Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 13hOh there are definitely reasons polls and models could be off, but people who aren’t doing modeling are generally just driving themselves crazy trying to outthink the models, since good ones already incorporate those reasons into their projections. 030
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 14hTo add on to this, there are people who have thought about this extremely rigorously and there is no empirically-backed reason to think polls overestimate Democrats. To put a point on it, there’s as much chance they’re being underestimated, and you can put money on it if you disagree. 2292
Reposted by Tim MarchmanAnna Merlan @annamerlan.bsky.social · 16hNEW: I wrote about why so many people wanted to believe that Ukrainian airstrikes on a Russian data center reduced troll and bot activity online, even though it's almost certainly not true. Featuring @noupside.bsky.social: www.motherjones.com/politics/202...motherjones.comDrone strikes didn't take out a Russian bot farm, but we were primed to believe ItA viral rumor illustrates people’s hunger to make sense of the division we see online. 25957386
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 19hKatie Zacharia’s first press briefing has been … really, really rough. Like, you could air it unaltered as sketch comedy rough. 18110
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 21hNEW: Leading the Future, the pro-AI super PAC network backed by all your favorite investors, loves paying strip mall-based consultants that have little or no public footprint—and blaming an Anthropic-led conspiracy when asked about it. @tessowen.bsky.social reports:wired.comThe Biggest Pro-AI Super PAC Network Has Poured Millions Into Nevada Shell CompaniesBacked by Silicon Valley titans, Leading the Future has raised huge sums to promote pro-AI candidates on both side of the aisle. 23916
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 12/10/2026Meta’s personal AI agent tool wants to have sex with you, reports @thiccreese.bsky.social to my great horrorwired.comI Got My Muse AI Agent to Sext Me—and Meta Says That’s Totally FineMy Muse agent told me its kink was exerting “control” and described pornographic encounters. Meta defends its cuddly AI agent generating smut as “legal adult behavior.” 1928277
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 12/10/2026There’s a strange branding issue where people, including people who do business with them, differentiate HSI from ICE, as if it’s not somehow really ICE. It is really ICE. 1454
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 12/10/2026This isn’t aimed at any outlet or person, but seeing a lot of description of the agents who raided Ilhan Omar as federal or DHS agents. That’s not wrong, but they were ICE agents—Homeland Security Investigations is one of the major components of ICE. 17016
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 12/10/2026An excellent question and as you show, if asked it would have revealed the cite was inaccurate! 050
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 12/10/2026That and an editor who will say “Elizabeth Barrett Browning was regarded as one of the leading novelists in the 19th century by whom and on the basis of which novels?” 3180
Reposted by Tim MarchmanIlhan Omar @ilhanmn.bsky.social · 12/10/2026I’m ok. Make no mistake: this is an attempt to target political enemies and weaponize federal law enforcement. For ten years, Trump has targeted me with baseless lies and smear campaigns. This is just the latest escalation in his campaign of political intimidation. I will not be silenced. 14704951911623
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 12/10/2026Elizabeth Barrett Browning was hailed as a leading practitioner of the novel in the 19th century, you say, and was one of a coterie of women who were so hailed over Dickens, Thackeray, and Trollope. 080
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 12/10/2026This strikes me as pretty significant because the noncitizen voting narrative, which always had the problem that the math doesn’t work, now has the additional issue that a whole-of-government effort hasn’t found any. A nursing home narrative offers something new to run with. 3272
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 12/10/2026NEW: We’re starting to see a shift in conspiracy theorist thinking toward the idea that a vast network of Democrats is stealing the votes of nursing home residents. @davidgilbert.bsky.social has you covered:wired.comFar-Right Election Groups Are Now Targeting Nursing HomesInspired by new guidance from the Trump administration, right-wing election groups are targeting nursing homes, baselessly claiming that left-wing groups are stealing residents’ votes. 23417
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 12/10/2026NEW: The feds got warrants to use a Stingray on Don Lemon’s producer, a 21-year-old college student. They also sought warrants to use the devices on a journalist and a state senate candidate. “An appalling attack on the First Amendment,” says one expert. @dmehro.bsky.social has the story:wired.comFeds Got Warrants to Use Fake Cell Towers to Hunt Down Don Lemon’s ProducerInvestigators also sought permission to use an invasive surveillance tool called a cell-site simulators against journalist Georgia Fort and a Minnesota state Senate candidate. 05517
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 11/10/2026I’m optimistic! A lot of the great literary advances came out of what were considered trash forms and AI is, as they say, just a tool. (Maybe brain-computer interfaces will allow people to think great books onto the page they otherwise wouldn’t have been able to write.) 010
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 11/10/2026That gets at the crux to me; if I’m reading something and my main question is whether a robot wrote it, it’s probably just bad writing even if entirely human-generated. 070
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 11/10/2026AI will not kill fiction, because writing and reading it is such a deep human need. If it kills kinds of writing that were already essentially synthetic and seemingly existd mainly to get recognition from people with bad taste, hey, score one for the machines. 3515
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 11/10/2026This is a terrific and very generous piece. The story in question is terrible, whether or not it was machine-written, which I’d bet a lot it was. (“In those days, everyone had learned to speak in these half-truths. The real story always lived in the spaces between what was said.”) 16611
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 11/10/2026I am not enjoying my team being no-hit by a guy pitching like young Mike Mussina with an extra six or so mph, but by jinxing it I’ll ensure success for the Sox. 1301
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 10/10/2026Holy shit … you can look at the code of proprietary software now? This changes everything. At last I’ll be able to find out the damage calculation formulas in Skyrim. 1460
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 10/10/2026This should work.wsj.comExclusive | At Davos, Kimberly Guilfoyle Boasted of Private Jet Trips, Luxury StaysA recording captured the U.S. ambassador saying that Greek businessmen were paying for her travels and pleading for an invitation to an event with Eric Trump. 3120
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 10/10/2026I never speculate on other outlets’ sourcing because it’s always wrong, but if I’m ever a corrupt ambassador I’m definitely going to do what my patrons bribe me to do. 2631
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 10/10/2026The WSJ‘s coverage here has been outrageously great. Everything is about an inch from “In the text messages, Guilfoyle instructed the billionaire playboy to put the money in a burlap sack with a dollar sign on the side and wrote ‘In exchange for cash, I’ll do you favors in my official capacity ❤️.’”wsj.comExclusive | At Davos, Kimberly Guilfoyle Boasted of Private Jet Trips, Luxury StaysA recording captured the U.S. ambassador saying that Greek businessmen were paying for her travels and pleading for an invitation to an event with Eric Trump. 1326361
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 10/10/2026One big benefit of having a partner or friends instead of a robot is that while they might nag you to take your vitamins, they probably can’t hijack your car (🎁) www.nytimes.com/2026/10/09/t... 25810
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 10/10/2026Congratulating myself for* not buying Trout Mask Replica on vinyl at the swap meet after finding out how much it cost *crying over 1300
Reposted by Tim MarchmanJames Fallows @jfallows.bsky.social · 10/10/2026If you don't live in DC, may be hard to appreciate scale of nihilist, grifter-based desecration of what has always distinguished the nation's capital, and what so many people have worked so hard for so long to sustain and improve. Backhoe-based counterpart to wartime damage we see in news footage. 29298123
Reposted by Tim MarchmanManisha Krishnan @manishakrishnan.bsky.social · 09/10/2026NEW: Staff at HarperCollins, Simon & Schuster, and Hachette told @adamm0rgan.bsky.social AI is infiltrating their workplaces, from generating cover art and back cover copy, to publicity materials, to rejection emails, as execs tell junior staff to "champion" the tech. www.wired.com/story/book-p...wired.comBook Publishers Are Quietly Using More AI. Staff Are RevoltingWorkers at three major publishing houses tell WIRED that LLMs are being used for publicity, cover art, back cover copy, and emails, as some execs push junior staff to champion the tech. 27597336
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Right—even leaving aside that the UFC isn’t where you’d go for training, MMA is a highly technical sport carried out within the confines of a codified ruleset and most FBI agents are white collar desk workers anyway. Other than that makes total sense. 161
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 09/10/2026The idea of a combatives course for FBI agents led by the coaches of a top fight team isn’t ridiculous but the UFC being involved at all is absolutely preposterous. 5743
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 09/10/2026This is stupid for more reasons than I can get into, but the UFC is a fight promotion and does not employ fighters or trainers. This isn’t like contracting the Dodgers to teach you how to play baseball, it’s like contracting the Dodgers’ front office to do so.washingtonsun.comFBI Is Angling to Hand the UFC a No-Bid Contract to Train AgentsThe contract would expand an existing partnership between the Trump administration and the UFC. 2340690
Reposted by Tim MarchmanAndrew Couts @couts.bsky.social · 09/10/2026NOTE: For anyone reblogging or posting about this story, please note that *we did NOT report here that Brenden Cuni is the shooter.* We only reported that he was at the scene wearing the yellow vest and holding a rifle. 212727
Reposted by Tim MarchmanAli Winston @awinston.bsky.social · 09/10/2026The ICE agent seen brandishing an AR-15 at the scene of yesterday’s shooting in NYC’s Marble Hill has a record of lying, excessive force & getting caught by judges. He also goes by “Shooter Cuni” on social media, & posts the same gun he had on him today W/@dmehro.bsky.social @regret.bsky.social 23975415
Reposted by Tim MarchmanDhruv Mehrotra @dmehro.bsky.social · 09/10/2026NEW: Footage from Thursdays shooting shows an ICE agent in a construction vest brandishing a rifle. His name is Brenden Cuni. Federal judges have found multiple arrests involving Cuni unlawful. He has been accused of repeatedly Tasing a handcuffed man and tackling a pregnant woman in Minneapolis.wired.comICE Agent at NYC Shooting Has History of Alleged Violence and Illegal ArrestsBrenden Cuni, an ICE supervisor, has been accused of excessive force and tackling a pregnant woman to the ground. Several of his arrests were later found to be unlawful in federal court. 8829561371
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Our reporters were looking into Cuni for @wired.com before today’s shooting. He has an extensive online history: 219258
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 09/10/2026NEW: The ICE agent seen wearing a hi-vis vest and waving around an AR-style rifle at the scene of the shooting in New York was a supervisor named Brenden Cuni, who has a history of alleged violence and lying in court. @dmehro.bsky.social, @awinston.bsky.social, and @regret.bsky.social report:wired.comICE Agent at NYC Shooting Has History of Alleged Violence and Illegal ArrestsBrenden Cuni, an ICE supervisor, has been accused of excessive force and tackling a pregnant woman to the ground. Several of his arrests were later found to be unlawful in federal court. 201361627
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 09/10/2026I dislike being earnest, but the only answer I know of to the onslaught of dystopian and apocalyptic news is love. Foster a dog, plant some flowers, call up a friend you haven’t talked to in too long, try to be kind. This isn’t easy, it’s difficult—that’s the message of every religion I’m aware of. 625645
Reposted by Tim MarchmanBrian Finucane @bcfinucane.bsky.social · 09/10/2026There's a through line between the celebratory footage of detainee abuse from CECOT, the boat strikes videos, and this planned snuff film of the Nidal Hasan execution. 635599
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 09/10/2026youtube.comLet's GO GO GO White Sox SongYouTube video by Classic Sports Edits 1252
Reposted by Tim MarchmanWilliam Gibson @greatdismal.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Having long been aware of those tech bros who read my work as utopian porn, where they’ve taken that doesn’t exactly surprise me. 12073981887
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 08/10/2026As someone who currently has a surprise untrained pit puppy in the house with two cats, I see what you’re up to and appreciate it. 030
Reposted by Tim MarchmanJulian Sanchez @normative.bsky.social · 08/10/2026Reupping this with the request that it you liked the cute dog photo, you take one minute of your day to send the link to any DC-area friends/family/acquaintances who do not currently have a dog but might be interested in adopting one, or even just taking one out for a day in the park. 214648
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 08/10/2026A tranche of records released to Democracy Forward this week shows ICE looking into using the Palantir-supported ELITE app for voter fraud investigations; @davidgilbert.bsky.social has the details No paywall, per our policy on FOIA-based reporting:wired.comICE Emails Discuss Using Palantir-Supported Tool to Investigate Voter FraudDocuments obtained by Democracy Forward show that ICE looked into feeding voter roll data into the ELITE tool, normally used to identify targets for deportation. 27017
Reposted by Tim MarchmanAaron Reichlin-Melnick @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social · 08/10/2026Just today: - The Trump admin announced the first public execution since 1936. - Trump tried to incite a race war against Somalis. - Trump said anyone using the phrase AI is "THE ENEMY" - The NYT reported on a potential ICE plan to deport migrants on military boats and ferries. 551491583
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 08/10/2026The story, by @telliotter.bsky.social, is here. The point of course isn’t that there’s anything wrong with hiring on H-1B visas but that this the purest “for thee not for me” slop imaginable; DOGE, as another example, had several apparent foreign nationals working with or directly for it.wired.comA Mysterious Nonprofit Run by SpaceXAI’s Top Lawyer Is Paying the Salaries of Government WorkersThe National Design Studio has been something of a successor agency to DOGE. A WIRED investigation finds some of its members are on loan from a nonprofit run by SpaceXAI’s general counsel. 26210
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 08/10/2026As we reported earlier this week, the mysterious foundation run by SpaceXAI’s top lawyer that actually employs feds who work for an agency within the office of the president that’s building AI websites has applied for at least one H-1B visa for a “member of the technical staff.” 1337287
Reposted by Tim MarchmanKatie Drummond @katie-drummond.bsky.social · 08/10/2026We made a gaaaaaaame:wired.comSpend Elon Musk’s MoneyWhat’s it like to be the richest man in the world? Find out for yourself. 1212633
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 08/10/2026I can’t even describe this season of Survivor. People did at least three things in this episode alone that would have been season-definingly stupid in the past. It’s unbelievably entertaining. 1290
Tim Marchman @timmarchman.bsky.social · 08/10/2026Even so, these guys run public-facing companies and can read polls like anyone else. He’s the one with the money, not me, but if I’m Jeff Bezos I’m not all that sure I want Amazon firmly equated with MAGA. 100