from @apsa.bsky.social’s Qualitative and Multi-Method Research Section. Grateful to be recognized by a section central to my work and my department @polisciatnu.bsky.social! 041
Ulaş Erdoğdu @ulaserdogdu.bsky.social · 22/02/2025I’m happy to share that my article, Democratization, Foreign Military Intervention, and Rebel Fragmentation in Civil War: Evidence from the PKK Insurgency in Turkey, has won the Best Article Award in Kurdish Studies, given by the Kurdish Political Studies Program at the University of Central Florida 010
Reposted by Ulaş ErdoğduUlaş Erdoğdu @ulaserdogdu.bsky.social · 04/12/2024My first post here! Check out my recently published and very first solo-authored article on how democratization and foreign military intervention can result in rebel fragmentation in Journal of Global Security Studies. @polviolencepapers.bsky.social doi.org/10.1093/jogs...doi.orgDemocratization, Foreign Military Intervention, and Rebel Fragmentation in Civil War: Evidence from the PKK Insurgency in TurkeyAbstract. In this paper, by studying the fragmentation of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in 2004, I identify two distinct pathways to rebel fragmentati 131
Ulaş Erdoğdu @ulaserdogdu.bsky.social · 04/12/2024Using PKK's fragmentation in 2004 as a theory-building case study, I identify two new pathways to rebel fragmentation that were previously not identified in the literature. The abstract and schematic-stylized visualizations summarize the argument. 000
Ulaş Erdoğdu @ulaserdogdu.bsky.social · 04/12/2024My first post here! Check out my recently published and very first solo-authored article on how democratization and foreign military intervention can result in rebel fragmentation in Journal of Global Security Studies. @polviolencepapers.bsky.social doi.org/10.1093/jogs...doi.orgDemocratization, Foreign Military Intervention, and Rebel Fragmentation in Civil War: Evidence from the PKK Insurgency in TurkeyAbstract. In this paper, by studying the fragmentation of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in 2004, I identify two distinct pathways to rebel fragmentati 131