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David Ucko

@ucko.bsky.social
494 followers 186 following 122 posts

Head of Net Assessment @ NATO, author, and retired academic, writing in personal capacity.

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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Though it may seem irrational for Putin to risk another war, much depends on his perception of the response and the effect on his options in Ukraine — and whether he thinks time is on his side. edition.cnn.com/2026/08/07/p...
edition.cnn.com
US intel assesses Putin could launch attack aimed at testing NATO unity | CNN Politics
Recent US intelligence assessments indicate Russian President Vladimir Putin could try to test NATO’s resolve by launching a limited attack on an allied country within the next few years, according to...
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Enjoyable interview with Daniel Altman on violent state landgrabs. Taking territory is still “in” but often at lower levels to avoid third-party intervention. shows.acast.com/revolution-i...
shows.acast.com
Dan Altman on Taking Territory | Revolution in Military Affairs
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Excellent critique of the jargon overload in military rhetoric. Though many terms mean very little, they’ve acquired a symbolic importance in conveying sophistication and relevance. cove.army.gov.au/article/curi...
cove.army.gov.au
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Iskander Rehman’s study of the Spanish Civil War (and its parallels w/ Ukraine) is great history—and it also reveals 3 key lessons: on learning from the battlefield, the need to manage escalation vs. authoritarians, and to view ‘local’ conflicts in their global context. hcss.nl/report/a-lit...
hcss.nl
“A Little World War”: Lessons From the Spanish Civil War for Contemporary Strategists - HCSS
A new HCSS guest paper by Dr. Iskander Rehman examines the war in Ukraine through the lens of an oft-cited but seldom explored analogy: the Spanish Civil War. It shows how protracted proxy wars often ...
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
Solid take on the role of missiles in contemporary conflict: yes, the proliferation of precision-guided munitions puts assets at risk, but 'contestation is not defeat'; it just means you have to adapt, practise and prepare. warontherocks.com/missiles-are...
warontherocks.com
Missiles Aren’t Strategy: Lessons From Iran for a Pacific Air War
Western airpower debates are increasingly driven by grim math. Analysts tally missile inventories, strike ranges, and sortie-generation capacity against a
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
As NATO builds up its deep strike capability, this framework by Fabian Hoffmann sheds valuable light on different targeting strategies, their underlying logic and also their limitations. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
The strategic-level effects of long-range strike weapons: A framework for analysis
Can long-range strike weapons (LRS) create strategic-level effects? Despite extensive debate about the impact of LRS on contemporary warfare, the question of how such weapons can create strategic-l...
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 26/04/2026
Operation Spiderweb (Ukraine’s devastating drone attacks on Russian air bases) was bold but hardly revolutionary. This is the new normal—and its good to see the US military prepare accordingly. Let’s hope the outcomes are as dramatic as suggested in the article. www.defenseone.com/threats/2026...
defenseone.com
The Pentagon replicated a Ukrainian-style drone attack in Florida. Now it’s changing its counter-drone strategy
Several things—from the players to the technology—set the exercise apart from previous experiments.
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Though the U.S. Army’s heel-to-toe brigade deployments to Europe show commitment (and help rehearse logistics) its costly and inefficient, this study says. Going back to permannt basing may make more sense. www.stripes.com/branches/arm...
stripes.com
Army tank unit rotations to Europe wearing down the force, study says
The Army’s decadelong practice of rotating armored brigades through Europe is eroding combat readiness and straining budgets, according to a new study.
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
Good on Russia's apparent efforts to intercept Allied space communications. The recommendation for counter-space capabilities to defend these assets is worthy of further exploration. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
rand.org
How Russia Is Intercepting Communications from European Satellites
Russia has been secretly stalking European spacecraft since its invasion of Ukraine in 2014. What can Europe do about it?
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Jeff Michaels’ insightful article on the (very limited) impact of country experts in foreign policy. The Vietnam War is the focus here, but what is described seems applicable to other cases. Rather than a shortage of experts, the issue was a lack of consultation. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
If only we understood them better: country experts and the American War in Vietnam
In his 1995 memoir, former US Secretary of Defense Robert S. McNamara argued one reason why the US lost in Vietnam was insufficient country expertise. This claim generated considerable controversy,...
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
A European theory of victory for Ukraine, driven by 5 conditions to compel a Russian change in strategy. Each has its own associated efforts and all are feasible if we actually want to see Ukraine survive and succeed. (Notably, it doesn’t need to be just a European strategy.) hcss.nl/report/a-eur...
hcss.nl
A European Theory of Victory: Compelling Russia to End the War in Ukraine - HCSS
Europe lacks a shared theory of victory in Ukraine - and that absence is now shaping the war’s outcome. As long as Europe fails to define its own end state, others will shape the outcome - in Moscow, ...
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
RUSI has an excellent primer on Russia's commissioning of sabotage, surveillance and subversion across EU, often using disposable agents recruited for one-off jobs via social media. The challenges of attribution and follow-up are significant, but not insurmountable. www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
rusi.org
Responding to Russian Sabotage Financing
Financing is an important yet overlooked element of Russian sabotage in Europe: it can act as both a facilitator and a tool of response.
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
The Ukraine War has eroded past norms about not striking into Russia in case of war, but the demands of intra-war deterrence remain formidable - and require attention before rather than in the midst of crisis. Interesting treatment by Lukas Milevski. journals.lka.lt/journal/lasr...
journals.lka.lt
Revisiting the Idea of Sanctuary Russia | Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review | Generolo Jono Žemaičio Lietuvos karo akademija
Over the past ten years, Western defence analysts have assumed that, in any hypothetical war, Russia would be substantially, if not entirely, a sanctuary from NATO operations and even attacks. Russia’...
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
While I am no fan of DoD’s new Irregular Warfare definition, this discussion of its recent IW Directive provides crucial context and raises the right questions. I do wonder about DoD’s ability to folllow through... open.spotify.com/episode/1VtO...
open.spotify.com
Codifying Irregular Warfare—Inside the Pentagon’s new DoD Instruction 3000.07
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
This thought-provoking piece challenges common presumptions about strategic depth—particularly as concerns the Baltics. Lukas Milevski argues an invading military would move far slower than presumed due to sparse infrastructure, difficult terrain and the effects of contestation. lnkd.in/eHpAUaTH
tandfonline.com
Rethinking strategic depth in the Baltic States
It is a truism in defence analysis that the Baltic States lack strategic depth, giving the impression that strategic depth is immutable. Such spatial fatalism weakens strategic thinking by eliding ...
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
I’m looking forward to an opportunity to discuss the topic of my recent book (The Insurgent’s Dilemma) in the context of evolving counterterrorism. Registration for this virtual event is open to all.
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
With the US military striking another alleged drug boat, can isolated hits effectively counter organized crime? My recent book (w/ Tom Marks) urges a strategic approach and lays out a framework for how to analyze the problem and craft a response. digitalcommons.ndu.edu/strategic-mo...
digitalcommons.ndu.edu
A Framework for Countering Organized Crime
States continue to struggle in their efforts to counter organized crime. Despite states having scored successes at the operational level, organized crime has proven too adaptable and too resilient to ...
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 21/10/2025
From 2023, but Cdr Spansvoll does a great job mapping out the informational, political and military LoE of Russia’s destabilization campaign vs Norway. The implication is very much that we need a campaign to counter a campaign—and that’s still v. relevant today. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Studying Moscow’s Coercive Campaign Against Norway
Norway’s geopolitical position as both a neighbour of Russia and a member of NATO places it at the forefront of Moscow’s self-assertive and aggressive foreign and security policy. However, Norway’s...
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 16/10/2025
Given events in Israel/Gaza, I revisited my Dec23 assessment of who might prevail. Two years on, my sense is "plus ça change, plus ça reste la même chose" but also that all now hinges on the political consolidation of the peace deal—arguably the hardest bit. irregularwarfare.org/articles/the...
irregularwarfare.org
Theories of Victory: Israel, Hamas, and the Meaning of Success in Irregular Warfare
Two months in, what does the war between Israel and Hamas tell us about victory and defeat in irregular warfare? There is no difficulty in identifying those who have lost the most through this conflic...
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 16/10/2025
Despite an abstruse style, this is insightful on the need to adapt tactical-level logistics toward a more distributed (and less targetable) “push” system. Obviously nature of adversary matters and the caution about unsustainability warrants further thought. thecxfile.substack.com/p/contested-...
thecxfile.substack.com
Contested Logistics: Restructuring Battalion Logistics to Combat Peer Threats
by First Lieutenant Brendan Sanders
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 13/10/2025
Glad to see David Spencer‘s review of my book on the future of insurgency featured in RealClearDefense. He does a great job applying his own expertise to the argument I tried to advance. www.realcleardefense.com/2025/10/13/t...
realcleardefense.com
The Insurgent’s Dilemma: A Struggle to Prevail
David E. Spencer’s review of The Insurgent’s Dilemma highlights David Ucko’s nuanced analysis of the strategic challenges insurgent movements face in balancing military efficacy with
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 12/10/2025
Informative podcast with Samuel Bendett on tech adaptation in the Russia-Ukraine war. Covers integration of commercial technology, the role of volunteers and innovators in society, and the crucial need to adapt—and adapt again—to a constantly changing battlefield. open.spotify.com/episode/3fG4...
open.spotify.com
The Military Technological Arms Race in Ukraine
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
Insightful analysis of Russia’s breaking point by Ben Connable. Despite a record of sacrifice and fatalism, history suggests key vulnerabilities that are also in play for Russia today. As Ben also notes, much will also depends on our own resolve. warontherocks.com/2024/09/russ...
warontherocks.com
Russians Do Break: Historical and Cultural Context for a Prospective Ukrainian Victory
For major wars like the one being fought between Russia and Ukraine, the military, the people, and the state interact with one another to constitute a
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
SITREP from Colombia: tremendous economic potential, long tradition of democracy and yet struggling as always with security and governance beyond the big cities. On that front, matters have worsened since the FARC peace deal. economist.com/the-americas...
economist.com
Is Colombia at the “gates of hell”?
Opposing candidates in next year’s presidential election hold wildly divergent views of their country
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 22/09/2025
Good to see Moldova taking proactive measures to counter Russian disinformation and agitation. www.euronews.com/2025/09/22/m...
euronews.com
Moldova detains 74 over alleged Russian plot to stir up unrest
Online disinformation aimed at discrediting Moldova's pro-European government is ramping up ahead of the crunch parliamentary elections on 28 September.
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 04/09/2025
Perhaps living in Brussels made me particularly interested in this Rest is History series on the invasion of Belgium in 1914. Educational and enthralling, this is also relevant to the war in Ukraine and the prospect of further conflict in Europe in years to come. podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/t...
podcasts.apple.com
The First World War: The Invasion of Belgium (Part 1)
Podcast Episode · The Rest Is History · 24/08/2025 · 56m
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 19/07/2025
Austin Long provides important clarity on the Able Archer nuclear “non-crisis” of 1983. Held by some as a whisker away from Armageddon, the moment illustrates instead the need to understand both ourselves - the signals we send - and our enemy. strategicsimplicity.substack.com/p/able-arche...
strategicsimplicity.substack.com
Able Archer 83 (Re)-revisited
Reflections on a Complex Non-crisis
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 18/07/2025
Drawing on his experience with FARC, David Spencer has penned a superb review of my book 'The Insurgent's Dilemma', exploring the innovations in insurgent strategy and response options that the book covers. Many thanks. digitalcommons.ndu.edu/cgi/viewcont... @hurstpublishers.bsky.social
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
Podcast: @markgaleotti.bsky.social dissects how a seemingly mundane counter-gang arrest in a provincial Russian capital has escalated the fall-out between Moscow and Baku - and there may be more to come… inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com
In Moscow's Shadows 207: What Is Going On Between Baku and Moscow? - In Moscow's Shadows
In one corner, Azerbaijan's Ilhan Aliev, in the other, Russia's Vladimir Putin, two autocrats locked in an increasingly acrimonious political conflict sparked by, of all things, the arrest of some gan...
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
NOW OUT: A Framework for Countering Organized Crime: Strategy, Planning, and the Lessons of Irregular Warfare, by David H. Ucko and Thomas A Marks (NDU Press). Available in full at: ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/N...
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
Excellent discussion of Europe’s security and defence landscape with @edarnold.bsky.social, RUSI, via the great Modern War Institute at West Point podcast. Very relevant to #NATO. open.spotify.com/episode/7MSk...
open.spotify.com
A Survey of Europe's Defense and Security Landscape
Modern War Institute · Episode
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 06/05/2025
يا للروعة I’m now available in Arabic, thanks to the Saudi National Defense University. They have translated our “Crafting Strategy for Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Analysis and Action” (w/ Tom Marks, NDU Press)! I’m hopeful this will further extend the impact of this practioner’s toolkit.
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 06/05/2025
Excellent news. Less excellent: “In total, the EU spent an estimated €23 billion on Russian fossil fuels in 2024, exceeding the military support provided to Ukraine.” www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...
euronews.com
EU sets 2027 as deadline to phase out all Russian fuels, including LNG
Imports of Russian oil, gas and nuclear materials must stop by 2027 at the very latest, Brussels has proposed in a new ambitious strategy. #EuropeNews
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
Glad to announce that my latest work, “A Framework for Countering Organized Crime: Strategy, Planning and the Lessons of Irregular Warfare,” now has a cover. Co-authored with Tom Marks, it presents organized crime as an IW problem and proposes a framework to help with analysis and response.
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
Good reporting on Iran’s use of criminal groups to exert influence abroad, specifically in Europe. The tactic is old; our response is… getting better. Much like Russia’s subversion, the problem isn’t just the singular attack but the broader strategy. newlinesmag.com/spotlight/ho....
newlinesmag.com
How Iran Is Weaponizing Europe’s Criminal Underworld
Tehran is turning violent networks like Sweden’s Foxtrot and Ireland’s Kinahan cartel into tools of covert statecraft
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 02/04/2025
Very meaningful for me to contribute to this Festschrift for Christopher Coker, my mentor and friend for many years who sadly passed in 2023. www.hurstpublishers.com/book/coker-o...
hurstpublishers.com
Coker on War | Hurst Publishers
A homage to the late, great scholar of war, exploring his considerable legacy and engaging with questions of conflict and strategy in the same spirit.
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 02/04/2025
Effective speech by Mark Rutte on the NATO today and tomorrow: a stronger, fairer and more lethal Alliance. This is a potent message to those who wonder about NATO and the commitment to trans-Atlantic security. www.nato.int/cps/en/natoh...
nato.int
Speech by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte followed by moderated discussion at the Warsaw School of Economics
(As delivered)
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
Job opening: A crucial opportunity to lead NATO defence policy and planning at a crucial time for the Alliance (…and you get to be my boss!) www.globaljobs.org/jobs/46638-b...
globaljobs.org
Assistant Secretary General Defence Policy and Planning job in Brussels, Belgium
Assistant Secretary General Defence Policy and Planning job in Brussels, Belgium
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
Gavin Esler interviews Klaus Dodds on Arctic geopolitics. Insightful and informed discussion. open.spotify.com/episode/65CW...
open.spotify.com
Trump’s Greenland grab – A great power contest in the Arctic?
This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler · Episode
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
Insightful podcast with Stephen Kotkin that will probably anger both fans and detractors of America’s recent shifts on Ukraine—and the world. That in itself makes it worth a listen. open.spotify.com/episode/4r61...
open.spotify.com
Ep 180: Stephen Kotkin on Endgames in Ukraine
School of War · Episode
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
Insightful book review of my “The Insurgent’s Dilemma” by Maj. Travis Peet for the Australian Army Research Centre. Captures the state equivalents of the non-state strategies I explore—a key area of convergence. Many thanks. researchcentre.army.gov.au/library/aust... @hurstpublishers.bsky.social
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
TX Hammes offers compellling take on the need to adapt for modern warfare. As Hammes has long argued, and as Ukraine bears out, it’s time to move from the “few and exquisite” capabilities to the “small, smart, and many”. www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-seri...
atlanticcouncil.org
Small, smart, many and cheaper: Competitive adaptation in modern warfare
T.X. Hammes reflects on the growing role of cheap and adaptable technologies in fighting the wars of tomorrow.
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 17/02/2025
@anneapplebaum.bsky.social on the deliberate traumatization of the federal workforce. The US is moving from a civil service to a patronage system of fealty and loyalty tests. The effect is both insulting and injurious. www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...
theatlantic.com
There’s a Term for What Trump and Musk Are Doing
How regime change happens in America
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 08/02/2025
Having worked for the US federal government for several years, it angers and saddens me to see the hateful treatment of many fine workers—people who have devoted their lives to US interests and values.
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Reposted by David Ucko
Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 06/02/2025
The Trump Administration's attempts to dismantle USAID touches the lives of American public servants & millions of people abroad who depend on it for health services, education, & shelter. Tom Carothers explores the gravity & uncertainty of the situation: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
carnegieendowment.org
The Heartless Upheaval of American Foreign Aid
Thousands of Americans have had their lives overturned and millions abroad will suffer from the closure of USAID.
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
Krepinevich's net assessment of US, RUS & PRC strategic forces—nuclear & non-nuclear. In contrast with Cold War, these products must now account for multipolar dynamics and great uncertainty. Many crucial findings in here that should inform defense planning and policy. www.hudson.org/defense-stra...
hudson.org
Beyond the Nuclear Balance: A Strategic Forces Net Assessment
View PDF of executive summaryView PDF of full report Executive Summary
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 29/01/2025
Effective commentary on Russia’s “undeclared war against the West.” The welcome mention of Georgia denonstrates the potency of the attack. rusi.org/explore-our-...
rusi.org
The Components of Russia’s Undeclared War Against the West
Russia’s undeclared war against the West is intensifying, leveraging fear, destabilisation and covert operations to undermine NATO unity and Western resilience.
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 27/01/2025
Insightful podcast by @markgaleotti.bsky.social on the UK-Ukrainian ‘One Hundred Years Partnership Agreement', and - indirectly - what it says about the larger challenges and opportunities for supporting Kyiv. inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com
In Moscow's Shadows 184: One Hundred Years of Companionship? - In Moscow's Shadows
The UK has signed a 'One Hundred Years Partnership Agreement' with Ukraine -- what's really involved under this grandiose title, and what does it show us about the wider challenges (and some missed op...
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 12/01/2025
The targeting of children and schools to compel socio-political assimilation. Sadly quite ‘effective’. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
nytimes.com
How China is Erasing Tibetan Culture, One Child at a Time (Gift Article)
Across China’s west, the Communist Party is placing children in boarding schools to assimilate a generation of Tibetans into the national mainstream and mold them into loyal citizens.
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David Ucko @ucko.bsky.social · 09/01/2025
As several experiences in state-building bear out, building a political order is far more complex than arming a proxy, not least when in a fraught regional environment such as Syria’s. Will past failures inform this effort? www.businessinsider.com/turkey-influ...
businessinsider.com
Turkey's offer to rebuild the Syria military is an opening to displace Russian and Iranian power
Syria's new government likely needs arms to solidify its hold on power. That's an opening for its Turkish backers.
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