iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Man, if I made healthy choices like that my life would be very different.

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Nothing is wrong, I just spend a lot of time on this app getting into arguments with unhinged people and it's just not worth it and let's be honest, that's not going to change.

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I may leave behind a couple things that I worked hard on and I hope will help people, we'll see if I can get it set up

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Yes, just forcing myself to make better choices.

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Away @tznkai.bsky.social · 24/01/2026

I am going to miss a lot of you and I hope some of you will miss me for a little but we are as dust in the wind.

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What problem does it solve?

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Away @tznkai.bsky.social · 10/11/2025

Nah, it's fine, they quoted me to criticize me and then it disappeared so I was aware and I assume they just wanted to drop it after taking a shot.

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Away @tznkai.bsky.social · 10/11/2025

I didn't realize the former mutual had blocked me over this, which, okay I guess.

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Away @tznkai.bsky.social · 02/11/2025

Have you seen the shit people are into

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Away @tznkai.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

I think you make an excellent point.

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Away @tznkai.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

A vague nefarious 'them' perhaps, you know, the bankers.

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Away @tznkai.bsky.social · 25/10/2025

Watch out! Hidden traps in Social Security

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Away @tznkai.bsky.social · 21/10/2025

This is the best I have to ease you into it

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Away @tznkai.bsky.social · 21/10/2025

Democratic Primary for Senator of Maine

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Away @tznkai.bsky.social · 21/10/2025

UHC HATES this one weird trick (adverse selection)

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Away @tznkai.bsky.social · 18/10/2025

There's a whole meta cluster of socially inappropriate partner that is unexamined which is annoying considering how important society genuinely is to, well, humans

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Away @tznkai.bsky.social · 18/10/2025

There's an embarrassment zone and a people as objects zone!

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Away @tznkai.bsky.social · 18/10/2025

yeah, it looks like it's missing cuckoldry and, uhhhh "raceplay" a term I hate, and I'm sorry to say that's quite relevant now

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Coda: there's a better solution than open enrollment periods that most people and all insurance companies would like better: mandatory enrollment. (an NHS is functionally mandatory enrollment as well). But look what happened when we even wanted to tax people for not having insurance.

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So a key part of the Obamacare deal with insurers is that you can't just wait until the last minute, (barring being willing to uproot your whole life) you have to sign up before the plan year actually starts. The plan year for the individual market and many employers starts Jan 1. Go check yours.

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That sounds horrific tbh.

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So what a homo economicus might do is say "I'm generally healthy /except/ for a family history debilitating disease that has an obvious onset period. I will just not buy insurance until I start getting sick". Economists call this adverse selection. Health insurers call it a nightmare.

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Under Obamacare, health insurers can only determine your risk based on how old you are and whether you smoke. That's not a lot of data, so it's hard to accurately gauge your risk. Plus, you know your risks, like whether you have a family history of heart disease or cancer or whatever.

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Insurers aren't nearly that good at predicting the future. But what they are pretty good at is predicting the future in aggregate. If they get enough people /like/ you, they can charge the whole pool a bit less than the the claims you will all make in aggregate, and make money that way.

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The policy driver behind this is a simple relationship between insurers, risk, and time. Basically, if insurers can accurately figure out how expensive you will be in a benefits period (a year) they can charge you a premium for you slightly less than that and make money investing.

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Qualifying life event (QLE) - Glossary

You can also buy into an insurance plan outside of open enrollment, but not whenever you feel like it. Instead, you have to have a qualifying life event: moving, new job, gaining a spouse, losing a spouse, losing access to other coverage, and a few other things.

healthcare.gov

Learn about qualifying life events by reviewing the definition in the HealthCare.gov Glossary.

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Away @tznkai.bsky.social · 08/10/2025

Thanks to Obamacare health insurers can no longer refuse to sell you health insurance nor deny coverage for your illnesses discovered in the 2-3 years before you got insurance. But you can't wait until you're super sick to buy insurance. You have to buy in during open enrollment. Here's how to pick.

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I have bad news for you about their immigration policies

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It's actually more complicated like this, just ask a finance professional, but I think this is good enough for normie intuition. "what do I think the company will be worth in the future divided by shares". I especially want to push people away from full stock price nihilism.

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The hidden messages in stock prices!

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Okay, I think I understand where you're going with this.

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And let's say that you give the $100 to the kid anyway, and the business is fine but the line stays flat (don't make me talk about inflation) and in five years you want to sell your share. How much should your share be worth now compared to the day you invested it? What would you pay for another?

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I'm trying to understand the distinction you're trying to draw here, because if me and 1M of my closest friends buy 1M/1M of I dunno, Costco shares and there's one share class, we can appoint the board and order them to liquidate the company or whatever the hell else we want.

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AFAICT the problem there was mostly that the company was losing money and they would have gotten nothing at liquidation anyway.

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If that kid sells the same amount of lemonade for the same amount of money every year and never issues a dividend, is that a good investment? Or are you just going to stick the money in the bank and get your FDIC insured 3.5% return on investment?

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An imperfect analogy but useful intuition alignment here is to think of an $100 that you pick up off the street and decide to save. You don't want anything fancy out of it, you just want it to hold its value when you need it in the future, a kid asks you to invest it in their lemonade stand.

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Please don't make me do a sidebar on share classes

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That in interaction of valuation and share price is, I think, what @rivertam.bsky.social was describing as "just math". A company that has a stable revenue and dividend schedule, and investors think will continue to, will have a stable share price. You can buy those, they exist.

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Because what we're talking about is a share. As in, fractional ownership of a company. So The confidence of investors in the company's ability to return their investment in the future, dividends inclusive, adjusted for risk, i.e., it's value, is just the numerator. Total shares is the denominator.

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Where I think normies, and I mean like, not-finance professionals / corporate lawyers and related nerds, get confused is they think that stock prices are a pure vote of confidence by investors in the company. To repurpose some famous, horrifying words, "they like the stock". But that's not true.

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* I think I read somewhere that this was a because a combination of underperforming gigantic congomerates like GE and the rise of broad market index funds from companies like Vanguard, meaning there was no reason for a broad portfolio company to exist anymore.

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