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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 17h

High solar wind speeds (>630 km/s), an M6.49 flare (1500 UTC), the arrival of a CME (1516 UTC), a very high interplanetary magnetic field strength (40.7 nT) with a southern orientation (-23.6 nT), plus a G1 geomagnetic storm—these events are occurring simultaneously. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

This weekend geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled (Kp 0–3), with occasional active to stormy periods (Kp ≥4), likely late SUN, early MON. Solar activity has continued to increase, the risk of solar flares remains moderate (M55% X10%). #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Geomagnetic activity will initially be mostly quiet to unsettled. The three (!) CMEs expected today and Sunday will cause geomagnetic activity to active to stormy levels (Kp 4–5), with the possibility of even stronger stormy phases. Further M-class flares are likely. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly quiet at first. However, there is a small chance that a CME will arrive overnight, which could lead to an increase in activity. The risk of solar flares is moderate (M40% X05%). Moderate to good DX conditions. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Geomagnetic conditions are mostly quiet, with some unsettled periods. Solar activity has been at a moderate level over the past 24 hours (two minor M-class flares). Further eruptions are possible (M45% X05%). The ionosphere is slowly returning to normal. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

The fast solar winds (> 500 km/s) are expected to continue through Monday before gradually weakening on Oct 6. Geomagnetic activity will initially be mostly active to stormy (Kp 4–5). The solar flux is moderate (<100), the flare risk is very low (M05% X01%). #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

The predicted CME grazed the Earth last night, with no further impact on wave propagation. Geomagnetic activity is now mostly quiet (Kp 0-2). The next phase of stronger solar wind is expected this weekend (Kp 4–5). The risk of solar flares is very low (M05% X01%). #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

A CME could graze the Earth within the next 36 hours, likely in the early morning (UTC) of OCT 2. Geomagnetic activity will be mostly quiet until then, but will be unsettled to active—and possibly stormy—when the CME arrives. The risk of solar flares is low (M15% X01%). #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Solar wind speeds are at background levels. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly quiet, though there is a slight chance of isolated periods of instability. Flare activity is low (M10% X01%). A CME warning is in effect for Friday. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Geomagnetic activity will increase, which will have a negative impact on the lower frequency bands. The MUF may decrease. And radio communications via the polar caps will be severely attenuated.

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

According to the WSA-ENLIL model (fig.), a CME is expected to graze the Earth late Friday afternoon and lead to increased geomagnetic activity. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly quiet, possibly with isolated, unsettled periods. However, a CME that occurred on 28/1430 UTC could graze the Earth on OCT 1–2 and trigger geomagnetic activity. Until then, condx will be close to monthly forecast. (2/2) #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

A sunspot region with a simple magnetic configuration is visible on the solar disk. Flare activity is expected to remain low over the next few days, with a low probability of M-class flares (M10% X01%). The solar flux continues to range between 90 and 100 units. (1/2) #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The solar wind from coronal holes is slowly subsiding. Geomagnetic activity is therefore mostly quiet (Kp 0–2). Only C-class flares are currently expected (M10% X01%). The solar flux has once again fallen below 100 units. DX condx range from fair to moderately good. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Coronal holes are producing mildly elevated solar wind (~470 km/s), leading to unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions (Kp 3–4) and a chance of minor storming (G1/Kp 5) through SEP 27, then calming by SEP 28. No CMEs are expected. Flare risk is low (M10% X01%). #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Geomagnetic activity is mostly variable to active (Kp 3–4), with occasional weak magnetic storms (Kp 5) possible. The risk of solar flares remains low (M20% X01%); the 30-, 20-, and 17-meter bands are generally suitable for DX. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

This coronal hole in the southwestern part of the Sun's visible face will cause propagation disturbances on the shortwave bands from Wednesday into Thursday due to fast solar winds. Credit: NASA/SDO/AIA #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Geomagnetic activity will be quiet to unsettled (Kp 0–3) until the expected arrival of the fast winds from a coronal hole. Later, active phases are likely, with the possibility of magnetic storms (Kp 5–6). The risk of solar flares remains low to moderate (M20% X01%). #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected today. Tomorrow evening will become more active. The risk of solar flares is low (M10% X01%). Sunspot number and solar flux have increased. Combined with the Russell-McPherron effect, this could lead to isolated auroras. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Geomagnetic activity is mostly quiet (Kp 0–2). Sunspots are reappearing; there are six now. The solar flux has once again exceeded 100. The outlook: Little change is expected in the coming days. For DXers, 20 to 15m is the place to be in the daytime and 30/40m at night. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Solar wind speeds are slightly elevated, with the influence of a coronal hole waning. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet (Kp 1–2). The side of the Sun facing us is spotless. During the day, 20/17m are the favorite DX-bands, at night, 40m remains open. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Solar wind speeds are currently at a slightly elevated level, but a gradual downward trend is expected. Geomagnetic activity is therefore expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled (Kp 1–3). The flux has fallen below 100. The risk of solar flares is very low (M05% X01%). #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Although disruptions from CH HSS and CMEs are still possible, geomagnetic activity is mostly quiet to unsettled (Kp 1–3), the risk of solar flares is very low (M05%, X01%), and the solar flux has dropped to 100. This trend is expected to continue over the next few days. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Geomagnetic activity is expected to range from unsettled to active (Kp 3–4), and the combination of fast solar wind and CMEs grazing the Earth will likely lead to some stronger storms. Furthermore, M-class flares are unlikely (M05% X01%). 30/20m are best for DX. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Geomagnetic activity is quiet to unsettled (Kp 2–3). However, there is a possibility for active to mild stormy activity (Kp 4–5) due to the effects of CH HSS and a CME grazing the Earth. Solar activity is low (M10% X01%), the probability of a proton storm has increased. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Storm Warning! We currently have Kp 4. This is causing disrupted conditions, especially on the lower bands. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Geomagnetic activity will initially be mostly quiet to unsettled. As the week progresses, there may be periods of active to slightly stormy activity due to coronal mass ejections (CME) and fast solar wind (HSS). The risk of solar flares remains low (M10% X01%). #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

The solar wind speed is slightly elevated. Geomagnetic activity is expected to range from quiet to unsettled. Under the increasing influence of a coronal hole, active to stormy periods could occur over the weekend. The risk of solar flares remains low (M10% X01%). #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Geomagnetic activity is mostly quiet to unsettled. No significant solar flares are expected (M10% X01%). The predicted CMEs have passed by Earth without affecting HF propagation. Conditions for DX are fair to good. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

The solar wind speed is slowly decreasing (~400 km/s). The expected CMEs could still arrive. Otherwise, geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly unsettled to active (Kp 3-4) today. Flare activity is likely to be low (M10% X01%). HF condx are slowly improving. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Due to fast solar winds reaching speeds of up to 560 km/s, geomagnetic activity is currently ranging from active to stormy. The situation will remain tense today and tomorrow as CMEs from September 5 and 6 pass by Earth. Flares are unlikely (M15% and X01%). Fair condx. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled. However, due to fast coronal winds and the effects of a passing CME, activity will increase later on. Isolated stormy periods are also possible throughout tomorrow. The risk of flares is low (M20% X01%). #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

About 15% above the projected monthly figures—the 15-m band went like clockwork today. (Graph: propquest.org) #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain quiet. However, an M1.2 flare on FRI morning suggests the possibility of further isolated M-class flares. New regions on the northeastern edge are potential sources. Overall, propagation conditions on 20 and 17 m will be good. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Geomagnetic conditions remain mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods are expected toward the evening of September 6. Solar activity is likely to remain low to moderate; M-class flares are possible (M15% X01%). No significant changes. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Last night, a single M3 flare surprised observers, originating from a new sunspot region on the northeastern edge of the Sun. Additional M-class flares are possible, but not very likely (M15% X01%). Geomagnetic activity is mainly quiet. No significant changes. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Geomagnetic activity will be mostly quiet over the next few days, with a low risk of solar flares (M10% X01%). However, the solar flux is weakening and heading toward the 100 mark. DX conditions will range from fair to good. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

Flare activity is currently low (max. 24h C2.2). It will remain low, but isolated M-class flares cannot be ruled out (M15% X01%). Geomagnetic activity will initially be quiet to unsettled, later consistently quiet. Currently, no Earth-directed CMEs are forecast. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

Today gives us a taste of what the solar minimum will be like 🙁 #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr (Source: www.propquest.org/graphs)

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

Geomagnetic activity is unsettled to active, but is slowly subsiding. Flare activity is low (M25% X05%), though there is a low but increasing probability of isolated M-class flares in the coming days. The outlook: increasing calm and an improvement in DX conditions. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

We are still awaiting the announced CMEs. Therefore, quiet geomagnetic activity will become active later on, with isolated stormy intervals likely today and tomorrow. Although the Sun remains relatively inactive, isolated M-class flares (M45% X10%) are possible. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Fast solar winds as well as at least two passing CMEs, will influence geomagnetic activity later today until late UTC Saturday (Kp 4–6). Solar flares are likely (M55% X15%). Active to stormy phases will push the MUF down (10–30%) and increase noise on the lower bands. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Geomagnetic activity is mostly quiet. Several M-class flares (AR4513) suggest that this moderate activity will continue (M55% X15%). Isolated geomagnetic storms (G1–G2) are expected early on Friday. This is caused by a combination of a coronal hole and a CME arrival. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

Geomagnetic activity will generally be quiet. Solar activity has been moderate over the past 24 hours (five M-class flares from AR4513), and the solar flux has increased. Moderate activity is expected to continue (M45% X10%). DX conditions will remain fair to good. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Solar winds will remain at low levels as the influence of coronal holes subsides. Geomagnetic activity will therefore be mostly quiet. Flare activity has been low, but given the increasing complexity of AR4513, an increase is certainly possible (M45% X10%). #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

We are influenced by weak, fast solar winds. Nevertheless, mostly calm to unsettled conditions (Kp 1–3) are expected. The risk of solar flares is moderate (M40% X10%). AR4507 is in an Earth-facing position, so a solar flare could trigger a proton storm. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

Despite fast solar winds geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled (Kp 2–3). However, there is a possibility of active periods (Kp 4). Three M-class flares have been observed in the last 24 hours. This activity is expected to continue (M40% X10%). #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

AR4513 on the eastern solar limb has already been active again today: with an M8.1 flare (20/1142 UTC) and an M3.0 flare (20/1611 UTC). Its position isn't yet Earth-facing, but things could get really exciting over the next few days. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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Tom's Daily Space Weather Report @tomdf5jl.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic activity is expected today, but active to slightly stormy periods (Kp 4–5) are also possible. A new large and active sunspot is currently forming on the eastern edge of the Sun. An M1.0 flare has already occurred there (19/1845 UTC). #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

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