Sign in

thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social

@thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social
183 followers 131 following 4.3K posts
PostsRepliesMedia
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 14h
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 19h
NYT/Siena very reputable. Four weeks left for Daddy to wittingly break the back of his dead end following…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 19h
The S&P keeps 15 cents of every dollar. The guy who made the product keeps the receipt…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 19h
Nvidia is eating everyone's lunch and billing them for the plate…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 19h
When one sector is 40% of the index, it's not a sector anymore. It's the landlord. And Real Estate is the tenant…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 19h
Rerun : Profits outrun paychecks, often via lean hiring and automation. ~90% of stocks are owned by the top 10%. K-shaped economy: shareholders win, wage earners don't…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 19h
This is a "worth a look" signal, not a "buy now" signal. If financials are a small slice of your portfolio, or you mostly own tech-heavy funds, it's a reasonable reminder that other sectors are priced very differently. Before acting, it's worth asking why the market is discounting them…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 19h
This isn't a signal to dump tech or chase the laggards. It's a reminder to check whether you've let a handful of giant stocks become most of your portfolio without meaning to…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 22h
Relax. Q2 2027 estimates will be revised up eight times before Q2 2027 ever shows up, then beaten by 'a record 78%' of companies…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 22h
Break out the champagne, but not too much, it costs $4.46 a gallon…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 22h
Down from the peak is not the same as back to normal. Drivers don't fill up on the derivative…
010
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 22h
More deficit…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 22h
The S&P 500 is 493 skeletons in a trench coat with Nvidia's face on top… 🤡🤡🤡
010
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
The bad news for wage earners : Profits flow mainly to shareholders, and households over 55 own a large share of US stocks. Record earnings widen the generational gap. The wealth accrues to people who own assets, not to people earning wages…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Nvidia is worth more than SpaceX, Tesla, and Meta combined. In a gold rush— sell shovels…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
IfAI revenue comes in slower than hoped, the negative-cash period stretches out. Then expect more borrowing, slower buybacks, and investors asking harder questions about whether the spending was worth it…
010
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Day 1: Ban it. Day 10: Not doing it. Day 11: What ban?"
1160
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
TLT is the 'safe' asset— safe from going up…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Ten days from 'let's not send out the diesel' to 'let's not send out the ban…’
110
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
No news is good news…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
On days like today, when yields climb steadily, the Bitcoin correlation is easy to see. Over months, it comes and goes…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
One good day of breadth doesn't make a trend. Several in a row would…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Caution : The AI buildout is expensive. SpaceX will spend an estimated $19.3 billion on capex during the quarter and burn $13.2 billion in cash, and the stock has declined 8% year-to-date even after today's rally…
010
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
MBA's weekly purchase application data and pending home sales will show the damage first. The timing is bad for Republicans as well. Housing affordability lands squarely on the price anxiety already weighing on the midterms, a month before Election Day…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
When rates ran from about 7% up to 8%, existing-home sales fell to their lowest pace since the mid-1990s and purchase applications collapsed. At 7.57%, you're near the top of that range…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
A useful check is to compare RCP with a quality-weighted average like Silver Bulletin or the New York Times. If they agree, the signal is solid. If RCP is noticeably redder, look at which pollsters are driving the gap…
010
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Stocks look cheap compared to their own history. They don't look cheap compared to bonds. And the "E" is a forecast, so if analysts cut their earnings estimates, the P/E rises even if prices don't move…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
That's a V for vigilantes…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
The money makes the aggregate economy look sturdier than it is for anyone under 45. It's a K-shape by age. Spending and markets stay strong, while household formation, homeownership, and economic optimism among younger Americans stagnate…
010
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Breakeven job growth is now zero, so a jobs report of zero is "in line." Lose 50,000 jobs and it's practically a beat…
040
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Tech companies hired like crazy during the pandemic, then spent the next few years undoing it, and now AI is giving them a reason not to hire back…
050
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Aircraft carriers are essential, your kid's asthma inhaler is a lifestyle choice…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Hotel California economy— you can check out any time you like, but nobody's hiring…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Sure, if you measure it in Merde-a-Lago membership fees…
010
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Everybody wants to work. They just don't want to work for you…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
America belongs to those who love it. Not to whoever's fundraising off it this week…
050
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
My call : Fund the gov't by 12/11: Yes Farm bill: No NDAA: Yes FISA 702: Yes College sports bill: No Permitting reform: No CRA/deregulation: No Reconciliation 3.0: No Debt limit hike: No
010
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Jensen had to sell another moto jacket to get through it…
030
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Breadth so narrow it needs a bouncer. Good news: three of the nine are bouncers…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Smile ! You’re on candid camera !
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Finance, prof/biz services and info are high-wage, cyclical jobs. They shrink when firms cut overhead, often ahead of broader layoffs… Health care grows regardless of the cycle. When it carries the month, the headline looks steady while the sensitive parts weaken…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Kev holds in October. This kills the hike talk, but a cut is still a long shot with inflation in charge. 29K jobs + 0.1% wages gives Powell cover to wait, not ease. Market's cheering "no hike," which is a pretty low bar for a party…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
That's everyone else being sicker…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
When the rounded number feels too honest…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Somebody alert the historians…
020
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Your paycheck is now officially a worse investment than a Treasury…
010
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Participation trophy economy…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Futures rip like the Fed just handed out free money. Low bar, high fives…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
A 5% 10-year with green on it is like a hospital chart saying the fever dropped to 103…
000
thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social @thoughtsnprayers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Breadth has been in a bear market since August. The index just hasn't gotten the email yet…
061