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Tom Parkin

@tomparkin.bsky.social
800 followers 258 following 202 posts

Social democrat, publisher of Data Shows, focused on shared prosperity Data Shows: tparkin.substack.com

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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
BQ-Liberal polarization in Terrebonne squeezes Conservatives and NDP Low Conservative support de-polarizes Toronto ridings, lets NDP rebound Here’s the hard data analysis on Monday’s three by-elections: open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
By-elections: Conservative crash, some NDP rebound, LPC wins it all
BQ-Liberal polarization tightens in Terrebonne, but Conservative collapse depolarizes Toronto races, helping the NDP.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Another month of jobs losses in Ontario But this time jobs in manufacturing and construction were only slightly down The jobs carnage shifted to workers in schools and stores open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
Ontario lost 5,800 more jobs in March as losses shift to service sector
Shocks and cuts to schools, colleges and universities have reduced education sector employment by nearly 10 per cent.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
Sales at Canadian bars are down, starting when cannabis was legalized. Sales at table-service restaurants are down since the inflation wave of 2022. Are we losing public socializing spaces? And is this connected to the loneliness and unhappiness Canadians report? open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
Less time at bars and restaurants: a cause or symptom of Canadian unhappiness?
Statistics Canada data shows a decline in bar sales and a hike in fast-food purchases.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
UCP’s $10B deficit, driven by 41% drop in expected royalties, hits Albertans even as oil companies pump record levels of crude substack.com/@tparkin/not...
substack.com
Tom Parkin (@tparkin)
UCP’s $10B deficit, driven by 41% drop in expected royalties, hits Albertans even as oil companies pump record levels of crude
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
Danielle Smith is using outright lies to blame UCP cuts on immigrants and Ottawa Her increasingly radical UCP will echo them to further their separatist and racist agenda — and distract people from UCP wasting the Alberta advantage. tparkin.substack.com/p/danielle-s...
tparkin.substack.com
Danielle Smith's excuse for cuts is lies built on lies
Increasingly radical UCP blames immigrants and Ottawa for their own failures.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
The “predictable, long-term” $30B Transit Fund was announced in 2024. But in Carney’s first budget it disappeared. Turns out it was merged into another fund, cut by $5B, renamed and promoted as a new “generational investment” open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
As transit recovery stumbles, Carney budget cut support $5B, FCM learns
For second time the Carney Liberals caught playing shell games to cover cuts.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
Ontario still has the highest tuition fees, despite a multi-year freeze, which the Ford PCs ended last week open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
Ontario universities still most expensive despite PCs' cut and cap
Skyrocketing average tuition under the Ontario Liberals helped Ford PCs win in 2018.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
Sponsorship aftermath: political waves Scandal broke traditional Quebec voting, creating conditions for political waves — Layton’s NDP in 2011, Legault’s CAQ in 2018 Full interview on YouTube and podcast
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
The rise and crushing fall of François Legault, with political analyst Karl Bélanger And, Nikki and Tom discuss Danielle Smith’s help for Jeff Rath’s separation referendum and the backlash on Jimmy Pattinson on news of a deal with Trump’s ICE youtu.be/hZfzoQxBvBw?...
youtu.be
Facing obliteration, Quebec's Legault quits
YouTube video by Left East to West
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 31/01/2026
Canada’s Defence and Trump Left East to West — watch on YouTube or listen wherever you get podcasts
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 31/01/2026
This week: Canada’s defence in the Trump era Feature interview with David Pugliese award-winning defence reporter and author Left East to West is your weekly check-in across Canada and interviews for people who build this country On YouTube and everywhere you get podcasts youtu.be/_zJD4Ss23JU?...
youtu.be
Canada's defence in the Trump era -- with guest David Pugliese
YouTube video by Left East to West
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Reposted by Tom Parkin
John Richmond @johnprichmond.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
I guess I should not have been surprised at how really good this podcast is. In a busy field of commentary, Tom and Niki stand out. The analysis you won't get anywhere else.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
CNL? The small nuclear nuclear reactors?
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
Thanks — please share to help others find us!
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
Canada’s defence in the Trump era Releasing Monday, our Canada check-in and feature interview with defence reporter and author David Pugliese Find Left East to West on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
Introducing Left East to West podcast. Subscribe for your weekly check-in across Canada and interviews for people building this country Launches Monday on YouTube and all the places you find podcasts open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
Introducing ... Left East to West
A podcast with Nikki Hill and me, a check-in across the country and interviews for people building Canada.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
Trading canola for cars further weakens manufacturing, which has been left to wither for years Unless we want all the stuff we buy to be made in USA or China, provinces need value-adding plans and Ottawa needs to back them But Ontario has no plan open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
Carney-China deal another blow to value-adding jobs
Trading canola for cars is a deal for a dependant colony not an advanced economy.
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Reposted by Tom Parkin
John Richmond @johnprichmond.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
Love Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social and the fearless dive he does into the numbers. I'm finishing my contract in Ontario and headed home to BC because the work has dried up. I'll miss my patients, families and colleagues. 💔
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
Toronto’s road safety changes are paying off Traffic fatalities fell to the lowest level in 14 years in 2025, except 2020 COVID, led by a big drop pedestrian deaths, down more than half open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
Traffic deaths down 46% as Toronto makes road safety changes
At 21 of the 42 deaths, 2025 had the fewest people killed while pedestrians since 2011.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
In 1985, US Coast Guard Ship Polar Sea travelled from Greenland to Alaska through Canada’s Arctic without requesting Canadian permission Canadians were stunned. But it led to a treaty in 1988. Will Trump respect it? open.substack.com/pub/parkint/...
open.substack.com
1988: deal reached after US Coast Guard trip through Canada's Arctic stirs controversy
The United States has never recognized Canada's Arctic sovereignty. History shows it takes a long time to build the capacity to project sovereignty, much less to infringe on it.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
Doug Ford’s idea of protecting jobs is pouring out a bottle of whisky made by Canadian workers using Canadian-grown ingredients This explains why Ontario has the second worst unemployment rate in Canada open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
Ontario jobless hits 7.9% despite Doug Ford pouring out some Crown Royal
Canadian solidarity against Trump undermined as Ontario Premier attacks Manitoba jobs in exchange for a TV stunt that won't save a single Ontario job.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
In 1988 the U.S. agreed it would seek permission to transit Canada’s Arctic after the USCG Polar Sea crossed without any request in 1985, raising a storm Will that 1988 deal hold as Trump threatens Canada and Denmark’s Greenland? open.substack.com/pub/parkint/...
open.substack.com
1988: deal reached after US Coast Guard trip through Canada's Arctic stirs controversy
The United States has never recognized Canada's Arctic sovereignty. History shows it takes a long time to build the capacity to project sovereignty, much less to infringe on it.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
In 1988 the U.S. agreed it would seek permission to transit Canada’s Arctic after the USCG Polar Sea crossed without any request in 1985, raising a storm Will that 1988 deal hold as Trump threatens Canada and Denmark’s Greenland? open.substack.com/pub/parkint/...
open.substack.com
1988: deal reached after US Coast Guard trip through Canada's Arctic stirs controversy
The United States has never recognized Canada's Arctic sovereignty. History shows it takes a long time to build the capacity to project sovereignty, much less to infringe on it.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
Toronto was a safer city last year. Muggings, break-ins, murder, car thefts — all down, some by LOT! It’s something to celebrate — and maybe that civic pride gives a better chance of continued improvement in 2026! open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
Good work, everyone: Toronto was safer in 2025 as crime dropped in almost all categories
Torontians were freer from muggings, swarmings, homes invasion, auto theft and many other crimes in 2025. The city's murder rate hasn't been lower in at least 20 years.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
Lives lost to opioids and stimulants have fallen for a sixth consecutive quarter up to June 30 Drug deaths are now down 44% from the crisis peak Still, nearly 2,000 died between April 1 and June 30, about 22 people a day open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
Good news: drug deaths continue decline for sixth consecutive quarter
Are interventions working? Is use declining? Or are the drugs less lethal?
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
December polls show Liberals and Conservatives down with smaller parties rising. But there was no election, was there? So are their notional gains actually bankable? open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
December polls: major parties down, small parties rise
Liberals and Conservatives are down while the NDP, Greens and Bloc Quebecois are up. But the poll respondents weren't in an election, were they?
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 30/12/2025
PBO report: Carney’s budget cuts housing investment 56%, his vaunted Build Canada Homes will increase housing supply by just 2% Pretty far from his election promise “to double the pace” of housing construction! open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
Carney budget cut housing investment: PBO report
Liberals’ vaunted Build Canada Homes program will deliver only a 2% boost to housing construction.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 29/12/2025
Urban transit ridership fell across major Canadian cities last year — why? In Toronto, the hit comes as TTC finally gets the capital investment it’s been starved of for a decade Whatever the cause, Mark Carney’s transit cut won’t help open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
As big city transit use drops, Carney Liberals cut transit capital
Failing to maintain transit equipment is a sure way to ensure people don't take transit.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 24/12/2025
GDP dropped 0.3% in October, the sixth month of decline in the first 10 months of 2025 GDP in Oct was $1.3B lower than January. We are in a recession, but the months of contraction are more spread out than the technical definition open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
October GDP decline shows bite marks of Trump’s attack
Tariffed sectors headed down in October along with residential construction and retail, the warning bell of too few Canadians with money to spend.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
Conservatives lead among working class and poor voters, polls show But perhaps is it less a vote for the Conservatives than a Not Liberal vote — and the Conservative Party holds a monopoly on that? open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
Conservative Party leads among working class and poor voters, polls show
NDP support also skews to poor and working class Canadians, but at much lower levels, while Liberal Party dominate among middle class, affluent and university-educated.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
Poilievre consistently points away from the real sources of working families’ worries He pointed at the carbon tax for inflation, at foreign workers for unemployment and costly housing Then the Liberals cut both. But working families’ worries weren’t fixed open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
Pierre Poilievre: not useful for working Canadians, data shows
He presses the prime minister to fix what aren’t the real causes of the frustrations and worries facing working families. How is that useful?
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
Trades get a lot of political attention, but in four of five major Canadian cities, almost all trades’ wages have fallen behind prices Premiers make “historic investments” in infrastructure with big numbers — but small impact for the people doing the work open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
Trades workers: politically courted, but falling behind on pay
Some premiers have been targeting trades worker votes -- but any pay hike promise keeps disappearing before Thursday.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 15/12/2025
In Ontario, building permits for condos have crashed from 4,000/month to near-zero and houses are down by half from over 2,000 What’s replacing them are corporate-owned rental, 75% of October’s units open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
Killing the homeowner option? October building permits show corporate rental apartment surge
Ontario’s October permits hit a 2025 high, though that’s not saying much. At least 75 per cent of the units are for corporate ownership.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
The average of November’s 15 public polls shows NDP (+2.7) gaining, mostly from Liberals (-1.8), while Conservatives (-3.8) lose to Others, Liberals and NDP The Liberal rightward lean may create a path for the NDP to relieve its strategic voting juggernaut open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
November polls: NDP up, Conservative down, Liberals and BQ stable
The Carney government’s rightward lean has the Liberals gaining support among past Conservative voters but losing voters to the NDP, according to our analysis of public polls released in November.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 08/12/2025
The headline on November’s jobs report was 54,000 jobs added — and the PM cheered. But union leaders weren’t celebrating. Canada lost 9,400 full time jobs in November; the entire gain was part-time work. And 26,000 workers left the job market. Not so cheery. open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
PM doesn’t help workers by cheering for weak November jobs report
Full time jobs fell. Labour force participation fell. Job gains were all part-time. PM Carney needs to be less of a topline number cheerleader.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
PM Carney was practically popping champagne bottles over last Friday’s Q3 GDP report, which showed 0.6% growth But household spending turned down, capital investment was only held up by government weapons spending and the forecast for October is lower GDP open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
Q3 GDP report brings surprise positive top number, but worrying signals underneath
Improved net imports kept GDP positive, but falling household consumption and higher capital investment arising only from a narrow increase in weapons systems is not a win.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
Ontario, closed for business While business openings outpace closings in rest of Canada, business closings lead in Ontario Construction and retail businesses closing up But stay-in-Canada vacationing maybe keeping doors open in some sectors open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
Ontario business closures up, but stay-in-Canada vacations may be keeping some doors open
Business closures are outpacing openings in Ontario construction and retailing. But in some perhaps unexpected sectors, more businesses are opening.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 20/11/2025
McPherson narrowly leads Ashton in exciting potential NDP voters, but Ashton most exciting to those who might sign-up as a member to vote, according to Pollara poll open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
McPherson, Ashton most exciting to potential NDP voters, poll shows
Ashton holds biggest sign-up potential while Lewis generates highest positive feelings among those who already "know a few things about him."
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
October was another horrible month for Ontario housing starts, pushing construction job losses to 42,000 Bit mysterious why some unions support a PC govt whose policy failure is killing their members’ jobs? open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
Job cuts the price of more Ontario housing failure in October
42,000 fewer workers were employed in construction in October than two years ago. Why does a sector hurt so damaged by bad government policy continue loyalty to the PC Party?
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
Housing prices continue to fall from a 2022 peak in most areas that fell under the housing bubble. Niagara prices are down 29.7% from 2022, Toronto is down 25.4% But in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, which escaped the bubble, price reached new peaks this summer open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
2022 housing bubble burst continues in October; prices in less affected areas trend up
The benchmark composite selling price of housing in Canadian cities was mixed in October, with prices in areas heavily affected by the 2022 bubble mostly continuing to deflate.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 17/11/2025
Toronto’s last murder was a month ago and the number this year is now less than half that in any of the past five years Murder and other major crime is dramatically and suddenly down in Toronto, police data shows What accounts for the sudden drop? open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
Toronto crime levels tumble as city marks a month since its last murder
Crime in Toronto is down in 2025. The positive trend is big and across most major crime categories.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
Doug Ford deflects about crime-on-bail though he’s the one creating longer bail times and has no bail-check program There’s strong electoral and democratic reasons Marit Stiles’ NDP should counter-attack Ford’s bail deflections open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
Ontario bail time grows unchecked due to trial delays
Doug Ford deflects responsibility for crime-on-bail onto judges and federal politicians, but it's his own trial delays that are putting more people on bail.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
Workers pay, unsafe bosses get away Though workplace deaths have increased, court prosecutions under the Ontario Occupational Health and Safety Act has dropped by half under PCs open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
Workers pay price as Ford PCs drop workplace safety enforcement
The number of workplace fatalities is up, but charges under the Occupational Health and Safety Act have fallen by half.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
Doug Ford was celebrating these Oct employment numbers: - 14,700 full-time jobs cut - 20.7 million fewer hours worked The unemployment rate decline was completely due to a big increase in part-time work He is an unaffordable jobs disaster open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
Ontario lost full-time jobs in October, but jobless rate fell on more part-time work
In October, Ontario lost 14,700 full time jobs and total hours worked fell by 20.7 million hours.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
After 10 months of Trump, where are federal and provincial Buy Canada provisions? Saw mill and steel mill workers lose jobs and billions in subsidies pay to counter Trump’s economic force against Canada But in August, $1.2B in lumber and steel was imported open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
Sawmill and steel workers lose jobs while Canada imports over $1.2B a month in steel and lumber
After 10 months of Trump, still no Buy Canada or Buy Ontario provisions giving priority to Canadian-made products.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
After 10 months of Trump the PM still has no Buy Canadian plan and he talks about “generational” projects that won’t get shovels into dirt for years Where is urgency for the 1.5 million Canadians unemployed today? open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
Carney speech offers little to 1.5 million Canadians unemployed today
From his heights in the stratosphere, Carney is not seeing the 1.5 million Canadians without a paycheque today.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
The federal NDP can build on two popular provincial governments, four official oppositions and 195 legislators A new federal leader who is an asset to them — defeating Danielle Smith along the way — makes them allies in building the federal NDP open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
Next federal NDP leader will build on provincial strength, or make things worse
A federal leader who helps re-elect NDP governments and turn NDP oppositions leaders into NDP premiers will build the federal better and faster. And get rid of Danielle Smith.
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
Poilievre’s wrong that population growth is causing unemployment — pop growth was under 1% last year But you can’t fight feelings with facts Can that feeling be displaced with social solidarity? Do demands for jobs and growth create feelings of unity in diversity? open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
Poilievre, wrong on facts again, this time about jobs
He’s weak on facts. But strong on feelings. Destructive ones. Can a jobs focus be a counter-feeling?
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
Workers pay the price for Doug Ford having no jobs plan 47,000 Ontario jobs vanish in September and unemployment rate continues its two year rise hitting 7.9% Workers are leaving the labour market as jobs in manufacturing, construction and retail shrink open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
Ontario workers walloped, 47,000 jobs gone in September, jobless rate hits 7.9%
While BC, Alberta and Manitoba enjoyed jobs growth, others had moderate job losses, Ontario workers paid a hard price with 47,000 fewer jobs
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Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
You pay for PCs dropping 338,000 Highway Traffic Acf charges, double the number from ten years ago 42% of stunt driving charges got dropped. 32% of charges for driving with a suspended licence dropped open.substack.com/pub/tparkin/...
open.substack.com
Ontarians pay as PCs' backlogged courts drop 338,000 traffic safety charges
Millions in lost fine revenue. Millions spent to process and prepare cases that never get decided — because of a backlogged court system. Guess who pays!
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