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#londonclimateresiliencereview | David Shukman | 61 comments
An 'exceptional' red warning for wildfire has been issued for much of England and Wales. This is only the second time we've had this level of alert - so it's serious. It's the result of the endless heatwave coinciding with a long dry spell plus a forecast for winds to gust in from the east. Why worry? Well, the fear in firefighting circles is that the next few days may see a widespread breach of the '30-30-30' rule. If the temperature is above 30C, the relative humidity below 30% and the wind speed above 30kph, it's incredibly hard to keep fires under control. Lives are at risk, as we've just witnessed with twelve deaths in Spain. Is this really a danger here? Take a look at the video to get a sense of what's at stake. It's of the aftermath of a wildfire in Dagenham on the eastern edge of London four years ago. Who knew that London could have wildfires? That day, July 19th 2022, parks, farmland and playing fields caught alight and the flames crossed the 'rural-urban interface' to destroy homes. In Dagenham, fourteen houses were burned. Forty in all were lost across London. Modelling for my book The Response shows that this fire could easily have been far worse. The new red warning has come from the Met Office in its 'Daily Hazard Assessment'. These assessments aren't released to the public but I've seen the latest version, issued yesterday. It shows that the 'red' wildfire zone extending over very large areas of the country. Where millions of people live. Basically unaware of the danger. As I've posted before, the Ordnance Survey reckons 1.8 million homes in England are theoretically at risk from wildfire. There's a problem here. The daily Met Office warnings are shared with a body called the Natural Hazards Partnership (NHP) - a collection of emergency responders and local and national authorities. It's obviously a very helpful process and would have prompted the London Fire Brigade and others to issue their own wildfire warnings, which are invaluable. But surely the public need to be included? If in doubt, watch the video again. Conditions now aren't exactly the same as in July 2022 but the warnings cover a much bigger area. And there's a similar problem: water supplies are tight. Four years ago, London firefighters were hampered by weak pressure - a threat first highlighted by Emma Howard Boyd CBE in her #londonclimateresiliencereview and followed up by me in the book. Thanks to James Galitzine for reminding me of this 'compound' danger right now - he's a director of Map Impact which specialises in mapping heat and wildfire danger. He points out that householders are using more water so the water companies turn down the pressure to conserve supplies which...in turn...makes firefighting harder. Yesterday a fire in some shrubs beside Stratford train station in east London closed the lines.Disruption will continue till tomorrow. Let's hope that's the worst of it. Video credit: unknown. If it's yours, do let me know. | 61 comments on LinkedIn
