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Troy Teslike

@troyteslike.bsky.social
1.7K followers 4 following 255 posts

Tesla Delivery Estimates: Data-driven & free. Early access on Patreon. My average error rate is 1.4% for Tesla's production and 3.0% for deliveries.

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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 02/10/2025
Actual numbers are in: Tesla delivered 497,099 cars in Q3. My estimate was 3.2% too low, while the analyst consensus missed by 10.9%. My Estimate: 481,000 My Error (units): -16,099 My Error (%): -3.2% Analyst Consensus: 443,079 Consensus Error (units): -54,020 Consensus Error (%): -10.9%
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
Tesla is expected to release its Q3 2025 production and delivery numbers tomorrow. When markets are open, as they will be tomorrow, the numbers are released at around 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 30/09/2025
Hi everyone, here are the final Tesla delivery estimates for Q3 2025. For reference, deliveries were 462,890 units in Q3 2024. • My estimate: 481,000 • Analyst consensus: 443,079 (from Tesla’s survey of 25 analysts, known as the Company-Compiled Consensus, published on Sep 26)
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 27/09/2025
See bsky.app/profile/troy...
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 30/08/2025
Yes, but I can’t access the direct messages feature anymore. This applies to all users in the UK. I’ll probably use Bluesky much less from now on, since there’s little reason to build up a following here without DMs.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
I have this data until 7 Jun 2025, but the chart ends at the end of March 2025 because I post this content on Patreon and don't want to share too much information.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
OK. See bsky.app/profile/troy...
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
Hi everyone. Here’s my detailed calculation for Tesla's Q2 2025 earnings: Non-GAAP EPS: • My Estimate: $0.42 The last two columns show my estimate and the analyst consensus. The actual numbers will be released in a few hours.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
2/2 ... Q1 2025 that they sold for the same price as the Long Range AWD version (shown in blue). You can also see the gradual price cuts throughout Q1 2025, as Tesla cleared out the older Model Y Classic versions before launching the Juniper design refresh.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
1/2 Hi everyone. The chart shows Model Y sales prices in the US based on DMV data. Each dot represents a vehicle, and each color shows a different trim level. The most interesting part is that some Performance versions (shown in red) were so heavily discounted at the end of Q4 2024 and ...
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 12/07/2025
Hi everyone. The chart shows actual Tesla sales in Europe, based on vehicle registration data from 25 countries. In Q2 2025, Tesla sold 55,924 units, down 29% year-over-year from 78,417 units in Q2 2024. Tesla has been struggling with brand image issues caused by political controversy.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 04/07/2025
• $7,500 federal tax credit ends after Sep 30, 2025. • Regulatory credits in the US end tomorrow. The Big Beautiful Bill cancels both of them.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 04/07/2025
Check out Sawyer's explanation. I agree with his interpretation. I also looked into this topic using Perplexity AI. x.com/SawyerMerrit...
x.com
Sawyer Merritt on X: "I just spent hours reviewing the final version of Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” which he will sign into law in the coming days. There's a lot of important stuff related to EVs, renewable energy, and more. Here's everything you need to know: • $7,500 EV credit for new vehicles: https://t.co/CG49KzsQJQ" / X
I just spent hours reviewing the final version of Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” which he will sign into law in the coming days. There's a lot of important stuff related to EVs, renewable energy, and more. Here's everything you need to know: • $7,500 EV credit for new vehicles: https://t.co/CG49KzsQJQ
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
Tesla sells these credits at a discount compared to the fine, making them the cheaper option. The new bill reduces the fine to zero, removing the need to buy credits. As a result, Tesla’s US regulatory credits will become worthless, though they will continue to earn credits in Europe and China 2/2
congress.gov
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” will eliminate Tesla’s US regulatory credits, also known as ZEV credits. Under the current system, automakers failing to meet zero-emission vehicle quotas must either pay a fine or purchase credits from companies like Tesla, which generate excess credits. 1/2
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
The table on the left shows my error rate. The one on the right shows the analyst consensus. My error rate is still lower than the consensus, but the gap is narrowing. I need more accurate results going forward, which means understanding what went wrong and finding ways to improve it.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
For maximum transparency, here’s my delivery error rate versus the analyst consensus (based on Tesla’s survey, also known as the company-compiled consensus) over the past 16 quarters. Today’s result was my largest miss in the last four years.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
Tesla deliveries were down by 50,129 units in Q1 and 59,834 units in Q2 2025 year-over-year. Q3 will also be challenging, as last year’s Q3 was strong with 462,890 units delivered. However, Tesla may soon launch a stripped-down Model Y, which it hopes will improve sales.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
Tesla deliveries fell 13.5% year-over-year in Q2 2025, the largest decline in the company's history. This follows a 13.0% drop in Q1 2025. Still, the decline this quarter was smaller than many, including myself, had expected.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
This is my initial calculation for Tesla’s regional deliveries in Q2 2025. I’ll update the table as more registration data becomes available over the next few days.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
Both deliveries and production were much higher than I estimated. I was expecting a 19.8% year-over-year decline, but sales fell by only 13.5% compared to last year's Q2. Tesla Deliveries in Q2 2025: • My estimate: 356,000 • Analyst consensus: 385,086 • Actual: 384,122 • Q2 2024 deliveries: 443,956
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 30/06/2025
July 2, 2025, between 9:00 and 9:10 am Eastern Time.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 30/06/2025
Here are my final Tesla delivery estimates for this quarter. I’m aiming for a lower error rate than my 3.0% average over the last 12 quarters. Tesla Delivery Estimates for Q2 2025: • My estimate: 356,000 • Analyst consensus: 385,086 • Q2 2024 deliveries: 443,956
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 29/06/2025
2/2 However, Tesla continues to operate 35 stores across the country (source: www.tesla.com/findus/list/...), keeping SG&A costs high at a time when the company appears to be on track to report GAAP losses starting in Q1 2026.
tesla.com
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 29/06/2025
1/2 Tesla is struggling to adapt to the new reality of lower sales. For example, sales in Canada have dropped to nearly zero, largely due to political controversy (source: www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...).
tesla.com
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
Tesla doesn’t report Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X sales separately. Instead, it combines all three into a single number. That number was 23,640 units in Q4 2024 but fell to 12,881 units in Q1 2025 due to weak demand. Based on the latest data, the decline is expected to continue this quarter.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
Today's update on Patreon (patreon.com/posts/132143...) includes DMV VIN data up to June 25. I use it to estimate Tesla’s production. Over the last 12 quarters, my error rate has been 1.4% for production and 3.0% for deliveries. However, I’ll post my final estimates on June 30th here as well.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
In the first half of the year, Tesla sold • 345,088 cars in North America in 2023, and • 313,727 in 2024, a drop of 31,361 units. The decline continues in 2025, but this time, the drop will be much larger than 31,000 or even 40,000 units.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
Tesla's Global inventory increased from 77,000 at the end of Q4 2024 to 101,000 at the end of Q1 2025. A similar increase is expected this quarter, with production running higher than deliveries because of limited demand.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
The red line shows Tesla’s China sales this quarter based on weekly car insurance data. After 12 weeks, sales are lower than in Q1, when Tesla blamed the drop on the Model Y Juniper production changeover. Quarter-to-Date Sales (Weeks 1–12): • Q1 2025: 116,119 units • Q2 2025: 109,520 units
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
As I said, 1.6 million units doesn't look possible. Deliveries will be clearly below that.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
Based on the latest data, Tesla sales in Europe remain weak. The chart shows sales over the past few quarters, with Q1 2025 being very low, which Tesla blamed on the Model Y Juniper production changeover in March. However, Q2 shows no improvement over Q1.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 22/06/2025
Tesla will conduct a delivery survey with analysts. Typically, about 27 Tesla analysts take part in this survey. It’s the largest survey of its kind and is called the Company-Compiled Consensus. This was the previous one three months ago.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 22/06/2025
The numbers changed since my tweet below. 1.6 million Tesla deliveries this year no longer look possible. Analyst consensus is still too high for now, but it’s expected to come down over the next 8 days • My Estimate: Below 1.60M units • Analyst Consensus: 1.68M units • 2024 Deliveries: 1.79M units
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 21/06/2025
Tesla sales in Europe are performing poorly. Based on the latest data, sales in the first half of 2025 are expected to be down 35% YOY. Sales are down everywhere except Norway & Spain. Norway will be ~1,700 units above last year in the first half, but that’s small compared to the declines elsewhere
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
Tesla deliveries dropped just 1.1% in 2024. But this year, the decline is expected to be over 10%. Also, deliveries are expected to drop in all major regions, including North America, Europe, and China.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 25/05/2025
Yes, they are included. I'm assuming July 1st launch in China & Europe and October 1st launch in the US. Without that, the numbers would be even lower.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
Q1 2025 deliveries were terrible Q2 2025 deliveries are expected to be very bad Sure, you could call that an improvement, if you want.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
2/2 2025 Full-Year: Deliveries are expected to be between 1.5 million and 1.64 million units, down from 1,789,226 in 2024.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
1/2 Hi everyone. Here’s the current Tesla delivery outlook based on the data so far: Q2 2025: Deliveries are expected to be between 350,000 and 395,000 units, down from 443,956 in Q2 2024. I’ll tweet my final estimate on June 30, two days before Tesla reports the official numbers.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
5/5 Q2 2024 deliveries were 443,956 units. Subtracting 42,931 puts the threshold at 401,025 units for Q2. If Tesla delivers 401,025 units or fewer, it would signal a very bad result, suggesting they’re on track for a 10% decline in deliveries for the year.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
4/5 After Q1 2025, Tesla is already down 50,129 units. That leaves 128,794 units across the next three quarters, or about 42,931 units per quarter, to result in a 10% annual decline.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
3/5 What would be a very bad delivery result for Q2 2025? A 10% or greater drop in full-year deliveries would be considered a very bad outcome. Tesla delivered 1,789,226 units in 2024. A 10% decline would mean 1,610,303 units, or 178,923 fewer units.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
2/5 Since Q2 2024 deliveries were 443,956 units, adding 16,710 sets a target of 460,666 units for Q2. Achieving that number would be a strong result, but at this point, it doesn't look possible.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
1/5 What would be a good delivery result for Q2 2025? Tesla is currently 50,129 units behind last year after Q1. To close that gap over the remaining three quarters, they’d need to deliver 16,710 more units than last year in each quarter.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
2/2 Cybertruck helped limit the overall decline in the US to just 5.7%, but if we exclude the Cybertruck for a more apples-to-apples comparison with 2023, sales of Tesla’s other models actually fell by 11.4%. I expect this trend to continue in 2025, with even steeper declines in Tesla’s sales.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
1/2 In the US, Tesla’s sales fell by 5.7% in 2024, while the overall passenger vehicle market grew by 2.8% and other battery electric vehicles (BEVs) increased by 27.4%. In Europe, Tesla’s sales dropped 10.7%, while the broader market and other BEVs posted modest growth.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
The stripped-down Model Y won't increase unit sales much because of cannibalization. It might help a bit, but not nearly enough. It will hurt Tesla's premium brand image in China, causing long-term sales damage. Also, it's not truly a new model, and there is no other new model either.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 04/05/2025
I post regular updates on Patreon, so I won't go into too much detail, but deliveries are expected to decline by more than just a few percent this year.
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Troy Teslike @troyteslike.bsky.social · 04/05/2025
Tesla often responds to slowing demand with price cuts and promotions. As a result, deliveries in 2024 declined by just 1%, while automotive gross profit excluding regulatory credits dropped nearly 20%. I expect the same trend to continue this year, but with much steeper declines in both numbers.
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