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Reposted by Tim Vogel

IDOS_research @idos-research.bsky.social · 15/04/2025

Trumps #Zölle treffen vor allem die Ärmsten. Die #EU sollte jetzt die #WTO stärken, Partnerschaften im Globalen Süden vertiefen & mit Gegenmaßnahmen nicht die Falschen treffen, sagen @cbrandi.bsky.social & @timvogel.bsky.social in einem neuen @table.media -Gastbeitrag: table.media/africa/stand...

table.media

Zölle gegen die Ärmsten: Warum Trumps aufgeschobene Zölle die Falschen träfen – und wie Europa reagieren kann

Trumps aufgeschobene Zölle träfen die Ärmsten, warnen zwei Entwicklungsexperten. Sie haben Empfehlungen, wie Europa reagieren kann.

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Tim Vogel @timvogel.bsky.social · 15/04/2025

🇪🇺 We argue that the EU should: •⁠ ⁠Prioritize multilateral responses, •⁠ ⁠Deepen mutually beneficial partnerships with the Global South, •⁠ ⁠Consider early reform and extension of its own GSP, •⁠ ⁠And design retaliatory measures carefully

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Tim Vogel @timvogel.bsky.social · 15/04/2025

⚠️ If the formula-based tariffs are reinstated, they would disproportionately affect some LDCs as they are based on trade balances — and LDCs tend to: •⁠ ⁠Import little from the US (These are often expensive & capital-intensive) •⁠ ⁠Export more to the US (stuff the US can’t produce [competitively])

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Tim Vogel @timvogel.bsky.social · 15/04/2025

🎉 My very first op-ed just got published in German media! In Table.Briefings, Clara Brandi and I explore the implications of Trump’s proposed “reciprocal” tariffs (for 90-days reduced to a flat additional 10% for most countries) for Least Developed Countries (LDCs).

table.media

Zölle gegen die Ärmsten: Warum Trumps aufgeschobene Zölle die Falschen träfen – und wie Europa reagieren kann

Trumps aufgeschobene Zölle träfen die Ärmsten, warnen zwei Entwicklungsexperten. Sie haben Empfehlungen, wie Europa reagieren kann.

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Tim Vogel @timvogel.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

Also some open questions, like will Pharma get their own sectoral tariffs?

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Tim Vogel @timvogel.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

𝗡𝗼 𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗽𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗲: • Nothing reciprocal about this. According to their own formula, the U.S. should lower tariffs for many countries. Instead, everyone not on the list gets the 10-percentage-point flat-rate increase. Who could have seen that coming…

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Tim Vogel @timvogel.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

𝗠𝘆 𝗯𝗶𝗴𝗴𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗽𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗲𝘀: • Russia and Belarus are absent on Trumps list, despite the U.S. running a goods trade deficit with them. The administration claims there’s “no trade due to sanctions”— is factually not true and absurd given that the Falkland Islands made the list.

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Tim Vogel @timvogel.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

The EU should see this as window of opportunity to win developing countries as partners for mutual benefits, e.g. for cooperation on critical raw materials or energy transition.

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Tim Vogel @timvogel.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

• Some developing countries, particularly in Asia, are hit hard. Some African countries with trade deficits are included, others are not. Likely, this comes down to raw materials and political considerations.

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Tim Vogel @timvogel.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

• The EU also needs to shift Trump’s perspective on trade. Yes, the EU has a goods trade surplus, but it also runs a services trade deficit with the U.S. While services aren’t easy to tariff, the Anti-Coercion Instrument might offer new ways to respond.

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Tim Vogel @timvogel.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

• The EU is speeding up trade agreements – that’s a good sign. Perhaps it has more leverage from a Trump trade FOMO (e.g., exploring closer cooperation with CPTPP) than from retaliatory tariffs alone.

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Tim Vogel @timvogel.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗱𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗺𝗲𝗮𝗻 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝗨? • Focus on more cooperation with other countries on trade and uphold rules-based trade. Getting more skin in the multilateral game should be a priority. Countries like India - hit with a 27% tariff increase and blocking WTO processes right now – should feel the same.

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Tim Vogel @timvogel.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

𝗜𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗮 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗻𝗲𝗴𝗼𝘁𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽 𝗻𝗼𝘄? • No country that tried to secure a better deal upfront actually got one. • Trump remains laser-focused on bilateral goods trade deficits, tariffs do not seem like a good instrument to change that.

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Tim Vogel @timvogel.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

Some observations from my exercise and thoughts on what this means going forward:

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Tim Vogel @timvogel.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

When I read the first posts about how the Trump administration calculated its “reciprocal tariff rates” I couldn’t believe it. So, I jumped into the spreadsheets to check for myself. By now, the formula has been confirmed. As expected, these tariffs are not “reciprocal tariffs” in the slightest.

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Tim Vogel @timvogel.bsky.social · 06/03/2025

The EU has an opportunity to position itself as a reliable partner, strengthen its economic security, and restore trust in the rules-based trading system. 🔗 Read our full argument in Global Policy Opinion: www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/06/03/2... #TradePolicy #EU #Tariffs #Multilateralism #WTO

globalpolicyjournal.com

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Tim Vogel @timvogel.bsky.social · 06/03/2025

Why not link multilateral tariff reductions to the items on the EU’s retaliation list? This could shield the EU from price hikes while reinforcing its multilateral rhetoric and proving that “open strategic autonomy” is more than just a slogan.

globalpolicyjournal.com

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Tim Vogel @timvogel.bsky.social · 06/03/2025

𝗠𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘀𝗺 𝗚𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗔𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻 🌍🤝 𝘃𝘀 𝗠𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹 𝗔𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗗𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 💥⚖️ Inspired by Richard Baldwin’s thought-provoking piece on M.A.D. in trade (lnkd.in/eYGFxdYh), Frederik Stender and I add a missing piece to the debate on how the EU could respond to Trump’s tariffs.

globalpolicyjournal.com

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Reposted by Tim Vogel

IDOS_research @idos-research.bsky.social · 06/03/2025

Frederik Stender and @timvogel.bsky.social, both @idos-research.bsky.social , argue in this opinion piece in #GlobalPolicyJournal that it is time for the EU to adopt a more proactive and self-confident approach to #trade and put ‘open strategic autonomy’ into practice. Read more: t1p.de/h3v2k

t1p.de

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Tim Vogel @timvogel.bsky.social · 28/01/2025

In our latest policy brief, we analyze the potential impacts of AGOA’s expiry if Sub-Saharan African countries have to switch to current US MFN tariff treatment. We find AGOA’s effectiveness has been limited overall, but its expiry poses risks for certain countries and key sectors.

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Tim Vogel @timvogel.bsky.social · 28/01/2025

Under President Trump’s “America First” approach, nearly every aspect of US trade policy (bit.ly/3EetSp8) and development cooperation (bit.ly/4h8agl6) is under scrutiny, further calling into question the extension of AGOA - set to expire later this year.

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Tim Vogel @timvogel.bsky.social · 28/01/2025

A swift and bold renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is needed to deliver on meaningful growth opportunities for sub-Saharan African countries — but its future has never been more uncertain. #EconSky #Development #InternationalCooperation #TradePolicy #africa #agoa

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Tim Vogel @timvogel.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

A heartfelt thank you to everyone who contributed. Special thanks to Ben Shepherd and Deborah Winkler for delivering such insightful keynote addresses! I enjoyed to see so many familiar faces but also to build new connections. Looking forward to seeing many of you next time around!

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Tim Vogel @timvogel.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

Last week, we had the privilege of welcoming over 50 researchers and practitioners to @idos-research.bsky.social in Bonn for our 2nd Africa in the Global Economy conference. It was a lively event filled with very interesting presentations and great discussions.

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Tim Vogel @timvogel.bsky.social · 14/10/2023

Life is good when you are in Florence! Many interesting discussions on non-economic objectives in trade policy between academics and policymakers at the World Trade Forum at the EUI. Also focused on the impact on developing countries and unilateral actions by the EU. #WTF2023 #EconSky

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Tim Vogel @timvogel.bsky.social · 03/10/2023

Also can second that. RAM > CPU count in my experience as an MP user.

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