Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 17hInteresting to see just how important physical sales are in the music market. (from the @economist.com) 010
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Not sure where to start with this. "most of the work economists have put in to explain Britain’s productivity puzzle over the past 15 years was wasted." "statisticians didn't realise that when people do not answer the telephone.. they might well be on holiday." giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...giftarticle.ft.comWhy your holiday is good news for the UKFor once we should thank the Office for National Statistics for its productivity reporting 010
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Interesting point in WSJ article on phone prices - basically, the lack of transparency means it is easier for mobile operators to hide higher prices in new contract plans. 042
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 04/08/2026They said that AT&T, Verizon and T-Mo have revenues of $600bn, which will be news to them ($300bn is probably closer). SpaceX said that it intends to win "quite a few of their customers" 031
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 04/08/2026When asked about mobile ambitions: “we definitely intend to build out the terrestrial components...to make a true mobile service” i.e. it intends to build out an MNO. 100
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 04/08/2026Starlink is “taking a localised GTM approach” which “may push down blended ARPU over time”. Not a surprise, but not something they have said before. 110
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 04/08/2026May be extra detail in the call shortly. Plenty more on SpaceX on Analysys Mason's dedicated page: www.analysysmason.com/what-we-do/p...analysysmason.comSpaceX: strategy, market impact and outlookAnalysys Mason's research combines detailed, expert analysis of SpaceX’s strategy, performance and long-term impact on telecoms, satellite and adjacent markets. 110
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 04/08/2026Key figures on connectivity from Q2 - Revenue up to $4.3bn (from $3.3bn in Q1) - Broadband subscribers up to 12 million (+1.7m over the last quarter) - ARPU is $66 per month (stable) - EBITDA is 61% (slightly down from Q1's 64%, but still exceptionally high for a telecoms business) 100
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 04/08/2026SpaceX's figures for Q2 show continued growth in connectivity, but nothing too surprising from a quick read. AI grew a lot in the quarter (from $800m to $2.6bn). Not a surprise given the various announcements, but it means that connectivity is a smaller share of total revenue (55% vs 69% in Q1) 110
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 10/07/2026Fun times. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...giftarticle.ft.comXavier Niel becomes largest Vodafone shareholderFrench billionaire purchases stake from Emirati group e& in move to bolster European telecoms businesses 020
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 03/07/2026Satellite, satellite, satellite, satellite. First four telecoms stories on the WSJ today. 020
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 29/06/2026“Investors are now demanding a yield of almost 9 per cent to hold the company’s long-dated debt.” Ouch giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Virgin Media O2 bonds slide as broadband rivals squeeze cash flowgiftarticle.ft.comVirgin Media O2 bonds slide as broadband rivals squeeze cash flowTelecoms group’s bonds tumble as altnets take market share and investors fret over £2bn Netomnia deal 021
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 18/06/2026Starlink will act rationally to grow revenue + subscribers (but it may not look rational to others). Starlink can cut ARPUs lower (potentially much lower where it has spare capacity), and that could disrupt terrestrial operators. www.analysysmason.com/research/con... 051
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 17/06/2026"Jio could file a draft prospectus for its expected $4bn IPO with India’s capital markets regulator within days" giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...giftarticle.ft.comMukesh Ambani’s Jio set to file for IPO as hopes grow for end to India’s listings droughtIran war has hit country’s equity market and disrupted what was positioned to be another record year for flotations 000
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 16/06/2026Apropos of nothing: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine” Benjamin Graham. 000
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 10/06/2026Neither Vodafone UK or EE have any basic non-smartphones on sale (from a quick look at their sites). Seems odd to me; lots of parents don’t want a smartphone for their kids. Why don’t they offer this? Not enough demand? Something else? 010
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 10/06/2026Not much of a surprise - I suspect this all comes down to price as the fit is obvious. I wonder if it is actually VodafoneThree bidding, or Vodafone Group. Presumably simpler for Group rather than through the unwinding JV. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...giftarticle.ft.comVodafoneThree bids for TalkTalk consumer businessAcquisition would help UK’s largest mobile operator fulfil ambition to double its broadband business 010
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 04/06/2026Goldman Sachs expects SpaceX’s AI revenue to increase 100-fold by 2030 “Goldman is expecting SpaceX’s revenue from its Starlink satellite internet service to be $144bn in 2030” So bigger than Verizon in 4 years time. Hmm. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...giftarticle.ft.comGoldman Sachs expects SpaceX’s AI revenue to increase 100-fold by 2030Projections by Wall Street bank underpin the $1.78tn valuation group is pitching in IPO 252
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 03/06/2026Went camping this weekend, same place as in 2025. Last year, there was no coverage. This year I got 2 bars. The D2D opportunity is shrinking fast. 052
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 29/05/2026I saw a kid in the park yesterday wearing a MAGA hat and a PSG shirt. Not convinced it is the right look for London right now. 010
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 05/05/2026giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...giftarticle.ft.comVodafone to take full control of UK mobile operator in £4.3bn dealCK Hutchison’s decision to sell 49% stake is latest in series of Hong Kong conglomerate’s asset disposals 010
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 02/05/2026You Have No Idea How Much You Still Use BlackBerry www.wsj.com/tech/blackbe...wsj.comYou Have No Idea How Much You Still Use BlackBerryOnce left for dead, the company is making money again with hidden software in 275 million cars. You use it every day without knowing it. 020
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 01/05/2026Slightly intrigued by the aim of the O2 Satellite ad campaign. TV + billboard ads (so not cheap), but service is only on 3 handsets (cheapest is £600). Must be purely about a hoped-for halo effect. What am I missing? 063
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 08/04/2026It means Gamma's share price is back to the level of three weeks ago. 000
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 08/04/2026Big jump in Gamma share price: up 20%+ in the past few days. It confirmed yesterday that it was in preliminary discussions with "a number of interested counterparties" 100
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 30/03/2026AI chatbots might be nudging people away from the most extreme views. The shape of the curves is almost identical for all of the AI engines. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... 010
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 25/03/2026Community Fibre's take up of homes passed is 32%. VMO2's share of homes addressable is just under 31%. Another sign of the success of disruptors (even if arguably an unfair comparison). 010
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 25/03/2026VMO2 or Community Fibre: which has the highest fixed broadband take-up rate? I'll post answer later (or you can find it here). www.analysysmason.com/research/con...analysysmason.comLarge operators should not be complacent about Digi's entry into the UK marketPromising underlying conditions mean that Digi’s acquisition of Whyfibre deserves closer attention than its small scale might initially suggest. 100
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 23/03/2026Digi buys stake in UK fibre company. Potentially very significant. /https://www.digi-communications.ro/en/see-file/DIGI_Current_Report-Acquisition-shareholding-in-Whyfibre-UK.pdf 000
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 22/03/2026Poste Italiane launches €10.8bn bid for Telecom Italia giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Poste Italiane launches €10.8bn bid for Telecom Italiagiftarticle.ft.comPoste Italiane launches €10.8bn bid for Telecom ItaliaItaly’s state-controlled postal service is hoping to become a key player in Italian and Brazilian telecoms markets 000
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 19/03/2026I saw this Tensor and a Wayve on my ride to work this morning. No Waymo though, so no full house. 010
Reposted by Tom RebbeckThe Guardian @theguardian.com · 13/03/2026High court claimant was fed answers through his smart glasses, judge findstheguardian.comHigh court claimant was fed answers through his smart glasses, judge findsWitness statements by Laimonas Jakštys ‘were clearly prepared by others’, insolvency judge rules A claimant was being fed answers through his smart glasses while giving evidence in the high court in London, a judge has found. Laimonas Jakštys was “untruthful in denying his use of the smart glasses” and his witness statements “were clearly prepared by others”, the insolvency judge Raquel Agnello KC ruled. Continue reading... 24940
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 12/03/2026Well, it's one way to accelerate AI adoption. FCC "proposed new rules that could require phone, internet & cable companies to disclose an agent’s location, cap the share of such calls with overseas agents & give consumers the option to be served by a U.S.-based agent." www.wsj.com/business/tel...wsj.comThe FCC Wants Your Next Customer Service Agent to Be in the U.S.The federal agency is floating a set of rules requiring companies to offer U.S.-based representatives and cap the volume of calls handled overseas. 130
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 05/03/2026I’m not sure, but I suspect Starmer couldn’t quite match this. 010
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 05/03/2026Interesting long read on the SpaceX IPO. "SpaceX is an extraordinary success story, but a great company and a well-structured IPO are not the same thing." giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...giftarticle.ft.comSpaceX: the final frontier of IPOsCan Elon Musk’s moonshot deliver the mooted $1.75tn valuation? 010
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 04/03/2026Ziff Davis sold Ookla and other assets for $1.2bn. Before the deal, Ziff Davis's market cap was $1.05bn. Someone did very well out of this deal. www.wsj.com/business/tel...wsj.comZiff Davis to Sell Connectivity Division to Accenture for $1.2 BillionThe company said that the division, which includes Ookla’s Speedtest, Ekahau, Downdetector and RootMetrics brands, generated $231 million in revenue last year. 000
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 03/03/2026Is Orange being realistic about competition? Or complacent? Short piece on the premium vs low-cost debate. www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-pr...linkedin.comHow premium is premium?How big is the premium segment — and how much more can operators really charge for it? Orange held its capital markets day in mid‑February 2026. The session was well received: JP Morgan even described... 010
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 02/03/2026"We compete in a market with convergent offers at EUR11 with our FMC ARPU of EUR52 and we have been able to remain stable” So many questions on this. How long do they expect to charge 5x more than competitors? (The data is also wrong - Digi's share of revenue is already 11%, & growing fast) 000
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 02/03/2026Bit late, but catching up on Orange's capital markets day. They were asked about competition in Spain. Low-cost players were dismissed "They are addressing a segment that in terms of revenue is probably not higher than 10-15%" Digi "has a revenue share of probably not more than 5% in the country" 100
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 02/03/2026Share price changes on an operator-by-operator basis, so far in 2026. (For comparison, the S&P500 is up 0.3% so far this year.) 010
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 02/03/2026The HALO doesn't seem to be slipping, at least based on the share price. Very big gains across pretty much all operators so far in 2026 (except in Asia). 110
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 27/02/2026Watching (or trying to) the Orange Capital markets day. Lots of discussion about the quality of their services, and yet the video keeps glitching. Not the best look. (I don't think it is my internet - everything else works fine) 010
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 27/02/2026It is the flip of the telco to techco, which I thought was largely nonsense. Even real tech companies didn't call themselves techcos, and operators have few similarities with Google or Apple or Microsoft. 020
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 27/02/2026I've not heard any discussion of telecoms as a HALO stock, but telecoms (at least, telecoms networks/wholesale) has a lot of its characteristics: asset-heavy, low obsolescence (hard to replace with code), high barriers to entry, and providing an essential function www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...wsj.comWall Street’s Latest Bet Is on ‘HALO’ Companies With AI ImmunityDeere and McDonald’s have become darlings to investors worried about broad AI disruption. 210
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 26/02/2026Interesting that this has been developed with StarHub. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... English Premier League to launch streaming service in international shake-upgiftarticle.ft.comEnglish Premier League to launch streaming service in international shake-upOnline platform will be available in Singapore next season and could be rolled out to other overseas markets 010
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 26/02/2026O2 Satellite will work with a curious mix of services. Lots of weather apps. And does anyone still use Yahoo Mail? 100
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 25/02/2026Pile ‘em high and sell ‘em cheap. Digi’s quarterly investor calls always worth a listen. When asked about prices in Portugal: “We have no intention to do any price increases...becoming profitable is just a matter of volume. It is not a matter of price.” Words that will thrill its competitors. 030
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 23/02/2026Is the telecoms sector losing its religion? This and other topics discussed in this podcast on Analysys Mason research priorities for 2026. analysysmason.podbean.com/e/analysys-m...analysysmason.podbean.comAnalysys Mason’s research topics for 2026 | Analysys Mason PodcastIn this podcast, Research Partners Caroline Gabriel, Chris Baugh and Tom Rebbeck discuss the key topics that we will cover in our research in 2026. They explore spectrum, AI and why the telecoms indus... 000
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 19/02/2026The European Commission wants European Champions in the telco sector. Liberty Global, meanwhile, plans to move in the opposite direction and spin Ziggo out from the group. www.libertyglobal.com/wp-content/u...libertyglobal.com 000
Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 19/02/2026“promotion to leadership positions would require “regular adoption” of AI” giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Accenture combats AI refuseniks by linking promotions to log-insgiftarticle.ft.comAccenture combats AI refuseniks by linking promotions to log-insConsulting firms use ‘carrot and stick’ with some senior staff less willing to use technology than junior colleagues 030