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Andrew Lyons

@twisterkid34.bsky.social
1.9K followers 612 following 259 posts

Forecaster. Storm and sky enthusiast. Occasional adult. forecast.twodogswx.net github.com/adlyons For Pics & Youtube.com/twisterkidmedia For tornado videos Bad opinions are my own.

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Andrew Lyons
Kelton Halbert @stormscale.io · 24/09/2026
I added a CIG1 for hail in the 20Z update today. I am just barely skirting in with those lines, I probably should’ve expanded further north a bit. But, it looks like the environment had just enough juice to **potentially** produce 2” hail. MESH is not a hail observation, but it’s something!
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Reposted by Andrew Lyons
Kelton Halbert @stormscale.io · 24/09/2026
VERIFI-CATION!
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Reposted by Andrew Lyons
Kelton Halbert @stormscale.io · 23/09/2026
Forgot to post this yesterday, but a decade ago @twisterkid34.bsky.social and I would talk about working at SPC one day. Pretty cool moment to train on the outlook update with him and issue a joint convective outlook.
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Reposted by Andrew Lyons
Kelton Halbert @stormscale.io · 11/09/2026
I’ve been trying to formulate opinions about this for a while. I still don’t know how to communicate what I am experiencing, thinking, & feeling. Lot’s of nuance. The truth is LLM coding tools are too efficient & effective to be ignored anymore. Yes they’re flawed, but so is human intelligence.
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Im glad that agentic coding tools are making it easier for folks to realize ideas and make cool tools. However, the amount of slop with the exact same dark mode color scheme, layouts, and weird data visualization is low key infuriating.
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Some NWS people need to learn what rage and engagement bait are...
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Trying to post here more. Some life updates. Got married in June! Went to Antigua 🇦🇬 in July! Been a fun summer so far and ill have some professional news coming soon!
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Alot of discourse about the likely significant tornado in WI earlier. One thing I havent seen mentioned was the potential impact of a likely N-S boundary from the precceding storms. These were not well forecast and their impact is difficult to know but i think they played a role. (loop below)
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
I do not know futbol as well as I know football, but I know when I see a spread offense winning on the perimeter with speed and passing. Paraguay looks completely paralyzed in the middle of the pitch. Reacting late and flat footed to attacks and throughs from all sides.
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Reposted by Andrew Lyons
Kelton Halbert @stormscale.io · 28/05/2026
Today, I hit a pretty big life moment and got engaged to my best friend and favorite person in the world. Got so nervous that I accidentally placed myself behind the railing. Oh well 🙃😂. Celebrated with a lovely picnic in Central Park!
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 25/04/2026
Today looks fun, at my house.
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Reposted by Andrew Lyons
Patrick Marsh @pmarshwx.com · 06/03/2026
Today is SPC's first explicit forecast of significant tornadoes possible (CIG1) in a tornado probability less than 10%. Based on radar data and environment a significant tornado may have occurred in parts of that forecast area. SPC could not have explicitly forecast this kind of scenario previously.
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Reposted by Andrew Lyons
National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 27/02/2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center's severe weather outlooks will be changing slightly next week. Meteorologists Evan Bentley and Liz Leitman, our experts at SPC, provide an update about the new conditional intensity outlook.
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
The way this snatch and grab went it may not even be real, which would just be peak trump. Non zero chance they convinced Maduro to go on his own with help.
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
Shoutout to the No War president for starting a new war for "very legitimate" reasons. Who could have possibly seen this coming!? /s
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 01/01/2026
My 3 year old ponderosa lemon tree made its first fruit and wow it was a chonker! 15 Oz! We turned it into a nice cocktail for new years.
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Reposted by Andrew Lyons
Kelton Halbert @stormscale.io · 13/11/2025
Maybe all of the people in leadership sending emails about how thankful they are for us showing up should do something about the fact we were all denied bonuses this year.
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
Time lapse from my Lumix also turned out pretty well for minimal setup
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
Last night still doesn't feel real. Visible aurora from 35° N over my backyard city lights. Insane!
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
I was going to wait until the shutdown was over but the cat is out if the bag. My first journal article is now live! Convective Mode Classification and Distribution of Contiguous United States Tornado Events from 2003–2023 in: Weather and Forecasting - Ahead of print share.google/M3ty4pVs5Tld...
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Convective Mode Classification and Distribution of Contiguous United States Tornado Events from 2003–2023
Abstract Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms represent a significant threat to life and property in the United States annually. Approximately one thousand tornadoes, two-hundred being significant (F/EF-2+), are documented on average every year. Using archived radar and Storm Data storm report information, 21 912 tornado grid hours were manually analyzed for convective mode from the years 2003–2023. This dataset builds upon prior work by Smith et al. (2012) (hereafter S12) by more than doubling the sample size to produce a robust, multidecadal climatology of tornadoes by convective mode. Comparisons were made between tornado samples spanning 2003–2011 and 2012–2023 to assess changes in the frequency and spatial occurrence of tornadoes. Convective mode characterization consisted of a subjective analysis of WSR-88D imagery into three categories: 1) supercell, 2) quasi–linear convective system (QLCS), and 3) disorganized. Spatial climatologies of the different modes were performed and Kernel Density Estimate plots of events per decade were generated as in S12. The highest climatological frequency for tornadic supercells is reaffirmed to extend from KS and OK east-southeastward to MS and AL, while QLCS tornadoes are more frequent from the northern Gulf Coast states into the lower Ohio River Valley. Comparing the new sample to the original, QLCS tornado relative frequency increased by over 100%. Substantial variation in QLCS tornado occurrence may be due to non-meteorological factors such as dual polarization radar and different observing/reporting practices.
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 26/10/2025
Im 7 days behind because mids. Heres 4 #shutdown sammys.
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 18/10/2025
#shutdown sammy and #restorefunding ralphie for days 16 17 and 18 of ?? Im on mids so my captions are creatively limited but the dogs are cute.
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 16/10/2025
#shutdown sammy day 15 of ?? Sammy is perplexed by the lack of ball and a functional government. But mostly ball.
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
#shutdown sammy and #restorefunding ralphie days 13 and 14 of ?? I just like this one because of the tounges.
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 13/10/2025
#shutdown sammy #restorefunding ralphie day 11 and 12 of ?? Pups in the pool. Where's our pool of money?
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 12/10/2025
#shutdown Sammy day 10 of ?? I feel the same way about football and the current state of affairs as Sammy does about the lack of walks.
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
#shutdown Sammy and #restorefunding Ralphie for days 8 and 9 of ?? The dogs and I took a nice walk to get our minds off silly appropriations. They attempted to investigate the local creek turtles.
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
#shutdown sammy day 7 of ?? One week with no funding. Here is an artists rendition of a displeased Sammy.
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
#shutdown sammy day 6 of ?? Sammy is fishing for some funding.
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
#Shutdown sammy and #restorefunding ralphie for days 4 and 5 of ?? Forgot to post yesterday so here's a twofur.
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Kelton Halbert @stormscale.io · 03/10/2025
Shutdown Meira, Day 3 / ?? Gotta keep the wheat from waving too vigorously.
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 04/10/2025
A sleepy #shutdown Sammy day 3 of ?? Im on mids so feeling the tired too pup.
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Reposted by Andrew Lyons
Kelton Halbert @stormscale.io · 02/10/2025
Shutdown Meira, Day 2 / ?? Essential government workers still have to work without pay. Meira is taking her job seriously, making sure the atmosphere behaves and stays convectively stable through dutiful Skew-T/Log-P thermodynamic analysis. (Don’t tell the government but I’m paying her in treats)
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
#Shutdown Sammy day 2 of ?? She was excited while I was cooking fajitas. Im not excited about the continuing lapse of appropriations.
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
#shutdown sammy Day 1 of ?? Heres a pic of my dog for every day of the shutdown.
My German Shepard mix sammy laying a puddle at the park. She's a good dog.
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Reposted by Andrew Lyons
Kelton Halbert @stormscale.io · 24/09/2025
"Thanks for all the hard work surviving this year and doing your jobs with excellence, despite the chaos. Oh, performance bonuses? lol no."
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
In case anyone was wondering what's new for Federal Employees ahead of the looming shutdown, we just found out our yearly performance bonuses have been rescinded because of the chaos around performance plan quotas. Because kicking us while we are down and about to be broke wasnt enough!
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 13/09/2025
#Sooners looking very clean and playing assignment sound football this morning. Love it!
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Kelton Halbert @stormscale.io · 11/09/2025
In addition to these already posted positions, there *should* be two more coming soon: Mesoscale Assistant Forecaster Fire Wx Senior Development Meteorologist
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Tim Supinie @plustssn.autumnsky.us · 11/09/2025
We're also hiring two fire weather positions: another WCM and a lead foreacster. If you're interested in fire weather and want to work for SPC, go ahead and apply! Both positions close on Wednesday, Sep 24. Fire WCM: www.usajobs.gov/job/845645900 Fire Lead: www.usajobs.gov/job/845659700
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Tim Supinie @plustssn.autumnsky.us · 11/09/2025
SPC is hiring a Warning Coordination Meteorologist (WCM) for the severe side. So if you've wanted to work for SPC as a WCM, here's your chance! Applications for this position close on Tuesday, Sep 23. Severe WCM: www.usajobs.gov/job/845565600
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Hunter Hurley @hunterhurleywx.bsky.social · 11/08/2025
Hey all! I've been Co-Developing this project with @twisterkid34.bsky.social for about a month now, and we've made some changes to how the interface works, and also included a 'How to Report' section. (1/3)
reportbuddy.org
Report Buddy V0.8
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Reposted by Andrew Lyons
Hunter Hurley @hunterhurleywx.bsky.social · 11/08/2025
We would love to receive feedback on what we can improve on, and what we can change to better help spotters send accurate reports! (3/3)
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Reposted by Andrew Lyons
Hunter Hurley @hunterhurleywx.bsky.social · 11/08/2025
We also have a web-domain now! -- reportbuddy.org -- Best accessible on Google Chrome and Fire Fox on mobile devices, you can also bookmark it onto your home screen for easy access. We will be working on compatibility with Safari soon, and eventually create an app download for smoother use. (2/3)
reportbuddy.org
Report Buddy V0.8
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 11/08/2025
Thanks to Hunter for coauthoring this project! I've made the github repo public now github.com/adlyons Looking forward to working on this with Hunter and others in the future! We hope to expand to here as nws offices migrate over as well.
github.com
adlyons - Overview
adlyons has 9 repositories available. Follow their code on GitHub.
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Reposted by Andrew Lyons
Kelton Halbert @stormscale.io · 30/07/2025
Actually, it’s only a Derecho if it comes from the Derecho region of Central Iowa. Otherwise it’s just a sparkling squall line.
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
Sounds great until we expand social media presence with zero additional tools and staff to post and monitor... nws needs tools to crosspost and monitor multiple feeds at once.
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 13/07/2025
I challenged myself to build a web app that you can use to tag a severe report and automatically generate a message to send the info to the proper NWS office. For now its optimized for X but hopefully can be used here in the future. For those curious its hosted: adlyons.github.io/report_buddy...
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Andrew Lyons @twisterkid34.bsky.social · 06/07/2025
SO to me: "what's up?" Me: "nuance and critical thinking are dead nothing new."
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Kelton Halbert @stormscale.io · 06/07/2025
The thing with catastrophic disasters like the mass casualties from flooding in Texas is that they are always the result of cascading critical failures. The passing the blame to the forecast not being good enough is just guilty conscience. Those little girls could’ve been saved and they know it.
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