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Thomas Warrick

@tomwarrickac.bsky.social
563 followers 37 following 436 posts

Atlantic Council Nonresident Senior Fellow in Middle East Programs and Director, Future of DHS Project. Former State Department Senior Advisor, former DHS Deputy Assistant Secretary for Counterterrorism Policy. Reposts do not imply endorsement.

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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
This important article by two of the world's most notable diplomats, Eric Alter and Nickolay Mladenov, both with the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy, deserves to be read by everyone interested in the success of the #UnitedNations. nationalinterest.org/feature/how-...
nationalinterest.org
How the UN Can Save Itself
If the UN is going to lose funding anyway, it should think long and hard about what it wants to preserve.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
(2 of 2) 2. To start these projects, OHR needs contracting officers, lawyers, auditors, and the back-office staff that right now they don’t have at scale. Scaling up OHR is vital and urgent, and does not need to wait for elections or disarmament.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
(1 of 2) Much of what’s here is very good. Two important priorities: 1. The top priority for the Americans working for the BoP is to get 5,000 ISF troops deployed into Gaza, esp. east of the Yellow Line. 2. To start all the good projects ... www.axios.com/2026/09/23/t...
axios.com
Scoop: Trump's Board of Peace to unveil $2.45 billion Gaza recovery plan
The plan would require the cooperation of Israel and Hamas.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Important words about Gaza by my Atlantic Council colleague Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib: www.nytimes.com/2026/09/04/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | To Save Gaza, Resist Hamas
If Western supporters of the Palestinians want to help Gaza, denounce Hamas.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
(And note this was not caused by the Iran war.)
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
#Strategicresilience is vital, and fresh water is one of the most important systems industrialized countries have—not just in the Middle East. New masterplan needed after desalination shutdown underlines dangers of tech overreliance www.timesofisrael.com/new-masterpl... via @timesofisrael
timesofisrael.com
New masterplan needed after desalination shutdown underlines dangers of tech overreliance
Experts blast complacency, urge reviving wells, natural buffers, and conservation to lower the 80% of drinking water that comes from coastal facilities
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Everyone concerned with strategic resilience should read this: wapo.st/3UuZKOr
wapo.st
Why more homeowners across the U.S. are turning to an insurance that offers less coverage
As traditional insurers retreat from areas most vulnerable to extreme weather, more Americans struggling to find coverage are seeking out surplus line plans.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Important points from High Representative Nickolay Mladenov about the need for urgency on Gaza. x.com/AJEnglish/st...
x.com
Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) on X
Top envoy for the US-led Board of Peace says Gaza is at risk of being "gone for good" without reconstruction, Israeli withdrawal and demilitarisation in the territory. Nikolay Mladenov tells Al Jazee...
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Some quick thoughts on today's Iran sanctions announcement: www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/e...
atlanticcouncil.org
Experts react: Will Trump’s Operation Economic Outcast isolate Iran?
Our experts weigh in on the US Treasury’s newest measures intended “to sever every remaining economic lifeline sustaining” to the Iranian regime.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
This is what #strategicresilience is: During the August 10 earthquake that struck Colombia, no one died in the city of Armenia, population 300,000. Read this story as a lesson! How to beat an earthquake: The Colombian city where no one died wapo.st/4gmG0E4
wapo.st
How to beat an earthquake: The Colombian city where no one died
A deadly temblor devastated Armenia in 1999, spurring a reconstruction that allowed the city to build back stronger. When disaster struck this time, it was prepared.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
Second part of the video. This is good advice from an expert who happens to be Michigan's Senator.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
Sen. Elissa Slotkin talks about extreme weather in Michigan—but her advice applies to everybody everywhere. "Extreme weather" is becoming more common. You can take steps to protect you and your family. Listen to her advice! 1 of 2
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
This deal has a long way to go to succeed, but tonight was something to see.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Subsequent speakers an hour later are now discussing whether the armed resistance hangs in the balance. Tonight’s agreement has changed the debate.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
After several minutes of the other guests being critical, Hamas spokesman Ghazi Hamad called in. He said that Hamas regarded this as the best deal they could negotiate, and they did it for the people of Gaza. He said other things you would expect, but this shocked the others.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Historic moment on Al-Jazeera tonight after @RealDonaldTrump’s post about the disarmament deal with Hamas. I was cautiously optimistic. What was announced was far from perfect, it was progress and should be credited as such. The other panelists were deeply skeptical and cynical.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid expresses support for the Trump 20-point plan for postwar #Gaza at the Atlantic Council on July 27:
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
This is interesting: www.timesofisrael.com/ex-idf-gener...
timesofisrael.com
Ex-IDF generals appeal to Trump, warn of ‘calamity’ if PM doesn’t curb settler violence
Hundreds of retired security officials urge US president to force Netanyahu's hand in West Bank, say politics leave army 'severely constrained when it comes to Jewish terrorists'
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
As we celebrate the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence, I urge everyone to read my Atlantic Council colleagues writing about "What America means to me": www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/w...
atlanticcouncil.org
‘What America means to me’: Global perspectives on the country’s 250th anniversary
Atlantic Council fellows and staff not from (or not originally from) the United States share their reflections on the US semiquincentennial.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
The Board of Peace staff meeting in Cyprus needs to jumpstart Gaza's physical and social reconstruction. The highly respected Nickolay Mladenov leads experts working hard to make this a reality. Here are recommendations for their two most urgent priorities: jstribune.com/gazas-fate-h...
jstribune.com
Gaza’s Fate Hangs in the Balance in a Crucial Three-Day Meeting in Cyprus – The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune
Essays – The fate of 2.1 million people in Gaza hangs in the balance this week as key officials working for the Board of Peace meet in Cyprus starting Tuesday for
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Expect an Iranian response to this: www.reuters.com/world/middle...
reuters.com
Iran says card-based banking hit by cyberattack on three lenders
Iran's state-owned banking technology provider said ​on Tuesday that cyberattacks had disrupted card-based banking services ‌at Bank Melli, Bank Saderat and Bank Tejarat.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Everyone should read this: www.hstoday.us/subject-matt...
hstoday.us
Back to the Future: What the 1977 Terror Film Black Sunday Still Teaches About Homeland Security - HSToday
The recent theft of 15 crop-spraying drones in New Jersey—which scrambled federal authorities and triggered an investigation—has sharpened concerns about the misuse of commercially available aerial sy...
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
Wow! Outstanding!! Let's see more!
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
We clearly have a "Meme Gap."
An Iranian meme showing a car with a real and a child's play steering wheel, quoting President Trump's statement "The Strait of Hormuz will be controlled by me and the Ayatollah." side by side with a meme showing President Trump with the President and Prime Minister of Lebanon standing over a relief map of Lebanon with the initials "MLGA" for "Make Lebanon Great Again."
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 04/04/2026
President Trump wants the #IranWar to be a “win,” but if there is no deal, attacking Iran’s energy and water infrastructure is not a winning strategy for the US, because of Iran’s #PeculiarSenseOfSymmetry. Here's why. www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/a... Next week: A better strategy.
atlanticcouncil.org
Attacking Iran’s energy and water infrastructure is not a winning strategy
The Iranian regime uses a peculiar sense of symmetry in how it conducts military campaigns that cuts against the proposed US plan.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
This piece by my Atlantic Council colleague Caitlin Thompson deserves to be widely read - www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...
atlanticcouncil.org
Federal agencies under pressure need smarter systems, not tougher people
Resilience is an important trait for national security practitioners, but it is not a solution for problems with agency and department design.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
6/6 At 6m45s, Araghchi says Iran would have to recover the enriched uranium and has no plans to recover it. That’s what he said.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
5/6 At 6 minutes, he claims Iran’s enriched uranium is “under the rubble,” not specifying whether Fordow, Isfahan, or elsewhere.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
4/6 At 5m30s, Araghchi says safe passage through the Strait is “up to our military.” Meaning not Iran’s “civilian” leader. This shows that the IRGC is really calling the shots for Iran in this war.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
3/6 At 5m10s, Araghchi says the Strait of Hormuz is open to France and Italy. We’ll see.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
2/6 At 3m55s, Araghchi claims US HIMARS rocket artillery was responsible for striking Kharg Island from UAE territory. But the US base at Al-Dhafra is at least 340 km from Kharg, and the maximum range of HIMARS I thought was only about 300 km.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
1/6 Some extremely interesting points from Iranian FM Araghchi’s “Face the Nation” interview just now, but you have to watch it because their writeup misses some key points: www.cbsnews.com/news/iranian...
cbsnews.com
Iranian foreign minister says "we don't see any reason why we should talk with Americans"
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that "we don't see any reason why we should talk with Americans" as President Trump has claimed Iran is seeking a deal to end the war between the U.S. and ...
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
I would like this sentence posted in a sign in every planning SCIF at DOD and State (tap the link!): www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/curse-m....
foreignaffairs.com
The Curse of Middle-Sized Wars
In Iran, Trump risks falling into a familiar trap.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
You must listen to Steve Witkoff on the Mark Levin Show to understand how we got into this war. You're listening to history here, and it's not what most people think. The misunderstandings, esp. on the Iranian side, are staggering and rival "Guns of August." rumble.com/v76l928-excl...
rumble.com
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
And this from the UK, France and Germany: We will take steps to defend our interests and those of our allies in the region, potentially through enabling necessary and proportionate defensive action to destroy Iran’s capability to fire missiles and drones at their source. www.gov.uk/government/n...
gov.uk
Joint E3 Leaders’ Statement on Iran: 1 March 2026
Joint E3 Leaders’ Statement on Iran.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
Just released, Iran has now unified the world against them. First, there's this: www.state.gov/releases/off...
state.gov
Joint Statement on Iran’s Missile and Drone Attacks in the Region - United States Department of State
The text of the following statement was released by the Governments of the United States of America and Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates on the...
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
Some believe it wasn’t the US A-bomb that caused Japan’s surrender, it was Russia joining the war against Japan on 8/8/45. Think about today’s announcement by UK, France, and Germany they would “destroy Iran’s capability to fire missiles and drones at their source.” www.gov.uk/government/n...
gov.uk
Joint E3 Leaders’ Statement on Iran: 1 March 2026
Joint E3 Leaders’ Statement on Iran.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
On CTV (Canada) last night discussing the implications of the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamene'i. Worth a watch if you have 6 minutes. review.bellmedia.ca/view/265932503
review.bellmedia.ca
Bell Media Creative Review | THOMAS S. WARRICK NCH INTERVIEW
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
Watch the video to the end and you see Trump's strategy: sustained attacks to weaken Iranian security and strategic targets (probably including leadership), until the Iranian people overthrow the regime. This is trying to draw to an inside straight.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
An important story on computer chip production that deserves to be read. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/24/t...
nytimes.com
The Looming Taiwan Chip Disaster That Silicon Valley Has Long Ignored
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Interesting. understandingwar.org/research/rus...
understandingwar.org
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 19, 2026
Western sources continue to indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s objectives are not limited to control of Ukrainian territory.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
Trump announces the United States will contribute $10 billion to the Board of Peace.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
This @nytimes.com article has been annoying me all day. The photo is described as the Strait of Hormuz, but it's not. Where is it? Kudos to whomever can figure out where it really is! www.nytimes.com/2026/02/16/w...
nytimes.com
Iran Holds Exercises in Strait of Hormuz After Trump Threatens Military Action
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
This fits the pattern we noticed in January of last year: Abolishing FEMA would hurt all Americans, but particularly Trump voters. This map aligns with the numbers announced today. www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
atlanticcouncil.org
Abolishing FEMA would hurt all Americans—particularly Trump voters
Instead of abolishing the agency, US President Donald Trump should support fixing its problems, making it more efficient, and changing its focus to include strategic resilience.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
Interesting numbers in $2.2 billion in FEMA funding announced today for past disasters. The DHS press release lists only the 15 largest of 1,721 recovery projects, but of those $875 million, $768 million went to states that voted for President Trump. www.dhs.gov/news/2026/01...
dhs.gov
Secretary Noem Unlocks More Than $2.2 Billion in Additional Federal Funding to Rebuild Communities Hit by Past Disasters | Homeland Security
Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Kristi Noem announced more than $2.2 billion in disaster relief funding to support ongoing recovery efforts from a variety of natural disasters.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
An important change in Minnesota: Exclusive: ICE officers in Minnesota directed not to interact with 'agitators' - www.reuters.com/world/ice-of...
reuters.com
Exclusive: ICE officers in Minnesota directed not to interact with 'agitators' in new orders
The new internal guidance reviewed by Reuters also orders U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers to only target immigrants who have criminal charges or convictions.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
Still not downloading TikTok. Here's why. tiktok's new privacy policy is sparking a backlash. here's what to know. www.cbsnews.com/news/tiktok-...
cbsnews.com
TikTok's new privacy policy is sparking a backlash. Here's what to know.
Some TikTok users are raising questions about the app's new terms and conditions after the social media platform's split from its China-based parent.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
A great analysis of counterterrorism strategy by Chris Costa and Colin Clarke: #CT Loosening the Gordian Knot of Global Terrorism: Why Legitimacy Must Anchor a Counterterrorism Strategy www.thecipherbrief.com/loosening-th...
thecipherbrief.com
Loosening the Gordian Knot of Global Terrorism: Why Legitimacy Must Anchor a Counterterrorism Strategy
OPINION — The global terrorism landscape in 2026 — the 25th anniversary year of the 9/11 terrorism attacks — is more uncertain, hybridized, and combustible than at any point since 9/11. Framing a soun...
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
On Al-Jazeera Sunday night discussing the challenges ahead for the Board of Peace and the efforts to rebuild Gaza. Much depends on what happens in Davos in the coming days: President Trump will urge members to contribute serious amounts of money and troops for the International Stabilization Force.
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Thomas Warrick @tomwarrickac.bsky.social · 18/01/2026
Both the Damascus-based guest and the Kurdish guest got into it with each other at the end—proof that the mistrust runs deep. Amb. Barrack is right to regard this as both sides needing to work to gain the trust of the other.
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