TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 16hYesterday on Polymarket, 18:00 UTC carried $4.38M of trade notional and 01:00 UTC $0.42M, about 10x apart. Trade counts differed only 2.4x (38,763 vs 16,354): the average print grew from $26 to $113. Sizing liquidity by trade count understates busy hours. Measured on the trade tape. 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 29/09/2026Yesterday 30% of Polymarket's $35.1M trade notional printed at 95¢ or higher, on 17% of trades. Only 0.4% printed at 5¢ or below. Volume counts $99 bought at 99¢ the same as $99 at 50¢, though the first has about 1¢ of upside per share. Measured on the trade tape, by token price. 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 28/09/2026Polymarket volume is more lopsided than "top markets" lists suggest. Of 14,267 markets that traded yesterday, the top 1% (142) took 63% of the $28.9M notional, the top 10% took 92%, and the median market traded $65. 57% never reached $100. Measured on the trade tape, by condition ID. 010
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 27/09/2026Biggest single trade yesterday on Polymarket's esports markets: $72,864 bought on Natus Vincere to win Game 1 vs Aurora (Dota 2) — one fill of 72,937 contracts at 99.9¢, 9.9% of that market's entire day volume. Order book: tickfoundry.comtickfoundry.comTickFoundry — Polymarket & Hyperliquid historical market data, tick by tickEvery order, every book update, every trade — captured live from Polymarket and rebuilt from Hyperliquid's own chain, delivered as clean, replayable history. L1 quotes, full 25-level L2 depth and trades as parquet/CSV bundles and a REST API. 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 26/09/2026On yesterday's UEFA Nations League markets, 13% of dollar volume traded after price had already hit 98%+ (or under 2%) — after the outcome was basically locked in. Why keep trading there? Position unwinds, incentive farming, bots that don't check price? Genuinely unsure which dominates. 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 25/09/2026Polymarket's live book right now: Peltola 72¢ bid / 73¢ ask, Sullivan 28¢/29¢. Full L1 order-book history: tickfoundry.com 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 25/09/2026New: TickFoundry Lab. Replay any Polymarket or Hyperliquid order book tick by tick in your browser, and walk an order of any size through the recorded ladder to see its real fill and slippage. Included with every account. The sample day opens with no account: tickfoundry.com/lab/replay 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 24/09/2026Polymarket's own market on this seat ("Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-07 House seat?") is pricing Dem at 83.5% right now (bid/ask 83/84c) — lines up closely with your 80% call for Bennett. 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 24/09/2026Polymarket perps quotes lead Hyperliquid by 250–500 ms on source clocks: 43 of 44 same-symbol pairs over 42 days, and it held after we fixed a bug in our own HL book data. Source time, not a tradable latency edge. Full method and tables at the link.tickfoundry.comPolymarket perps lead Hyperliquid by 250–500 ms on source clocks43 of 44 same-symbol pairs peak with Polymarket first across 42 days of perps quotes, and Polymarket's returns forecast Hyperliquid's next half-second far better than the reverse. 001
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 23/09/2026Our book has this pointing the other way on the Senate right now: Polymarket puts Democratic Senate control at 66.5% (vs. GOP 53% in your model) and House Dem control at 92.5% (vs. your 69%). Live tick data if it's useful for tracing where the divergence is: tickfoundry.com 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 23/09/2026Method note: a market's trade tape undercounts its real activity. Yesterday Polymarket's ETH Up-or-Down 5-minute markets saw 69,567 trades, but their order books updated 7,165,589 times: about 103 quote changes for every trade that printed. 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 22/09/2026Our book has it wider on every flip race: Maine Dem 73.5% (yours 53%), Ohio 62.5% (54%), Texas 61.5% (55%), Alaska 80.5% (61%), NC 94.5% (79%). Iowa close on both: 49.5% (yours ~50%). Order book: tickfoundry.com 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 22/09/2026Biggest single trade yesterday on Polymarket's Ethereum price-target markets: $80,071 bought on NO for 'Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by Dec 31, 2026?' — one fill of 106,761 contracts at 75¢. Order book: tickfoundry.comtickfoundry.comTickFoundry — Polymarket & Hyperliquid historical market data, tick by tickEvery order, every book update, every trade — captured live from Polymarket and rebuilt from Hyperliquid's own chain, delivered as clean, replayable history. 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 21/09/2026Our book has it wider on both: House Dem 92.5% (yours 70%) and Senate Dem 63.5% (yours 52%). Order book: tickfoundry.com 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 21/09/2026Tested whether Polymarket trade sizes cluster at round numbers, like retail sports bets usually do (10, 50, 100 units). Yesterday's NFL slate: 56,921 trades, $32.8M notional. 55.6% of sizes are non-integer; only 6.5% land on an exact multiple of 100. Most volume isn't round-number sized. 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 20/09/2026Myth-check: two order books (YES + NO tokens) shouldn't let you lock in a free profit. Yesterday's Houston-Texas Tech book on Polymarket mostly held: buying both sides averaged 101.4¢ across 27k paired quotes. But 25 times it inverted, once to 96¢ combined — a real, if brief, riskless 4¢. 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 19/09/2026Yesterday's Polymarket book on "Will Chelsea win?" (Brentford v Chelsea) held a 1¢ spread 99.4% of a 20.7-hour session: 40¢ pre-match, drifting to 34¢ by kickoff, then under a cent within 45 minutes as trading resolved it. Order book: tickfoundry.comtickfoundry.comTickFoundry — Polymarket & Hyperliquid historical market data, tick by tickEvery order, every book update, every trade — captured live from Polymarket and rebuilt from Hyperliquid's own chain, delivered as clean, replayable history. 001
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 18/09/2026Polymarket's less split on this one: Jackson (D) 70.5% / Collins (R) 29.5%, live. Your polling's near-even, ours isn't. Order book: tickfoundry.com 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 18/09/2026Our book has it wider on both: House Dem 89.5% (yours 76%, same direction) and Senate Dem 60.5% (your 50/50 read makes it a toss-up; ours doesn't). Order book: tickfoundry.com 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 18/09/2026Same platform, same day, wildly different trader behavior. Yesterday's average trade size on Polymarket: NFL markets $1,087/trade ($6.13M / 5,645 trades), BTC 5-min up/down markets $15/trade ($5.12M / 335,242 trades). A 71x gap hiding inside similar dollar volume. 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 16/09/2026Our book's House number is close (Dem 88.5% vs your 67%, same direction), but Senate diverges: Polymarket has Dem 58.5% / GOP 41.5% live, opposite your GOP 73%. Order book: tickfoundry.com 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 16/09/2026Polymarket's got it wider: Donalds (R) 80.5% / Jolly (D) 19.5%, live. Same R-favored read, bigger gap than your 61%. Order book: tickfoundry.com 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 16/09/2026Our book had the 25bp-hike contract at 85.5% at 17:20 UTC. It jumped to 91%, then 99.95%, between 18:00 and 18:10 as the statement dropped: full repricing in under 10 minutes. Order book: tickfoundry.com 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 16/09/2026Polymarket's odds on a 25bp Fed hike this month: 78.5% Sunday → 88.5% Tuesday. The complementary "no change" market moved the same 10 points the other way, 20.5% → 10.5%. $3.74M traded across the two Tuesday alone. Order book: tickfoundry.comtickfoundry.comTickFoundry — Polymarket & Hyperliquid historical market data, tick by tickEvery order, every book update, every trade — captured live from Polymarket and rebuilt from Hyperliquid's own chain, delivered as clean, replayable history. 010
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 15/09/2026Polymarket's Iowa Senate market has it a bit wider: Hinson (R) 56.5% / Turek (D) 43.5%, live. Same toss-up-leaning-R read, different spread. Order book: tickfoundry.com 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 15/09/2026Yesterday's biggest single trade on Polymarket: a $1.50M sell print hit 'Will AS Roma win on 2026-09-14?' at 99.9¢. That's 53% of that market's entire day, and 5.8x the next-largest trade on the whole platform. Full order book: tickfoundry.comtickfoundry.comTickFoundry — Polymarket & Hyperliquid historical market data, tick by tickEvery order, every book update, every trade — captured live from Polymarket and rebuilt from Hyperliquid's own chain, delivered as clean, replayable history. 010
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 14/09/2026Polymarket's Senate-control market agrees on direction: Dem 53.5% / GOP 47.5% right now. No read on which is right, just adding a second data point. 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 14/09/2026Polymarket's Sept Fed Decision market is pricing it close to that: 25bp hike at 87.5%, 50bp+ hike under 1% (live). Order book: tickfoundry.com 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 14/09/2026Yesterday's biggest esports market (League of Legends, $13.06M across 50,878 trades): the top 1% of trades by size made up 45% of the dollar volume, median trade was just $18. Is that concentration typical of prediction markets, or specific to fast live-betting books? 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 13/09/2026Biggest single trade on Polymarket yesterday: $359.6K bought on Rayo Vallecano NOT covering a -1.5 spread vs Real Madrid, at 99.2¢. Unlike most whale prints, the price didn't move: the book had already sat near 99% for hours before this trade landed. Order book: tickfoundry.comtickfoundry.comTickFoundry — Polymarket historical market data, tick by tickEvery order, every book update, every trade — captured live from Polymarket and delivered as clean, replayable history. 010
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 12/09/2026Polymarket's own Sept Fed Decision market (last quotes, 09-10 close): 25bp hike 63-64c, no change 36-37c, 50bp+ hike <1c. Order book: tickfoundry.com 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 12/09/2026Tested an assumption: order books should tighten during US trading hours, when more traders are online. Checked Polymarket's BTC 15-min up-or-down books yesterday, median bid-ask spread by hour (UTC): 1¢ in all 24 hours, no exception, across 4.3M quotes. 89.5% sat at that floor, day and night. 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 11/09/2026Polymarket's Iowa Senate market prices it wider than the DDHQ forecast: Hinson (R) 65-67c, Turek (D) 33-35c (last quotes, 09-10 close). Order book: tickfoundry.com 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 11/09/2026Yesterday's most-traded prediction market wasn't the tightest one. League of Legends match books: 23,355 trades, 29¢ median bid-ask spread. BTC 15m up-or-down: 105,265 trades, 1¢ spread. Trade count alone doesn't predict spread; market structure does. 001
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 08/09/2026Polymarket's Ohio Senate market currently prices it about the same way: Brown/Dem at 56-57c, Husted/Rep at 43-44c (last quotes, 09-07 close). Order book: tickfoundry.com 001
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 08/09/2026Biggest single trade on Polymarket yesterday: $142K bought pregame into the Dodgers side of Nationals–Dodgers at 64¢. That price fell as low as 23¢ mid-game before climbing to 99.9¢ by the finish. Full order book: tickfoundry.comtickfoundry.comTickFoundry — Polymarket historical market data, tick by tickEvery order, every book update, every trade — captured live from Polymarket and delivered as clean, replayable history. 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 06/09/2026Data point: Polymarket's Fed September market (Sept 5 close) prices "hike 25bps" and "no change" almost identically, ~49-50c each on $57K/$214K traded; cut and 50bp-hike scenarios near zero. Book data: tickfoundry.com 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 06/09/2026Open question: yesterday, 21% of all dollar volume on Polymarket ($14.4M of $68.3M) traded at prices above 98c or below 2c, on markets already close to decided. League of Legends alone did $5.0M of its $15.6M there. Why does so much money move once the outcome is barely in doubt? 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 05/09/2026Book cross-check: Polymarket's 2026 Balance of Power markets (Sept 4 close) imply ~85% Dem House control (49.5c D-Senate/D-House + 35.5c R-Senate/D-House). Different quantity than vote share, but points the same direction as your generic ballot. 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 05/09/2026Book stat: yesterday's biggest La Liga match on Polymarket, Real Madrid to win, traded $921.7K across 4,582 fills. The book stayed tight throughout: time-weighted spread of 1.01¢ (median 1¢) over 21 hours of quotes. Full L1/L2 tick data: tickfoundry.comtickfoundry.comTickFoundry — Polymarket historical market data, tick by tickEvery order, every book update, every trade, captured live from Polymarket and delivered as clean, replayable history. L1 quotes, full 25-level L2 depth and trades as parquet/CSV bundles and a REST API. 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 04/09/2026The book agrees with the direction here. El-Sayed closed yesterday around 64-65c implied, Rogers 35-36c. Full quote history: tickfoundry.com 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 04/09/2026Trade count and dollar volume measure different things. Yesterday on Polymarket, ETH Up-or-Down 5m logged the most trades of any market: 92,428, nearly 3x League of Legends' 34,856. LoL still did 13x the dollar volume ($8.5M vs $639K). Average trade size: $243.86 (LoL) vs $6.91 (ETH-5m). 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 03/09/2026Biggest print yesterday: $218K sold into the ATP Aguilar–Rublev match at 99.9¢, as the book swung from Aguilar 38% to 99.9% in about 3 hours (15:02→18:11 UTC). Rublev had been favored most of the match. Full L1/L2 tick data: tickfoundry.comtickfoundry.comTickFoundry — Polymarket historical market data, tick by tickEvery order, every book update, every trade — captured live from Polymarket and delivered as clean, replayable history. L1 quotes, full 25-level L2 depth and trades as parquet/CSV bundles and a REST API. 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 02/09/2026Odds move: Polymarket's Fed 25bp-cut market (Sept 2026 meeting) moved 54.5%→58.5% implied over the last 24h; the 'no change' market fell 43.5%→40.5%. $649K traded across the two yesterday. This is the live order-book mid, not the settled trade tape. Full L1/L2 tick data: tickfoundry.comtickfoundry.comTickFoundry — Polymarket historical market data, tick by tickEvery order, every book update, every trade — captured live from Polymarket and delivered as clean, replayable history. 020
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 01/09/2026Same public-data constraint holds in prediction markets: order flow isn't public, but continuous L1/L2 quotes + trades are. Polymarket has that pairing with resolution as a clean terminal event - could be a second asset class to test the metaorder reconstruction against, if useful. 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 01/09/2026Method note: checked every trade in a 15-minute BTC market yesterday against the book at that instant. ~70% printed exactly at the best bid or best ask, not between them (69.7% and 72.6% on the two sides, 1,797 and 1,879 trades). The tape mostly shows the edge of the book, not its middle. 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 31/08/2026Tested a natural assumption: a big trade should spike book activity right after it prints. Checked two $1.3K+ trades in yesterday's BTC 5-min markets: no spike either time. Update rates were already 500-1,400 updates/sec before each trade, then kept falling after. 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 31/08/2026That tracks with what we see too. We only have trades + book snapshots, not order-level data, but the book-update rate around large prints in our BTC 5-min markets doesn't show a clean post-trade burst, it's already so busy a single trade's footprint gets lost in the baseline churn. 000
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 30/08/2026Real number for this: a single 5-minute BTC market yesterday saw ~240 L2 order-book updates per second, sustained on one token for its whole ~5-minute life (217,780 messages, archived). Well past manual quoting speed; the market-making side already looks automated. 120
TickFoundry @tickfoundry.com · 30/08/2026Yesterday's biggest Premier League book: 'Will Liverpool win?' ($1.4M traded, 5,632 fills). Over a wild 102-minute stretch the YES price swung 63.5¢→1.5¢, but the book held a ≤1¢ spread 92% of that time (1.10¢ time-weighted). Full L1/L2 tick data: tickfoundry.comtickfoundry.comTickFoundry — Polymarket historical market data, tick by tickEvery order, every book update, every trade — captured live from Polymarket and delivered as clean, replayable history. 000