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Tom Rebbeck

@tomrebbeck.bsky.social
203 followers 272 following 194 posts

Partner, Analysys Mason, focused on telecoms services.

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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 17h
Interesting to see just how important physical sales are in the music market. (from the @economist.com)
Music revenue from 1999 to 2026 by format.
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Not sure where to start with this. "most of the work economists have put in to explain Britain’s productivity puzzle over the past 15 years was wasted." "statisticians didn't realise that when people do not answer the telephone.. they might well be on holiday." giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Why your holiday is good news for the UK
For once we should thank the Office for National Statistics for its productivity reporting
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Interesting point in WSJ article on phone prices - basically, the lack of transparency means it is easier for mobile operators to hide higher prices in new contract plans.
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
They said that AT&T, Verizon and T-Mo have revenues of $600bn, which will be news to them ($300bn is probably closer). SpaceX said that it intends to win "quite a few of their customers"
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
When asked about mobile ambitions: “we definitely intend to build out the terrestrial components...to make a true mobile service” i.e. it intends to build out an MNO.
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Starlink is “taking a localised GTM approach” which “may push down blended ARPU over time”. Not a surprise, but not something they have said before.
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
May be extra detail in the call shortly. Plenty more on SpaceX on Analysys Mason's dedicated page: www.analysysmason.com/what-we-do/p...
analysysmason.com
SpaceX: strategy, market impact and outlook
Analysys Mason's research combines detailed, expert analysis of SpaceX’s strategy, performance and long-term impact on telecoms, satellite and adjacent markets.
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Key figures on connectivity from Q2 - Revenue up to $4.3bn (from $3.3bn in Q1) - Broadband subscribers up to 12 million (+1.7m over the last quarter) - ARPU is $66 per month (stable) - EBITDA is 61% (slightly down from Q1's 64%, but still exceptionally high for a telecoms business)
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
SpaceX's figures for Q2 show continued growth in connectivity, but nothing too surprising from a quick read. AI grew a lot in the quarter (from $800m to $2.6bn). Not a surprise given the various announcements, but it means that connectivity is a smaller share of total revenue (55% vs 69% in Q1)
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
Fun times. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Xavier Niel becomes largest Vodafone shareholder
French billionaire purchases stake from Emirati group e& in move to bolster European telecoms businesses
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
Satellite, satellite, satellite, satellite. First four telecoms stories on the WSJ today.
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
“Investors are now demanding a yield of almost 9 per cent to hold the company’s long-dated debt.” Ouch giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Virgin Media O2 bonds slide as broadband rivals squeeze cash flow
giftarticle.ft.com
Virgin Media O2 bonds slide as broadband rivals squeeze cash flow
Telecoms group’s bonds tumble as altnets take market share and investors fret over £2bn Netomnia deal
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Starlink will act rationally to grow revenue + subscribers (but it may not look rational to others). Starlink can cut ARPUs lower (potentially much lower where it has spare capacity), and that could disrupt terrestrial operators. www.analysysmason.com/research/con...
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
"Jio could file a draft prospectus for its expected $4bn IPO with India’s capital markets regulator within days" giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Mukesh Ambani’s Jio set to file for IPO as hopes grow for end to India’s listings drought
Iran war has hit country’s equity market and disrupted what was positioned to be another record year for flotations
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Apropos of nothing: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine” Benjamin Graham.
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Neither Vodafone UK or EE have any basic non-smartphones on sale (from a quick look at their sites). Seems odd to me; lots of parents don’t want a smartphone for their kids. Why don’t they offer this? Not enough demand? Something else?
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Not much of a surprise - I suspect this all comes down to price as the fit is obvious. I wonder if it is actually VodafoneThree bidding, or Vodafone Group. Presumably simpler for Group rather than through the unwinding JV. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
VodafoneThree bids for TalkTalk consumer business
Acquisition would help UK’s largest mobile operator fulfil ambition to double its broadband business
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Goldman Sachs expects SpaceX’s AI revenue to increase 100-fold by 2030 “Goldman is expecting SpaceX’s revenue from its Starlink satellite internet service to be $144bn in 2030” So bigger than Verizon in 4 years time. Hmm. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Goldman Sachs expects SpaceX’s AI revenue to increase 100-fold by 2030
Projections by Wall Street bank underpin the $1.78tn valuation group is pitching in IPO
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Went camping this weekend, same place as in 2025. Last year, there was no coverage. This year I got 2 bars. The D2D opportunity is shrinking fast.
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
I saw a kid in the park yesterday wearing a MAGA hat and a PSG shirt. Not convinced it is the right look for London right now.
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Vodafone to take full control of UK mobile operator in £4.3bn deal
CK Hutchison’s decision to sell 49% stake is latest in series of Hong Kong conglomerate’s asset disposals
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 02/05/2026
You Have No Idea How Much You Still Use BlackBerry www.wsj.com/tech/blackbe...
wsj.com
You Have No Idea How Much You Still Use BlackBerry
Once left for dead, the company is making money again with hidden software in 275 million cars. You use it every day without knowing it.
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
Slightly intrigued by the aim of the O2 Satellite ad campaign. TV + billboard ads (so not cheap), but service is only on 3 handsets (cheapest is £600). Must be purely about a hoped-for halo effect. What am I missing?
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
It means Gamma's share price is back to the level of three weeks ago.
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
Big jump in Gamma share price: up 20%+ in the past few days. It confirmed yesterday that it was in preliminary discussions with "a number of interested counterparties"
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
AI chatbots might be nudging people away from the most extreme views. The shape of the curves is almost identical for all of the AI engines. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Community Fibre's take up of homes passed is 32%. VMO2's share of homes addressable is just under 31%. Another sign of the success of disruptors (even if arguably an unfair comparison).
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
VMO2 or Community Fibre: which has the highest fixed broadband take-up rate? I'll post answer later (or you can find it here). www.analysysmason.com/research/con...
analysysmason.com
Large operators should not be complacent about Digi's entry into the UK market
Promising underlying conditions mean that Digi’s acquisition of Whyfibre deserves closer attention than its small scale might initially suggest.
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
Digi buys stake in UK fibre company. Potentially very significant. /https://www.digi-communications.ro/en/see-file/DIGI_Current_Report-Acquisition-shareholding-in-Whyfibre-UK.pdf
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
Poste Italiane launches €10.8bn bid for Telecom Italia giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Poste Italiane launches €10.8bn bid for Telecom Italia
giftarticle.ft.com
Poste Italiane launches €10.8bn bid for Telecom Italia
Italy’s state-controlled postal service is hoping to become a key player in Italian and Brazilian telecoms markets
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
I saw this Tensor and a Wayve on my ride to work this morning. No Waymo though, so no full house.
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Reposted by Tom Rebbeck
The Guardian @theguardian.com · 13/03/2026
High court claimant was fed answers through his smart glasses, judge finds
theguardian.com
High court claimant was fed answers through his smart glasses, judge finds
Witness statements by Laimonas Jakštys ‘were clearly prepared by others’, insolvency judge rules A claimant was being fed answers through his smart glasses while giving evidence in the high court in London, a judge has found. Laimonas Jakštys was “untruthful in denying his use of the smart glasses” and his witness statements “were clearly prepared by others”, the insolvency judge Raquel Agnello KC ruled. Continue reading...
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
Well, it's one way to accelerate AI adoption. FCC "proposed new rules that could require phone, internet & cable companies to disclose an agent’s location, cap the share of such calls with overseas agents & give consumers the option to be served by a U.S.-based agent." www.wsj.com/business/tel...
wsj.com
The FCC Wants Your Next Customer Service Agent to Be in the U.S.
The federal agency is floating a set of rules requiring companies to offer U.S.-based representatives and cap the volume of calls handled overseas.
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
I’m not sure, but I suspect Starmer couldn’t quite match this.
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
Interesting long read on the SpaceX IPO. "SpaceX is an extraordinary success story, but a great company and a well-structured IPO are not the same thing." giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
SpaceX: the final frontier of IPOs
Can Elon Musk’s moonshot deliver the mooted $1.75tn valuation?
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
Ziff Davis sold Ookla and other assets for $1.2bn. Before the deal, Ziff Davis's market cap was $1.05bn. Someone did very well out of this deal. www.wsj.com/business/tel...
wsj.com
Ziff Davis to Sell Connectivity Division to Accenture for $1.2 Billion
The company said that the division, which includes Ookla’s Speedtest, Ekahau, Downdetector and RootMetrics brands, generated $231 million in revenue last year.
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Is Orange being realistic about competition? Or complacent? Short piece on the premium vs low-cost debate. www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-pr...
linkedin.com
How premium is premium?
How big is the premium segment — and how much more can operators really charge for it? Orange held its capital markets day in mid‑February 2026. The session was well received: JP Morgan even described...
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
"We compete in a market with convergent offers at EUR11 with our FMC ARPU of EUR52 and we have been able to remain stable” So many questions on this. How long do they expect to charge 5x more than competitors? (The data is also wrong - Digi's share of revenue is already 11%, & growing fast)
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
Bit late, but catching up on Orange's capital markets day. They were asked about competition in Spain. Low-cost players were dismissed "They are addressing a segment that in terms of revenue is probably not higher than 10-15%" Digi "has a revenue share of probably not more than 5% in the country"
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
Share price changes on an operator-by-operator basis, so far in 2026. (For comparison, the S&P500 is up 0.3% so far this year.)
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
The HALO doesn't seem to be slipping, at least based on the share price. Very big gains across pretty much all operators so far in 2026 (except in Asia).
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
Watching (or trying to) the Orange Capital markets day. Lots of discussion about the quality of their services, and yet the video keeps glitching. Not the best look. (I don't think it is my internet - everything else works fine)
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
It is the flip of the telco to techco, which I thought was largely nonsense. Even real tech companies didn't call themselves techcos, and operators have few similarities with Google or Apple or Microsoft.
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
I've not heard any discussion of telecoms as a HALO stock, but telecoms (at least, telecoms networks/wholesale) has a lot of its characteristics: asset-heavy, low obsolescence (hard to replace with code), high barriers to entry, and providing an essential function www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...
wsj.com
Wall Street’s Latest Bet Is on ‘HALO’ Companies With AI Immunity
Deere and McDonald’s have become darlings to investors worried about broad AI disruption.
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
Interesting that this has been developed with StarHub. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... English Premier League to launch streaming service in international shake-up
giftarticle.ft.com
English Premier League to launch streaming service in international shake-up
Online platform will be available in Singapore next season and could be rolled out to other overseas markets
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
O2 Satellite will work with a curious mix of services. Lots of weather apps. And does anyone still use Yahoo Mail?
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
Pile ‘em high and sell ‘em cheap. Digi’s quarterly investor calls always worth a listen. When asked about prices in Portugal: “We have no intention to do any price increases...becoming profitable is just a matter of volume. It is not a matter of price.” Words that will thrill its competitors.
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
Is the telecoms sector losing its religion? This and other topics discussed in this podcast on Analysys Mason research priorities for 2026. analysysmason.podbean.com/e/analysys-m...
analysysmason.podbean.com
Analysys Mason’s research topics for 2026 | Analysys Mason Podcast
In this podcast, Research Partners Caroline Gabriel, Chris Baugh and Tom Rebbeck discuss the key topics that we will cover in our research in 2026. They explore spectrum, AI and why the telecoms indus...
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
The European Commission wants European Champions in the telco sector. Liberty Global, meanwhile, plans to move in the opposite direction and spin Ziggo out from the group. www.libertyglobal.com/wp-content/u...
libertyglobal.com
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Tom Rebbeck @tomrebbeck.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
“promotion to leadership positions would require “regular adoption” of AI” giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Accenture combats AI refuseniks by linking promotions to log-ins
giftarticle.ft.com
Accenture combats AI refuseniks by linking promotions to log-ins
Consulting firms use ‘carrot and stick’ with some senior staff less willing to use technology than junior colleagues
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