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The odds of there being a President Ossoff at some point feel quite high...

Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

The inability to create useful incentives is basically how we've broken the economy. In sectors like farming, we've destroyed return on investment by boosting asset prices through lax taxation but destroyed profit through excessive tax on income.

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

It's not clear to me that the Tories really see themselves as a middle class party anymore. At least not in any substantive way. bsky.app/profile/tomh...

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Nice. What are your thoughts on the midterms? Hopeful?

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ironeconomist.bsky.social @ironeconomist.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

In the simplest and most reductive way, the Uk political class seems to have resolved to pay 4% of gdp a year to investors to avoid raising taxes by 2% if gdp a year. It sounds mental when you put it like that but that’s actually the situation.

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

True. But it depends what the counterfactual is. £100k into a Stocks and Shares ISA and and down payment on a house at 20 gets you a LONG way!

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

I think it depends where you are in the pecking order and what school we're talking about. If you're upper middle class, or just regular rich I agree with John. If you a large multi-millionaire and it gets your kid into Eton to mingle with the real power elite that's a different thing.

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Depending on how it's designed a PT would/could royally screw me personally as I live in a small house in an expensive area (w mega mortgage!) But the Gov has got to get its income from somewhere & there's a strong case that in the UK income is taxed too highly & unearned property gains too lightly.

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

I feel like we're going round in circles. :) If you're not going to means test at least an element of it, then you'd either need to raise it (at some other cost elsewhere) or leave some vulnerable people who have not made private provision very exposed.

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

So you'd have a larger State Pension (since it's obviously not enough to live on by itself) but no incentivises for private provision? That's a reasonable argument, but as per my previous I suspect the risk is that it'd skew power/risk control much more towards the Gov & disincentivise investment.

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Or are you saying that the universal element should be more so that the safeguards aren't needed? Or that we should dispense with the safeguards anyway?

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Aren't we saying the same thing then? My own view is that we should probably have a Universal State Pension, probably at it's current value, with incentivised private pensions and safeguards/pension credits for those unable to make additional private provision.

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

I agree with that. But IMO, it probably does necessitate a degree of means testing since some people will have been unable/unwilling/incapable of making private provision themselves.

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

- It encourages additional private forms of saving that have the potential to provide pools of capital for investment in British business and infrastructure (although, I don't think we're doing that very well atm).

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

- It provides for a degree of freedom and optionality in terms of how much you pay in vis-a-vis other forms of saving, and when you retire. - Debateable perhaps, but differential wages arguably provide incentives to work more/harder/longer that a completely flat rate system.

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

We could shift to a larger state-backed approach, but probably not whilst also maintaining the hybrid system. IMV some of the benefits of the hybrid system are: - It shares responsbility/risk between the individual and the States, without letting one or the other completely dominate.

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

It's a side note, but there's a political discussion to be had re what type of pension system we actually want. At the moment, we have a hybrid system where part of it comes in the form of benefits and part of it is intended to be acquired privately, having been incentivised with tax relief.

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Oh God, I'm going to have to vote Labour at the next election aren't I? :)

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Pension tax relief was introduced in 1921. I agree that auto-enrollment came late, but that was largely needed because of the demise of Defined Benefit pensions (which mainly affected younger Gen X/older millennials). Granted there was obviously a major historical disadvantage based on gender tho.

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Apples and oranges, that. The UK operates a hybrid system where the State Pension is intended to provide a floor and that workers are expected to also make provision through private means (and incentives). We come out much better that's factored in.

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

I think that's because under Thatcher, the voters of the time voted for lower taxes and lower State Pension provision.

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Admittedly an AI calc, so take with a massive pinch of salt, but I asked it how much the median retirees' would get if their NI contributions had have been invested and they got out what they paid in. The answer was that they'd be worth about half to a third as much as the State Pension.

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

A well designed Property Tax could do it. But you'd need to make it income tax deductible if you wanted to avoid clobbering workers at the same time.

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Maybe. I like the logic & intention behind universalism but to do it properly you'd have to engage in proper tax reform (which I'd also support). But I don't underestimate how hard that is to do politically; Burnham's played the Social Care card well, but there's a legit reason politicians are wary.

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Agree that there are strong arguments for Universalism. However, taking Rachel's post I also think it's reasonable to question whether continuously hiking millionaires' State Pensions relative to workers' earnings is the best use of taxpayers funds - especially given current fiscal constraints.

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Chart from the referenced FT article.

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Given that our standard of governance seems to be on the up, and France's looks on the way down it'll be interesting to see how the yields of UK gilts compare to those of France's over the medium term. (Ours are currently about 5.4% against France's 4.7%).

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Indeed. There's a reasonable progressive argument that the focus should be on enhanced pension credit for poorer pensioners rather than defending the triple lock.

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

I need to watch this speech. If it's even close to the truth, I've continued to underestimate Burnham. Feels hopeful.

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Yeah, this is the fundamental problem which is why it'd generally rise in real terms.

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

I think the key thing they'd need to do, ironically, is to become more Orange Book. Labour seems to be governing competently now but it's notable that all the big noises they're making relate to spending more money rather than growing the economy (operating from their safe space).

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Jim Pickard @pickardje.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

as a satire on so-called late stage capitalism how could one beat investors pouring a trillion into a company offering to wipe out humankind

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

To me the question is what happens when someone/a party decides they want to run on a One Nation style platform. Lib Dems are almost there, I guess but in a similarly reluctant/clunky way. Having and making a coherent case seems to be out of fashion these days.

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Potentially easier for them than The Tories or Reform (at least so far). I genuinely don't know how Reform could possibly rule on its platform - most of their proposals hit their core vote fastest and hardest.

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Sounds lovely David. Hope all is well. X

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Ossof's ruled out running for the Presidency no? Or do you think he's just bluffing/might change his mind?

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

The Ed Stone rocks in comparison.

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Does anyone else buy American cars anyway (I know I could look this up). The perception is basically this, no?

static.klipy.com

Mario Movie: Toad's Monster Truck

ALT: Mario Movie: Toad's Monster Truck

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Between Musk and Thiel, PayPal was like the original horcrux huh?

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Also in job applications tbh. The last job I posted literally had x10 the number of applications and took >x10 to process them. My suspicion is that the effort to avoid that's going to create a powerful incentive to draw candidates from one's network, which would be terrible for social mobility.

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

You see this in Planning too. AI has the power to create NIMBYism on steroids.

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

So we're now in a position where voters who'd have probably voted Thatcher in the past, are voting Labour and voters who'd probably have voted Labour in the past are voting Reform. And the parties can't work out how to make consistent policy out of that.

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

iii) Education working to make Graduates more socially liberal than the upper middle professionals of the past. Labour would probably have an easier time of it ruling as a Liberal party rather than a Socialist one, but it can't bring itself to do that for genuine identity related reasons.

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

...rather than an economic cohort (working age professionals). ii)Mega rich (eg Musk et al) getting frustrated with having to pay/accommodate 'the managerial class' and thinking appealing to the cultural politics of the working class will be cheaper (it won't be, at least not in a stable fashion)...

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Tom Hill @tomhill.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

To me, the thing that's happened is that the Working and Middle classes have effectively switched parties, and neither Party really knows what to do with it. An over simplification but the cause of that is probably threefold: i) The Tories tying themselves to a generational cohort (the Boomers)...

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