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Mōrena e te whanāu a little fresh but a perfect spot on Cheltenham Beach to sit with a cup of tea and watch the Sun rise over Brown's Island. May your day begin as brightly! Kia pai tō rā!

Photo taken at 6.39 on Cheltenham Beach of sitting man with thermos flask beside him watch the Sun rise over Brown's Island in the background

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 18h

#nzpol Gull watch 6.41 am, 17th October, no change overnight but Brent Crude rose after a Singapore flagged container ship sank after being hit by a missile tradingeconomics.com/commodity/br...

Gull Devonport price board yesterday 16th October

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 16/10/2026

#nzpol Hoarding Watch Devonport. Watts has lost his "T" but Luxon has gone goggle-eyed

National Party hoarding this morning with alterations

National Party hoarding with T before Watts

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

Mōrena e te whanāu, low cloud obscured sunrise but the pink tinged cloud banks make a dramatic backdrop for Takuranga. More rain ahead here in Tāmaki Makaurau so take a rain jacket if you're out and about. Kia pai tō rā!

Photo taken from Maungauika at 6.42bam looking towards Takuranga (off centre) with pink tinged clouds behind it

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

#nzpol Gull watch, 7.13 am, 16th October no change overnight once yesterday's 12 cents special is factored in. Meanwhile...

Gull Devonport price board yesterday 15th October

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

Mōrena e te whanāu, low cloud obscured sunrise but still a fine time for a beach walk especially as rain is expected later today here in Tāmaki Makaurau. Kia pai tō rā!

Photo taken at 6.40 am on Cheltenham Beach of silhouette of man walking as in background Brown's Island is silhouetted against backdrop of orange coloured clouds

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

#nzpol Gull watch 6.44 am 15th October. Gull are running an advertised 12 cents off special today which effectively means no change overnight. Incidentally, BP on Lake Road had 95 at $3.95/litre yesterday a pretty huge difference.

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

Mōrena e te whanāu, the Sun pops up over the Coromandel Ranges and Brown's Island at the start of another mild Spring day here in Tāmaki Makaurau. Kia pai tō rā!

Photo taken at 6.41 am on Cheltenham Beach looking towards sunrise. Brown's Island is silhouetted against the rising sun as a shaft of sunlight stretches out towards me.

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

#nzpol An obvious but goodie piece of graffiti. Other thing of note is quite a few more party vote Green signs around Devonport. Not many Act or National and only one NZ First (which was completely torn down but has now been replaced).

Hoarding for National's North Shore MP Simon Watts with a T carefully inserted before his surname to read "Simon Twatts"

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

#nzpol Gull watch 6.44 am, 14th October. 95 on the price board back online but no changes overnight. Meantime the Houthis keep up the pressure on Saudi Arabia.

Gull Devonport price board yesterday 13th October with a non-operable 95 price sign

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

Mōrena e te whanāu,a mild, grey but still start to the day, but just be aware if you are out and about the UV index is also getting higher. Kia pai tō rā!

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

#nzpol Gull watch update. Turns out I did miss a special, but here's the thing, it wasn't advertised not even on the Gull app. So once that special is taken out of the picture prices are unchanged. The poor old 95 indicator is still knackered though...

Gull pump prices left to right diesel 309.6 cents/litre, 95 366.6 cents and 91 347.6 cents

Gull Devonport price board today 8.05 am

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

#nzpol Gull watch 6.46 am, 13th October. Unless I missed a special, quite a dramatic drop overnight 12 cents for 91 & 95, 10 cents for diesel, - but apparently too much for the 95 price which appears to have blown a fuse trying to keep up. Meanwhile Brent Crude is up US$2 to above US$107 a barrel.

Gull Devonport price board today with a non functioning 95 price

Gull Devonport price board yesterday 12th October

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

Mōrena e te whanāu, grey, drizzly old start this morning, probably matching the mood of teachers and students at the start of Term 4, but there's no wind so it's not too bad. Kia pai tō rā!

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

#nzpol Gull watch 7.00 am, 12th October. No change overnight but on RNZ we're told "markets have reacted positively to the Russian diesel deal" which I'm sure has Ukrainians rejoicing. 🙄

Gull Devonport price board yesterday 11th October

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

#nzpol Gull watch 8.30 am, 11th October. 91 and 95 up 8 cents overnight but diesel is unchanged. Meanwhile Trump is talking up the deal with Russia and railing against Ukraine for attacking Russian refineries. Unreal.

Gull Devonport price board yesterday morning

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

Mōrena e te whanāu, a grey old start to the day with Rangitoto looking under the weather so to speak. Otherwise looks like a mild Spring day ahead here in Tāmaki Makaurau. Kia pai tō rā!

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

#nzpol I feel we ought to be talking more about the decline in the exchange rate since the 'Sound economic managers TM' took over after October 2023. The TWI has gone from 71.59 to 63.87 a near 11% drop. Good for exporters, yeah, the rest of us, nah. www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/s...

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

"Where the bloody hell are ya!" an expectant father asks the Sun wanting the perfect shot for a family photo. Still the grey backdrop meant the pregnant mother's vivid dress stood out. Kia pai tō rā!

Photo taken on Cheltenham Beach at 6.43 am today with a man raising his hands in apparent exasperation at the lack of sun. To his left is a photographer and in front of him is his pregnant partner in a vivid red dress. A boy, maybe 4 or 5 stands beside his mother.

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

#nzpol Gull watch 7.00 am, 10th October, no change overnight but Brent Crude rose over USD103 a barrel despite Trump's promise of no escalation over supply concerns as freight costs for tankers rose & traffic through the Strait of Hormuz declined following series of attacks on vessels in the area.

Gull Devonport price board yesterday 9th October

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Sometimes working late has its upsides...glorious sunset right now here in Takapuna looking west.

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

#nzpol Gull watch 7.18 am, 9th October. No change overnight once the 20 cents off special is factored in. Meantime Brent Crude fell back after a very reliable source, one Donald Trump, said the US was not planning more strikes on Iran. All good then!🙄

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Mōrena e te whanāu, if "Better starts now" is a question well, as The Who once said, "You better, you better, you bet!" Kia pai tō rā!

Photo taken at 6.51 am of the Sun filtering through a tree with a Labour Party sign "Better starts now" on right.

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

I think some part does but honestly it's just supposition on my part based on following this website. Based on your analysis maybe prices should be even higher. It does appear that our diesel is cheaper than in the US which is baffling given the freight costs. tradingeconomics.com/commodity/br...

Brent crude eased below the $101-per-barrel mark on Wednesday, extending a slide from September's two-month peak on signs of easing Middle Eastern supply risks. Saudi Arabia cut official selling prices for its flagship crude grade to $5 below the regional benchmark as tankers were able to depart the Persian Gulf with full cargoes. Evidence of a pickup in export volumes from regional OPEC+ producers coincided with reports that US and Iranian officials were holding talks with regional authorities this week. Further easing supply concerns, Saudi Arabia said its East-West pipeline was operating at full capacity, diverting up to 5.8 million bpd of crude to the Red Sea. Still, shipping costs remained elevated following reported strikes against vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Stateside, EIA data showed crude stockpiles fell by over 3 million barrels last week, while the Strategic Petroleum Reserve remained pinned near multi-decade lows.

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

#nzpol Gull watch 6.55 am, 8th October. Gull are running a 20 cents off special today which once factored in means no change in the baseline price overnight. Supply is starting to improve with more tankers leaving the Gulf. But there's a time-lag before that flows through to lower prices

Gull Devonport price board yesterday 7th October

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Mōrena e te whanāu Rangitoto looked like it was in a painting with all the interesting pink-tinged clouds just before sunrise. Grand day ahead here in Tāmaki Makaurau. Kia pai tō rā!

Photo from Cheltenham Beach at 6.46 am of Rangitoto on a still morning surrounded by pink tinged clouds just before sunrise.

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

#nzpol Gull watch 8.10 am 7th October. No change overnight as Brent Crude continues to bounce around US$100 a barrel. Meanwhile the Houthis and Iran are continuing their attacks but Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline's pumping capacity is back to 5.8 million bpd.

Gull Devonport price board yesterday (6th October)

Brent pared most of its early losses to trade around $100.1 a barrel on Tuesday, after falling to $97.8 earlier in the session as supply concerns resurfaced. A Saudi-led coalition said it had intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile launched by the Houthis toward Khamis Mushait in Saudi Arabia, while reports indicated that Iran had stepped up attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz in the past days. However, signs of improving supply flows continued to weigh on prices. Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources announced that the East-West oil pipeline had restored its crude pumping capacity to 5.8 million bpd. Meanwhile, G7 countries agreed on Friday to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves and pledged to refrain from imposing energy export restrictions. Despite these measures, the EIA projected Brent crude prices at $105 a barrel in Q4 2026, $14 higher than its previous forecast.

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Mōrena e te whanāu, this gentleman seemed too absorbed in scrolling his phone to notice the Sun creeping above the low cloud. OTOH, not a bad place to sit and catch up on what's happening. Kia pai tō rā!

Photo at Windsor Reserve at 6.59 am of man sitting in beach chair looking at his phone as shaft of sunlight reaches across water towards him

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Mōrena e te whanāu, a clear still start today, but still pretty fresh, with a high of 17° expected here in Tāmaki Makaurau. Just be aware the UV index is already quite high. Kia pai tō rā!

Photo taken at 6.56 am looking east from Maungauika towards Brown's Island (centre) as the Sun creeps above the low-lying clouds. On the right is a ferry heading towards Half-Moon Bay

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

#nzpol Gull watch 7.01 am, 6th October no change overnight but 91 is now above the price 6 months ago with 95 just lower and diesel nearly 60 cents cheaper!

Gull Devonport price board yesterday 5th October

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

#nzpol At the Better Taxes Election Forum to discover National and ACT didn't accept the invitation. (Too woke, I guess). Sadly, Oriini Kaipara of TPM has had to withdraw.

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Mōrena e te whanāu, was able to get back to Devonport after my appearance on Morning Report and capture the sunrise over Torpedo Bay. Still pretty fresh but looks like a fine day ahead here in Tāmaki Makaurau. Kia pai tō rā!

Photo taken from Torpedo Bay at 6.59 am as the sun rises over low cloud. Lower slope of Maungauika and the Torpedo Bay wharf are on the left.

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

#nzpol Gull watch 7.30 am, 5th October. Diesel is unchanged overnight but 91 and 95 are both up 4 cents a litre. Given continuing uncertainty in the Gulf hard to see prices settling lower soon.

Gull Devonport price board yesterday 4th October

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

#nzpol A very early start this morning to join Ingrid Hipkiss and John Campbell (delightful as ever) live on Morning Report just after 6 to discuss ACT's a KiwiSaver proposal announced yesterday. Always surprised, and grateful, to be invited for comment. www.rnz.co.nz/national/pro...

Me in the Morning Report studio with Ingrid Hipkiss and John Campbell just ahead of my interview about KiwiSaver with Ingrid.

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Mōrena e te whanāu anyone seen Spring? Faintly pink tinged clouds over Mission Bay are the only clue that the Sun has risen. With the drizzle and cool south-westerly it feels very Autumnal. Kia pai tō rā!

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

#nzpol Gull watch 7.05 am, 4th October 91 and 95 up 9 cents😬 overnight and diesel 6 cents. The G7's release of 100 million barrels from their strategic reserves won't make a significant difference in my view.

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

A huge & disconcerting story here, covering organised crime, 501s (thanks Australia), money laundering, migrant abuse, extensive tax evasion corruption in the construction industry & prison system. Excellent work by Jared Savage. www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/police-wa...

New Zealand’s construction industry may face a reckoning after police uncovered a money-laundering system moving hundreds of millions of dollars in organised crime profits through building businesses. Gangs are exploiting cash-paid labour to launder drug money while unscrupulous subcontractors dodge tax and undercut legitimate operators. Police say the true scale is likely greater, warning construction leaders their systems are simply not robust enough. Jared Savage reports.

Hundreds of millions of dollars are being laundered through the construction industry each year by organised crime groups, according to a new police report to the Government.

A recent investigation into the commercial drug dealing of the Comancheros led to more convictions for the gang’s hierarchy – and a disgraced accountant – but also uncovered a new methodology of disguising the profits of their drug dealing.

Known as cash wages money-laundering, organised crime groups hand their dirty cash to a subcontractor who provides casual labourers to work on construction projects.

The subcontractor uses the gang’s cash to pay the labourers, often exploited migrants, under the table.

Excellent diagram showing how the cash wage money laundering works through the construction industry.

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Mōrena e te whanāu only the pink tinged clouds give a clue that it's past sunrise. Mild but there's still a pretty fresh south-westerly blowing, if not as strong as yesterday. Kia pai tō rā!

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

#nzpol Gull watch 7.07 am 3rd October, no change overnight but the news China’s major refiners have suspended most refined fuel exports for October could have some effect if not now later. OTOH Brent Crude fell to US$102 a barrel. Uncertainty abounds. Thanks Trump🙄 bsky.app/profile/kiwi...

Gull Devonport price board yesterday 2nd October

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Mōrena e te whanāu a grey old start this morning and there's also a pretty fresh south-westerly blowing so feels more like Autumn than Spring. Low tide at Cheltenham Beach was an hour before I shot this so you can get some idea of how far you can walk out then. Kia pai tō rā!

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

#nzpol Gull watch 7.10 am, 2nd October. No change overnight (after yesterday's 15 cents special) but Brent Crude is back over US$100 a barrel after a sharp increase maybe in reaction to yesterday's attempted plane hijack.

Gull Devonport price board Wednesday (pre yesterday's 15 cents special)

Screenshot of current Brent Crude price and daily movements

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

#nzpol Time for some context. NACT will squawk about over $11bn of interest being payable, but after interest income the net payable is $5bn or 1.1% of GDP based on estimated GDP of $470bn to June 2027. This is *checks notes* BELOW the Eurozone, Japan and just a QUARTER of the US interest bill.

Screenshot of Treasury's PREFU forecast for June 2027 interest revenue is estimated to be $6,486m and interest expense $11,657m or net $5,171m

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Mōrena e te whanāu I'm not the only one photographing sunrises, this person one of quite a few admiring the view on Cheltenham Beach on a fine Spring morning here in Tāmaki Makaurau . Kia pai tō rā!

Photo taken at 7.00 am today on Cheltenham Beach with a person photographing the sunrise in the foreground, the sun rising just right of the centre, scattered pink tinged clouds at the top and Rangitoto with a thin layer of cloud just below its summit on the right.

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

#nzpol Gull watch 7.08 am 1st October 15 cents off special today which effectively means no change overnight. Over September 91 and 95 both increased by 39 cents a litre, but diesel rose 46 cents or nearly 18%. Pain at the pump not over yet.

Gull Devonport price board today including 15 cents off special

Gull Devonport price board yesterday 30th September pre-special

Gull Devonport price board 1st September

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Mōrena e te whanāu sunrise over Brown's Island as the Gulf Harbour ferry passes by on its way to the city. Still a pretty fresh start to the day here in Tāmaki Makaurau but should warm up later. Meanwhile, looking the other way the moon is still visible above Cheltenham Beach. Kia pai tō rā!

View from Maungauika at 7.04 am. The sun is rising over Brown's Island in the background as a ferry passes through a shaft of sunlight. The trees along the slopes of Maungauika are in the foreground.

Looking North from Maungauika along Cheltenham Beach with the Moon dead centre. Note the sunlight glinting off iconic wedding venue McHughs on Cheltenham Beach

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

#nzpol Gull watch 7.11 am, 30th September no change overnight. Brent Crude remains above US$100 a barrel but Saudi Arabia has got its pipeline to the Red Sea working pumping about 3-4 million barrels a day. Meanwhile Gulf supertanker leasing charges are up 40-fold(!) this year 😬

Gull Devonport price board yesterday morning (29th September)

Chart of Gulf supertanker daily leasing charges have gone from under US$10,000 in January to over US$1.2 million now - a forty-fold increase. Note the big spike since July.

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Great indeed. What exactly is the strategy here? An executive from a direct competitor probably sounds good on paper and NZME has managed to hold up its profitability even as revenues plunge from $407.4 in FY 2016 to $345.1 in FY 2025. But RNZ isn't meant to make money & couldn't if it tried.

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Mōrena e te whanāu, a watery sunrise on a cool morning here in Tāmaki Makaurau viewed from Tina's hospital room just before we found out she does NOT need a cardioversion as her heart has (finally) restored its rhythm after her operation seven weeks ago. May your day be as good as Tina's! 😃

Photo taken at 7.11 am looking east over housing with Ōhinerau (Mt Hobson) silhouetted on right and an interesting diagonal shaped cloud above Ōhinerau and above the Sun

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

#nzpol Gull watch, 8.46 am, 29th September, 91 & 95 both DOWN 9 cents a litre overnight (and no special today) BUT, diesel remains unchanged. That's not really surprising because it's the pressure point in the system especially in the US.

Gull Devonport price board yesterday (28th September)

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Terry Baucher @trabaq.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Mōrena e te whanāu, we have some low cloud and a cool start for the first day of the school holidays but the wind has dropped away here in TāmakiMakaurau. Kia pai tō rā!

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