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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Here's how viewing prospects currently look for peak of the eclipse tomorrow using the UKV 06z run. Higher values = more favourable viewing conditions. 70+ is generally encouraging, while below 50 increasingly suggests problematic low/medium cloud.

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

An AMBER extreme heat warning has now been issued for a large swathe of central England, extending into the Home Counties. The Met Office is highlighting the potential for temperatures to reach 37-38°C across parts of eastern, southeastern and central England.

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

England is looking rather... crispy. This Sentinel-2 satellite image from 8 August really puts the persistence of the dry weather into perspective.

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

Number of days reaching 30°C or above using Met Office HadUK provisional data up to 31st July. This number has risen since then in the last 10 days. For some parts of the country, 30°C hasn't been an occasional extreme this summer. It's been a recurring feature.

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

Viewing proxy using the 03z UKV for the maximum point of the eclipse on Wednesday. It samples conditions W-WNW of each location to better reflect the low position of the sun around maximum eclipse. Higher values = a more favourable modelled line of sight.

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

The Dragonera buoy, west of Mallorca, recorded a sea surface temperature of 33°C this afternoon. If confirmed, it would be the highest buoy recorded temperature in the Mediterranean. Much of the basin is in a Strong-Severe marine heatwave, with pockets of Extreme.

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 19/04/2026

It could be a grand end to April and start of May for the UK should 06z GFS verify. There are still a fair few ensembles that collapse the high or retrogress it to turn it cooler and more unsettled. This is occurring in the guidance around the 26th-28th.

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 16/04/2026

Some new things! My site is live and accessible: ukwx.github.io I have also developed a LAI.v1 (Lightning Activity Index) model, which in its initial stage appeared to overdo risks, but LAI.v2 is in the works and should have significant upgrades as well as extra features.

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 16/04/2026

High pressure is on the way! Positioning of the high will be crucial on our weather. Risk of some overnight frosts. Let's just hope the 00z ECMWF is wrong in bringing a northerly in the last 6 days of April. 😅

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 16/04/2026

Think I'll become more active on here in due course. Just going to freshen things up and post a few things!

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 20/01/2025

Some very stormy charts continue to be shown for Friday by the global models - there remains great uncertainty on exact positioning and potential intensity of the winds. Location will matter on areas at greatest risk of strongest of the winds. Eyes peeled on the models!

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 25/09/2024

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK VALID: Tomorrow, 26th September More info: www.instagram.com/p/DAW0QSdiBLE/

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 21/09/2024

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK VALID: Today Interactive map: ukwxupdates.org More info: www.instagram.com/p/DALV3XLClzZ/ [UPDATE 1] Thunderstorms are expected to develop again through this afternoon, some of which may be locally strong.

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 19/09/2024

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK VALID: Tomorrow, 20th September Interactive map: ukwxupdates.org More info: www.instagram.com/p/DAGfQ18C8pw/ [UPDATE 1] A trough moving through tomorrow afternoon, with embedded instability, will allow the development of thundery showers and thunderstorms.

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 12/09/2024

A sunshine and shower kind of day again - less windy today so could fly the drone up and catch this passing heavy shower ☔️

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 05/09/2024

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK VALID: Tomorrow, 6th September Interactive map: ukwxupdates.org More info: www.instagram.com/p/C_iMn87C-Lp/ [UPDATE 1] Through early tomorrow morning, with an unstable air continuing to be present, this is likely to bring a further risk of thunderstorms.

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 31/08/2024

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK VALID: Tomorrow, 1st September Interactive map: ukwxupdates.org More info: www.instagram.com/p/C_WCbEaij84/ [UPDATE 1] Significant uncertainty remains on thunderstorm development, if any, through tomorrow afternoon.

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 30/08/2024

Meteorological summer ends tomorrow, and what a rather uneventful summer it's been in terms of weather for me! The only real things I will take away from this summer's weather is end of July heat, thunderstorms on 1st August and Storm Lilian.

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 30/08/2024

Perhaps a little less uncertainty now. ECM OP and its ensembles remain rather keen on a disturbance to be stuck and move over the UK and to our W/SW GFS differs, but there are about 17/30 of its ensembles suggesting a scenario more akin of the ECMWF. ECMWF ensembles largely supportive of ECM OP.

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 29/08/2024

A decent weekend coming up! Temperatures generally around 18-22°C. SE looks to be more prone to cloud this time around, but plenty of dry weather in store. Might need to watch the possibility of something thundery through Sunday in the SE.

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 29/08/2024

High pressure beginning to build in today, what looks to be a rather warm and sunny weekend! However.. as I mentioned a couple days ago, that weakness in between the initial build of pressure and a rebuild of the Azores high needed watching, which continues to be modeled.

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 26/08/2024

All that build of high pressure just for us to sit under the 'green blob' of doom thanks to a weakness in the ridging. 🧐 One of many possible outcomes as we go into this weekend and start of next week.

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 24/08/2024

Please be aware that currently the weather

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 22/08/2024

#StormLilian located just to the west of Ireland at the moment

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 22/08/2024

Possible rainfall totals over the next 72 hours ☔️

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 22/08/2024

With #StormLilian being named, that brings this storm season's storm count to 12, beating 2015/16's 11 to become the most active storm season so far. Additionally, Lilian is the 5th named storm in August and the 2nd latest named storm on record, just beaten by Francis (2020) named on 24th August.

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 20/08/2024

ChatGPT does not mess around 🫢

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 19/08/2024

#Ernesto remains a hurricane at a relatively high latitude of 43.8°N (similar latitude to just off the northern coast of Spain).

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 19/08/2024

Going to be a windy one tomorrow afternoon through the majority of the country. Widespread heavy showers in the NW, some, potentially a bit thundery.

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 19/08/2024

Weather we so love is back ☔️

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 18/08/2024

Wildfires from Canada making for a murky sunset here in the UK. Cheeky shot of an airplane on the right of course!

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 16/08/2024

The jet stream behind Ernesto's passage will become quite enhanced - while not a washout, could be a rather showery and breezy period of weather through 22nd-26th.

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 15/08/2024

Unlike the remnants of hurricane Debby which allowed some amplification of the high leading to a period of warmer/hotter weather, the remnants of hurricane #Ernesto look to enhance the Atlantic influence after its passage.

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 13/08/2024

A small risk of some thundery downpours around the Home Counties tomorrow - UKV showing a somewhat greater extent of thundery showers.

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 13/08/2024

Could be quite a wet night for a few places tonight within this area, varied model outputs, but below is the UKV for 4am. Some quite heavy rain mixed in with that. ☔️

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Reposted by UK Weather Updates

MetJam @metjam.co.uk · 12/08/2024

Perseids and the aurora last night here in Herne Bay. 0100 BST, 0142 BST and 0352 BST.

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 12/08/2024

Lightning strikes over the past 32 hours. ⚡️ Over 20000 lightning strikes!

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 12/08/2024

From left to right. 1. Convective rain associated with the cold front 2. Trough likely to become fairly active and bring a risk of thunderstorms into Scotland 3. Model failure to forecast such extensive shower development. Risk of thunderstorms with all of this; locally large hail possible.

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 11/08/2024

Destabilisation of the plume starting to take place. Main attention to the area outlined in black - some rapid developments currently taking place, a number of rounds of thunderstorms may be possible. Ahead of it, developments possible too, and behind it - associated with the cold front.

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 11/08/2024

Latest radar vs a couple of the latest hi-res models. Safe to say that these thundery showers weren't picked up on - perhaps a sign that the atmosphere is a bit more primed for thunderstorms tonight.

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 11/08/2024

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK VALID: Today, 11th August Interactive map: ukwxupdates.org [UPDATE 1] Please remember that thunderstorm forecasts are valid till 6am in the morning the following day, therefore only risk up to that time is shown. Thorough forecast at: www.instagram.com/p/C-iF5kAikgw/

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UK Weather Updates @ukwx.bsky.social · 11/08/2024

Hi guys! I've created a Bluesky account due to the ever deteriorating experience on X. I'm not sure how quickly this will gain attention, but X isn't as pleasing as it used to be. The same weather content that you see on X, will be posted here, so you won't be missing out!

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