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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 17h

🌀 Thursday video update: Hurricane #Isaias intensifying as it begins to turn toward the Gulf Coast www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uql...

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[Thursday] Hurricane Isaias Intensifying; Landfall Expected Friday Night

YouTube video by Tropical Tidbits

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

🌀 Wednesday video analysis of Tropical Storm #Isaias, expected to strike the Gulf Coast as a hurricane late Friday Please forgive my slightly ill voice. www.youtube.com/watch?v=9INW...

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[Wednesday] Isaias Forms; Expected to Strike Gulf Coast as a Hurricane

YouTube video by Tropical Tidbits

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

🌀 Tuesday video discussion on a new tropical storm likely to form and impact the Gulf Coast later this week. 🌀A range of scenarios remains possible as of this morning. Folks in the region should keep a close eye on the forecast and be prepared for potential hazards www.youtube.com/watch?v=WczA...

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[Tuesday] New Tropical Storm Likely to Form and Impact the Gulf Coast

YouTube video by Tropical Tidbits

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

🌀 Quick update on Tropical Storm #Edouard, strengthening as it approaches landfall in the border region of #Texas and #Louisiana. 🌀 Be safe and smart today if you're in the path of hazardous conditions, especially near the coastline. www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXdF...

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[Tuesday] Tropical Storm Edouard Strengthening as it Nears Landfall

YouTube video by Tropical Tidbits

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

🌀 Monday video update on the new storm developing in the Gulf which will impact portions of eastern #Texas and western #Louisiana on Tuesday and Wednesday. www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lZP...

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[Monday] New Storm Forming in the Gulf; will Impact Texas and Louisiana

YouTube video by Tropical Tidbits

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

🌀 Sunday afternoon video update on a new tropical disturbance in the Gulf expected to impact portions of #Texas and #Louisiana, and the remnants of Tropical Storm #Dolly near #PuertoRico www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAxn...

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[Sunday] New Tropical Disturbance Expected to Move Toward Northwest Gulf Coast

YouTube video by Tropical Tidbits

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

🌀 Tuesday video update on Tropical Storm #Bertha, making its approach toward the central Gulf Coast youtu.be/pfxxKyvHWgw

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[Tuesday] Tropical Storm Bertha Approaching the Central Gulf Coast

YouTube video by Tropical Tidbits

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

🌀 Monday video update: #TD2 expected to approach the central Gulf Coast as a tropical storm on Wednesday youtu.be/TYWvSUxmq7w

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[Monday] TD2 Expected to Approach Central Gulf Coast as a Tropical Storm

YouTube video by Tropical Tidbits

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Given that stiff vertical shear awaits TD2 near the central Gulf Coast, it could simply dissipate if it remains weak by then. Significant intensification prior to that point would increase the risk of TD2 surviving as a substantial storm and affecting areas like western #Louisiana & SE #Texas later.

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Things to watch for tonight/tomorrow: evidence of a step change in convective activity as dry air mixes out and a contracting of the max wind ring in future aircraft reconnaissance missions.

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Gradual pressure falls are being observed at Buoy 42036 at about 28.5N, 84.5W, indicating that slow organization likely continues.

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

#TD2 remains broad and weak for now, with dry air entrainment evident west of the circulation, clearly limiting the intensity and coverage of deep thunderstorms near the center of circulation.

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

🌀 Sunday video update on newly-formed Tropical Depression Two (#TD2), expected to impact the Gulf Coast this week. 🌀 There is some uncertainty in the forecast and exact impacts expected in Gulf states. Stay tuned to the NHC forecast this week for any changes and be prepared. youtu.be/65p0gFiVpTk

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[Sunday] New Storm Forms in the Gulf

YouTube video by Tropical Tidbits

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 18/07/2026

🌀 Saturday afternoon video discussion on the new tropical disturbance near #Florida (Invest #91L) 🌀 This system has a moderate chance to develop into a tropical cyclone over the weekend and early next week. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tqr3...

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[Saturday July 18] New Tropical Disturbance Near Florida

YouTube video by Tropical Tidbits

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 14/06/2026

🌀 Regardless, a period of heavy rains is expected to spread through southeast #Texas, #Louisiana, and other northern gulf coast states. The NWS Weather Prediction Center outlines a wide swath of slight to moderate risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding mid-week.

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 14/06/2026

🌀 Ensemble guidance outlines this scenario as a distinct but minority possibility, with most members either keeping the disturbance inland over Texas or otherwise failing to organize. The National Hurricane Center currently puts odds of storm development at 30%.

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 14/06/2026

🌀 The associated subtropical jet will impose westerly winds aloft, pushing thunderstorm activity offshore, possibly dragging the disturbance back over water off the Texas coastline. While the system would be sheared, time over water would open an opportunity for a brief tropical cyclone to form.

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 14/06/2026

🌀 There remains some risk of tropical development in the western Gulf this week. The disturbance that initially failed to develop and moved into #Mexico is currently inland, but will slowly migrate into south #Texas over the next couple of days as a weak cold front approaches from the north.

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 08/06/2026

Following up, we are seeing model consolidation toward less storm activity in the Gulf this week, w/ physics-based models backing off from earlier aggression. Remaining low risk is associated w/ the remnants of TS Cristina potentially crossing Central America into the Bay of Campeche this weekend

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 07/06/2026

Tropical Depression Two-E has formed just south of Guerrero, #Mexico. The storm is expected to quickly move inland on Monday, bringing heavy rains, flash flooding, and mudslide hazards to the region.

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 06/06/2026

The Eastern Pacific is waking up, with two tropical cyclones expected to develop near the coastlines of #Mexico and #CentralAmerica over the next couple days, bringing primarily heavy rainfall and flash flooding hazards to the region.

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

🧵(5/5) We probably need a couple more days to identify which scenario the forecast is trending towards. For now, a low-ish probability of tropical activity in the Gulf region in 7-10 days is in view, but no concrete threats exist yet.

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

🧵(4/5) Other models, notably most AI-based models, show a less amplified upper-level pattern with northwesterlies dominating the region. This would suppress moisture transport & the migration of the monsoonal vorticity pocket. The result is much less cyclone activity in the Gulf on these model runs.

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

🧵(3/5) However, much will depend on support from large-scale flow to the north. In some models, an amplified upper-level trough digs over the Gulf, dredging tropical moisture northward and assisting migration of the monsoon lobe into a position that facilitates cyclone formation over the Gulf.

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

🧵(2/5) The eastern lobe of the monsoon trough, perhaps even taking the form of a weak gyre, is expected to attempt to migrate northwestward into the western Caribbean or southern Gulf, a scenario which often creates potential for messy cyclones to develop and ultimately approach the Gulf coast.

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

🧵(1/5) Some possibility of tropical activity in the Gulf exists beginning late next week. The Central American monsoon is becoming active as multiple equatorial waves (MJO, Kelvin, Rossby) overlap next week near 90W longitude.

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 30/05/2026

🌀 The 2026 hurricane season officially begins on Monday. Here's my top-level discussion on what to expect throughout the season and over the next couple weeks. www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3l-...

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The 2026 Hurricane Season Begins

YouTube video by Tropical Tidbits

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 27/10/2025

🌀 Monday video update on catastrophic Category 5 Hurricane #Melissa, nearing its final approach to #Jamaica. Hoping everyone in the path finds shelter and stays safe. www.youtube.com/watch?v=avcz...

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[Monday] Extremely Dangerous Category 5 Hurricane Melissa Nearing Jamaica

YouTube video by Tropical Tidbits

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 25/10/2025

Saturday video update on Hurricane #Melissa, poised to rapidly intensify and directly strike #Jamaica, with life-threatening conditions also expected in #Hispaniola, #Cuba, and portions of the #Bahamas during the next several days. Everyone please stay safe. www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeUG...

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[Saturday] Melissa Becomes a Hurricane, Poised to Rapidly Intensify and Strike Jamaica

YouTube video by Tropical Tidbits

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 24/10/2025

🌀 Friday video update on Tropical Storm #Melissa, now beginning its intensification run toward hurricane status, and bringing life-threatening hazards to multiple Caribbean countries: www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Ucu...

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[Friday] Melissa Intensifying and Bringing Life-threatening Hazards to Caribbean Countries

YouTube video by Tropical Tidbits

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 20/10/2025

🌀 Monday video discussion on Invest #98L, expected to develop into a tropical storm in the Caribbean Sea this week and raise flooding risks in the region. www.youtube.com/watch?v=mLgo...

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[Monday] New Tropical Storm Expected to Form in Central Caribbean; Likely to Raise Flooding Risks

YouTube video by Tropical Tidbits

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 27/09/2025

🌀 Saturday video update on newly-formed Tropical Depression 9 (#TD9; to be named #Imelda later) and Major Hurricane #Humberto 🌀 TD9 is expected to bring hazardous weather to the #Bahamas and possibly eastern #Florida, #Georgia, #SouthCarolina, & #NorthCarolina. www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEt5...

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[Saturday] Tropical Depression 9 Forms near Cuba; Expected to Impact Bahamas and Southeastern US

YouTube video by Tropical Tidbits

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 26/09/2025

🌀 Friday (long!) video update on Hurricane #Humberto and Invest #94L (likely to develop and be named #Imelda) 🌀 While uncertainty in this complex forecast remains elevated, risk of life-threatening impacts to the southeastern US continues to increase. Have a plan! www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjDQ...

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[Friday] Humberto Strengthens; New Storm Expected to Form in Bahamas and Impact the Region

YouTube video by Tropical Tidbits

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 25/09/2025

🌀 Thursday video update on Tropical Storm #Humberto and Invest #94L (would be named #Imelda if it develops). 🌀 These two storms are raising risks to the #TurksAndCaicos, #Bahamas, southeastern US, and #Bermuda this weekend and next week, though uncertainty is high. www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPmM...

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[Thursday] Humberto and a 2nd Storm Raising Risks to Bahamas, Southeast US, and Bermuda

YouTube video by Tropical Tidbits

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 24/09/2025

🌀 Wednesday video update on two tropical systems expected to develop and bring impacts to the southwestern Atlantic region this week and next week: www.youtube.com/watch?v=whSp...

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[Wednesday] Two Tropical Systems Expected to Form and Impact Southwestern Atlantic Region

YouTube video by Tropical Tidbits

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 18/08/2025

🌀 Monday video update on Major Hurricane #Erin, which will spread dangerous coastal hazards along the U.S. eastern seaboard and the western Atlantic region this week www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MoA...

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[Monday] Major Hurricane Erin to Spread Coastal Hazards Along Eastern US & Rest of Western Atlantic

YouTube video by Tropical Tidbits

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 12/08/2025

🌀 Tuesday video discussion on Tropical Storm #Erin, moving westward across the eastern Atlantic. 🌀 Erin's track takes it north of but fairly close to the Leeward Islands of the NE Caribbean. This region should monitor the forecast & be prepared for potential impacts www.youtube.com/watch?v=uoHC...

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[Tuesday] Tropical Storm Erin Forms in the Eastern Atlantic

YouTube video by Tropical Tidbits

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 15/07/2025

🌀 Tuesday video update on Invest #93L near #Florida that will be monitored for potential development as it crosses into the northern Gulf. 🌀 Regardless of development, heavy rains spreading along the north gulf coast will raise flash flooding risks in the region. www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUum...

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[Tuesday] Watching Tropical Disturbance near Florida; Heavy Rainfall to Spread Westward

YouTube video by Tropical Tidbits

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 24/06/2025

Tropical Storm #Andrea has formed over the North Atlantic, the first of the Atlantic season. Andrea is already moving into cold waters and will be short-lived, expected to dissipate over the next 24 hours. Andrea is not a threat to any populated areas.

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 29/05/2025

The Eastern Pacific is getting going with their first Tropical Storm of the season, named #Alvin 🐿️ The NHC predicts a track northward towards northern Mexico, but fortunately, Alvin will hit some cold water on its way there, likely causing it to mostly dissipate prior to arrival.

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 26/05/2025

🌀 The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season approaches 🌀 This video provides a brief overview of current expectations for how active the season will be 🌀 The best thing you can do is be prepared. Know your local vulnerability and have a plan. Everyone stay safe this season! youtu.be/ZoJXfZVleak?...

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Outlook for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

YouTube video by Tropical Tidbits

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 09/05/2025

A great wrong has been done here. Unidata's technologies, training materials, and standards, down to the NetCDF data format itself, are the backbone of the meteorological field.

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Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

Probationary employees across @NOAA and the @NWS are being terminated today, including those in mission-essential roles. My own wife is among them, essential to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center's 24/7 critical mission of seismic monitoring and tsunami prediction to protect the public.

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