James @toner56.bsky.social · 2hAgain: *I* understand that. But the principle isn’t the law; it doesn’t have a “you were a child” caveat (hence DACA!) *If* (big if) there is paperwork that shows falsified data, like a (supposedly) fake date of birth, that can be litigated decades later and be a problem. 110
James @toner56.bsky.social · 3hBottom line I agree with Wesley that it’s good for Dems: Trump voters false recall = disapproval of Trump = more likely to vote Dem (if they vote at all) See data below: essentially all false recall are Trump disapprovers Reverse is also true for Harris voters that approve of Trump! But many fewer 020
James @toner56.bsky.social · 3hI’m so amused by the random political insider knowledge you have. I’m super online yet lightyears from “aware of changes to KJP’s party registration” lmao What’s the most normal way you could learn this. Did she announce it? (Would be weird!) did someone suspect and checked? (Maybe even weirder!) 100
James @toner56.bsky.social · 12hSome people don’t know who they are voting for until they are holding their ballot. It’d be hard to remember a snap decision when there’s no record of it! 100
James @toner56.bsky.social · 12h3. Cheating election results is very hard. *Especially* to hide as a consistent polling error across a dozen states, hundreds of counties, and thousands of precincts. It’s not feasible. 4. Keeping cheating *secret* is even harder. There’d be advance planning, coordination, etc. It would leak out. 100
James @toner56.bsky.social · 12hImpossible for legitimate reasons: 1. Polls are always off *some*, and sometimes more sometimes less 2. Usually after a couple of weeks we can tell *why* polls were off. Like 2016 miss was largely low education voters splitting from high ed ones. That was new!! Before 2016 education didn’t matter 100
James @toner56.bsky.social · 12hNah, Split Ticket has evidence it’s all concentrated among voters that now disapprove of Trump Most likely they are lying **to themselves** about who they voted for to resolve their cognitive dissonance, guilt, shame, anger, etc 000
James @toner56.bsky.social · 12hEg: say actual was 50-50 Polled recall is 53 D 47 R That’s too many Ds, so down weight D respondents to make overall 50-50. This is common (partly more Ds with desk jobs where they can answer polls!) But if the sample SAYS 53 D when it is *actually* 50 D, downweighting undercounts Dems! 000
James @toner56.bsky.social · 12hImplies underrating Dems Most pollsters weight to recalled vote to ensure it matches the actual results. This is normally a good way to adjust a sample to have the correct % of Rs and Ds But if 6% of Trump voters say they voted Harris, then the poll will see too many Harris voters and underweight 100
James @toner56.bsky.social · 13hST knows ‘actual’ 2024 vote because they asked *right after* the election. Then they polled those same exact people this year asking for both their Trump approval and their 2024 recall. As there was no reason to lie (forget, regret, etc) the day after the election, that’s assumed to be the truth 020
James @toner56.bsky.social · 13hThe norm is for more people to ‘recall’ voting for the winner of the last election than actually did. However Trump (and Biden) were so unpopular by the end the reverse happened and too many people ‘recalled’ voting for the loser Split Ticket has data proving it’s due to their dislike of Trump 130
James @toner56.bsky.social · 13hIt all matters in different ways at the margins. But the lying poll respondents are almost all people who disagree with their actual 2024 vote, which makes sense but is a new phenomenon And it’s a big modeling problem for pollsters if they weight their sample to 2024 recalled vote as is common! 140
James @toner56.bsky.social · 13hI’ve never been able to get over the fact that the Arendellian soldiers have been fighting a hot war without reinforcement for *literal decades* How are they still alive, are they using nerf weapons? Living off the land the whole time? After years of zero casualties maybe time to call it? 250
James @toner56.bsky.social · 14hMy wife is from Albuquerque and she had a LOT to say about the scene to scene geography of Breaking Bad. “They walked out of a house in the high desert, how did they get to downtown?! That’s on the opposite side of the city! Did they walk across the interstate without anyone seeing them?!” 010
James @toner56.bsky.social · 15hThe Romans had large rectangular shields which matched the angular turtle/box shape. Greeks used circular shields so they’d overlap with their neighbor’s in their INFAMOUSLY SUCCESSFUL phalanx formation. The movie had the round Greek shields but still the wrong tactic. They weren’t made for that!! 000
James @toner56.bsky.social · 15hThis probably isn’t niche enough, but in Troy (2004) when Greek hero Achilles and co land on shore and immediately form a box shield formation … a tactic that wasn’t developed until 1,000 years later by the Romans. My immediate reaction was “Oh. I see…static.klipy.comIt Ain'T That Kinda Movie It Ain'T That Kind Of MovieALT: It Ain'T That Kinda Movie It Ain'T That Kind Of Movie 100
James @toner56.bsky.social · 17hI appreciate the enthusiasm but in what possible way is this “just the beginning”? 000
James @toner56.bsky.social · 18hI understand this thinking, but my questions are “will any 2028 swing voters care about an acquittal vote from 18 months ago? Will they even care about Trump at all when there’s an actual 2028 R nominee?” I’d expect anyone who cares is already a hardcore Vote Blue No Matter Who voter! 000
James @toner56.bsky.social · 18hMy fear is the opposite! 1. Making facts public only matters to low info people (high info already know) 2. The one thing they will ALL hear is the acquittal 3. They’ll assume acquittal = innocent because low info are naive (if they were savvy they’d be high info!) 4. reinforces Dems = losing 200
James @toner56.bsky.social · 20hI was there 10 years ago. That’s not the impression I got, though I think it depends a lot on the questions you ask and who is answering them. Although I DID feel that way at Monticello, while Mount Vernon was the complete opposite and felt like it was almost entirely about the true laborers 0110
James @toner56.bsky.social · 20hResponding to both of you: *I* know. I used the DACA comparison specifically to show children can still be punished for immigration decisions their parents made. It’s a shitty system! If her immigration or citizenship paperwork was somehow falsified, it could be used to denaturalize her (and Musk) 010
James @toner56.bsky.social · 21hI think so, as that was the whole point of Obama’s DACA/Dreamer policy to protect former child immigrants I believe there’s no ‘statute of limitations’ and can lead to stripping citizenship (hence libs fantasizing Elon could lose citizenship as he surely lied about working while on a student visa) 380
James @toner56.bsky.social · 21hConfused why you started with “it’s the straights” when your conclusion is “it’s the lower sex drive of women”? Also why are you bringing up sex frequency *in* relationships at all when the topic was *starting* relationships? It inherently can’t be an issue for someone who doesn’t have a partner!! 100
James @toner56.bsky.social · 21hThe funniest part to me is claiming Talarico sought secret treatment so he traveled across the country to the private and sympathetic confines of… Ohio?! Like he wouldn’t go to Dem strongholds of Chicago or Denver where there are fewer Rs to rat him out and he could play it off as donor meetings??? 050
James @toner56.bsky.social · 22hHonestly, gotta give them credit for coming up with such a creative way to run the ‘Anthony Weiner sexting girls scandal somehow involves Hillary Clinton’ play again. They don’t even have to prove anything, just gotta link the candidate with something objectively wrong by ‘asking the question’ 000
James @toner56.bsky.social · 12/10/2026The Talarico story also has a short shelf life because a third party could immediately refute it. Raiding Omar will have neither an immediate nor cleae conclusion, it’ll just be hanging out there until November 3654
James @toner56.bsky.social · 12/10/2026static.klipy.comAlonzo Mourning and Gary Payton on Miami Heat BenchALT: Alonzo Mourning and Gary Payton on Miami Heat Bench 030
James @toner56.bsky.social · 12/10/2026Maybe ‘moral’ isn’t the right word, but I do think it’s something to your credit that you traded some career success to make yourself feel better! 020
James @toner56.bsky.social · 12/10/2026The drug use is illegal, yes, but busting him for ketamine doesn’t justify the government taking his company ownership away. At best you can take away security clearance but good luck enforcing that 020
James @toner56.bsky.social · 12/10/2026Unfortunately a high percentage of the people that work at a Musk company *like* him as those who most dislike him will have self selected out by now So you can’t just remove musk without causing a lot of turmoil within. Plus… what do you arrest him for? He sucks but not much is illegal? 110
James @toner56.bsky.social · 12/10/2026It’s very inclusive! (Among the people they haven’t already run off) 1210
James @toner56.bsky.social · 12/10/2026They have a target, a Publix, and a standalone Starbucks now! They’ve hit the big time! 010
James @toner56.bsky.social · 12/10/2026Yeah this is my level. Growing up in a town of <10k I was jealous of the town 30 minutes away because they had a Chick-fil-A, a place I never got to eat at when we saw them on the way home from weekend soccer tournaments 110
James @toner56.bsky.social · 11/10/2026Im not talking about Gen Z, I’m talking about the 30-somethings. I’ll spell it out with the red lines. The average 30 something of each generation has had a bit more wealth than $50k in present day dollars. 000
James @toner56.bsky.social · 11/10/2026Honestly seems more like they can’t read the chart? Data says the median 30-something of every generation has had net worth of ~$60k in 2025 dollars So… it’s completely average that none of his friends of 30-something’s are worth 6 figures! 120
James @toner56.bsky.social · 11/10/2026It means the *average* person’s wealth is determined almost entirely by their age. When the average person is young they have nothing, and when old they have a few hundred K. So if comparing people, generations, etc you need to adjust for age or else it just shows one group is older than the other 160
James @toner56.bsky.social · 10/10/2026I think the gap is explained by the voters that have swung the most from 2024. Pills show the two biggest swings have been among 1) young voters, and 2) Hispanic voters. Maine is the oldest state in the country (median age) and the 2nd lowest Hispanic population. 000
James @toner56.bsky.social · 10/10/2026Depends? I could see it for an intentional DOGSO red. Canonical example is Suarez’s handball red. 030
James @toner56.bsky.social · 10/10/2026Not the point, I know, but it’s quite well known that Popes *are* elected! Plus “be a mouthpiece to sway public opinion” is like the pope’s entire purpose 010
James @toner56.bsky.social · 10/10/2026I thought this was about Alexander the Great’s general, and didn’t remember anything about him and bears. Which I suspect says a lot about which Type of Guy I am. 000
James @toner56.bsky.social · 10/10/2026Wild to me that someone could vote for a candidate three times and then have such a strong change of heart they’re willing to publicly oppose them in an ad 160
James @toner56.bsky.social · 10/10/2026I think this is straight up true! There are still lots of Cowboys fans in Virginia because Landry and the Cowboys were integrated while the local Washington team resisted integrating as long as possible, and many black Virginians became Cowboys fans in response 1240