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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

This isn't an economy approval or a war approval, this is overall. 31-69 is the worst of any President headed into a midterm. And as he's increasingly "on tilt," refusing to cut losses or change course, and lashing out at an electorate that chastizes him in the midterms, he'll get worse.

Bar chart of an AP-NORC Poll that has Trump's approval 31 to 69, thirty eight points underwater.

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

The most trusted investment in the history of investments is on the brink of losing that status because three successive Republican administrations have cut taxes and because Republicans keep getting us into wars in the middle east that we can't pay for.

One month chart of the ten year note: yield climbing from under 4.70 to 5.12 in rapid leaps

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

Of course airfare has gotten less pleasant. It's also much more affordable. They're nickel-and-diming because the actual ticket is the cheapest it has ever been.

airfare declined from $.32 per mile to less then $.16 per mille since 1980

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

So when I see Stephen Miller, I always think of this guy.

Sinestro, the DC comics antagonist to Green Lantern: red face, abnormally tall forehead and prominent widow's peak.

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

The Rogers Rule: If Fred Rogers wouldn't do it, and Steve Rogers wouldn't do it, you probably shouldn't do it.

Captain America, original Marvel Comics version

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 27/05/2026

One of these things is not like the other! GCB among Latino RVs, Florida is wildly different. While the national average is weaker than 2016, I'm not sure this breakdown is the same, and that's important in Texas. While Florida Latino voters stayed Trumpy, Tejanos have moved away. Bad for Paxton.

Latino RVs GCB: SOuthwest 58 Dem 20 R, Cali 59 dem 22 R, NE 57 Dem 26R, Ariz 53 Dem 25R Texas 54 Dem 28R, Florida 38 Dem 42R.

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

The Westinghouse Rosie is ersatz Rosie. Rockwell's Saturday Evening Post cover is Rosie.

Rockwell's original Rosie the Riveter: blue union suit in front of a US flag, rivet gun on lap, lunchbox reads ROSIE, sandwich in hand.

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

Watch what happens this year, with both diesel and fertilized in supply shock mode.

Bar chart of farm bankruptcies by year, colored us region. Trump I years were high, a notable trough in the Biden year and an increase in the first year of Trump II.

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

From Krugman's substack. Dems knew that Trump would spike inflation, because that's what tariffs do. Independents mostly understood this, too. But Republicans actually believed he'd lower inflation. The shattered expectations go a long way to explain the reaction to the Trump II economy.

Chart showing inflation expectations by party over time. Dems and independents expected higher inflation upon Trump's return but Republican expectation for inflation nosedived: they believed he would lower prices.

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

Antipatriot n. Person who professes nationalism and uses a country's symbols prominently, while disliking and rejecting the people thereof, and the country's political or cultural principles. Ex.:

Trump both hugging and kissing an American flag.

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 25/02/2026

www.theargumentmag.com/p/the-trump-... We're seeing an inversion of the known polling bandwagon effect. Usually, some percentage falsely remember voting for the winner. But the winner's voters having buyer's remorse and retconning that they did not vote for him, that's new. And telling.

Poll result: of respondents who reported voting Trump 2024 immediately after the election and still support him, 97.7% accurately report they voted for him (the rest split between Harris and neither). But of 2024 Trump voters who NO LONGER approve of him, 12.5% now say they voted for Harris, and 11.8% for neither, in 2024.

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 30/01/2026

Compare to Trump's crashing support on immigration. The White Nationalists want fewer Brown people no matter how. Most voters want our peaceful neighbors, with spouses and kids here etc., to be able to stay. In matters of kicking the Other, Trump plays to the cult, as Fascists invariably do.

From YouGov, support for deportation by category. Married to citizen 11%, come as children 17%, with us citizen children 21%, longtime residents with no criminal record 22%, recent arrivals no record 35%, non-violent offender 45%, violent offender 87%. Not sure is mostly around 20%, opposition runs from 72% to 45% for non-offenders and 34 and 5% for nonviolent and violent offenders.

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 29/01/2026

From the Pew poll. His support is crumbling, and manufacturing new news items ("I'm gonna bomb Iran!") isn't going to help the perception.

Pew poll: Trump has leadership skills, 51% against. Trump has mental fitness 52% against. Physical fitness 50% against. Picks good advisors 57% against. Respects democratic values 59% against. Acts ethically 60% against.

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 31/12/2025

For all the advances in technology, this war is teaching us that the First World War hangs there as a cautionary tale. Without air superiority, the ability to concentrate forces and punch through is still minimal. 1/

Map of Ukraine showing Russian-controlled territory in pink, with a black line indicating the LOC Jan 1, 2025. In a year, Russia managed very modest, incremental gains around Pokrovsk and southwest of Pokrovsk, and even tinier gains in Western Luhansk. That's it.

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 22/12/2025

The largest battleship ever built, Yamato, demonstrating that battleships became obsolete with the advent of effective carrier-based aircraft.

Black and white photo of the Yamato, the largest battleship ever built, unrecognizable beneath a column of flame and smoke following attacks from US torpedo bombers in 1945.

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

Median homebuyer is 59. Nobody who bought in the cheap lending era is giving up that rate. So only Boomers stepping down are selling. So supply is low, so prices are high, so only Boomers can afford to buy. We're stuck waiting for a generational exit.

Line chart of median homebuyer. From just over thirty in the '80s, and under 40 after the Great Recession, it has now spiked to 59.

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 29/07/2025

G. Elliot Morris examined party favorability to square the circle of low Dem favorability and the signs of election performance. This far out from elections, party favorability doesn't correlate; in midterms specifically, it's actually a negative correlation. 1/

dot plot and correlation line for party favorability more than a year before a midterm. 1998 through 2022 plotted, scattered. The line of correlation slopes from two thirds of the way up the Y axis to almost down at the X axis

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 24/07/2025

Notwithstanding the MAGA influencer revolt over Epstein, Gallup shows Republicans stand behind Trump like always. Dems down to 2%. Independents fell from almost 50 to 29%! Which drives an overall 37%, barely above his post-Jan 6 lows.

Gallup Trump approval tracker. Republicans flat around 90%, Dems down from about 7% to 2%, but Independents sliding from close to 50 in January, down to 29%, for an overall 37%.

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 24/07/2025

The cure for the contrarian political trend piece is quantitative perspective. It's what you think: he's less underwater with older, white, male voters with less formal education, and he's more underwater with everyone else.

Point and confidence intervals of Trump net approval by demo: less popular with women than men, under thirties way down and over 65s close to even, Black voters way down and Hispanic low, White dead even, education nearly in reverse correlation.

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 24/07/2025

No other President since polling has been underwater this soon after taking office. He's done it twice.

Red line chart showing Trump 47 approval trending down from even to -15, matching Trump 45 at the same interval, and well below Obama and Biden who were above water at the same point

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 23/07/2025

This is the second poll I've seen to this effect. I saw a lot of trend pieces placed by GOP consultants about how the Dems had lost Gen Z ... no. Gen Z isn't going to vote for the Schumerite party. But they won't vote for the Trump party either.

Trump approval over time by age group, 18-29, 30-44, 45-64 and 65 plus. 30-44 and 65 plus are basically level with January, 45-64 down visibly, but 18-29 have absolutely cratered

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 08/05/2025

Any economist will tell you that when a knowledgeable buyer and seller exchange cash for goods, the exchange is neutral. The exchange of value is equal. Trump cannot accept the idea of an even exchange, so he has a delusional idee fixe that somehow, when someone sells you something, you lose.

REPORTER: The ports here in the U.S., the traffic has really slowed and now thousands of dock workers and truck drivers are worried about their jobs.

TRUMP: That means we lose less money… when you say it slowed down, that’s a good thing, not a bad thing.

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 07/05/2025

Both the House and the Senate recognize that vulnerable House members are not going to make cuts that lose them their jobs. They either means borrowing the tax cuts (which the deficit hawks won't swallow) or reducing the tax cuts. Keep fighting, it's working.

Two headlines in a clipping list: "Senate GOP Leaders Say House Isn't Cutting Enough" and "House GOP Eyes Scaled Back Tax Cut"

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 29/04/2025

In any discussion of cost of living, this is the biggest wedge of the pie. We're in a national housing crisis. In 1967, houses were about 4x income. Last year, home prices were 6x income. High COL areas are worse. The Bay Area it's about 15x.

Line graphs 1967 to present plotting median income against median hope price, both inflation adjusted. MI starts at about $50k and barely slopes up. Home prices start under $200k and peak over $450k before a recent pullback.

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 29/04/2025

They say the first step to dealing with your problem is admitting you have one. But Trump never admits error.

Trump post: "The Polls from the Fake News are, like the News itself, FAKE! We are doing GREAT, better than ever before."

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 29/04/2025

The truth behind the low approval ratings is that his strong support is 23% of his low-forties approval, but of his high fifties disapproval? 45% is fuck you, worst President ever, get impeached and go to prison you treasonous Orange felon.

bar chart showing grades for Trump's first 100 days: A 23%, B 17%, C 8%, D 7%, F 45%

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 28/04/2025

Hmmm. I think he might be upset about his public polling.

Trump truth social post: "Great Pollster John McLaughlin, one of the most highly respected in the industry, has just stated that The Failing New York Times Poll, and the ABC/Washington Post Poll, about a person named DONALD J. TRUMP, ME, are FAKE POLLS FROM FAKE NEWS ORGANIZATIONS. The New York Times has only 37% Trump 2024 voters, and the ABC/Washington Post Poll has only 34% Trump Voters, unheard of numbers unless looking for a negative result, which they are. These people should be investigated for ELECTION FRAUD, and add in the FoxNews Pollster while you’re at it. They are Negative Criminals who apologize to their subscribers and readers after I WIN ELECTIONS BIG, much bigger than their polls showed I would win, loose a lot of credibility, and then go on cheating and lying for the next cycle, only worse. They suffer from Trump Derangement Syndrome, and there is nothing that anyone, or anything, can do about it. THEY ARE SICK, almost only write negative stories about me no matter how well I am doing (99.9% at the Border, BEST NUMBER EVER!), AND ARE TRULY THE ENEMY OF THE PEOPLE! I wish them well, but will continue to fight to, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!"

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 28/04/2025

So some folks are describing this as things "all going wrong" at the "liberation day" tariff announcement. Mentally lay a ruler on those lines. Do they look like the slope kinks? Or is this basically a linear progression for Captain Chaos?

NYT approval poll tracker showing approval exceeping disapproval 50-46 at inauguration, deteriorating and crossing in March, to a significant disapproval-over-approval at present.

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

Trump has slid with every age group, but has absolutely collapsed with people under 30.

Arrow plots of movement by age group, Trump approval first 100 days. 65+ from +4 to -7. 45-64 from +6 to -1 (smallest movement). 30-44 -3 to -14. 18-29, -4 to -27, a 23-point move.

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 24/04/2025

Arom Alan Abramowitz. This is a simple linear regression, it's so blunt I can't even say it's wrong -- it's simply one relationship, without taking anything individual into account. A few things about this: 1/

Simple matrix predicting seat changes based on generic congressional ballot, -13 for Republicans at a tied GCB, and 15 in the Senate, up to -39 in the House and -9 Senate at -10

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 23/04/2025

So he's approximately as unpopular as the first time, which marks the extreme of unpopularity in a first year in office, since approval polling has been kept.

line graphs showing the approval in the first years of Presidencies from Reagan to Trump. Trump current term is lower at this point than any other President, excepting his own prior term. Notably, Clinton slumped early, and both Bushes jumped several months in, but the two Trump terms mark the absolute bottom

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 23/04/2025

Fools like Newsom don't want to talk about the rule of law. But shining a light on the lawless atrocities of his war on non-white immigrants has dragged Trump near breakeven on his single strongest issue. Ignore the triangulators! Keep fighting, it's working.

Line graphs of Trump approval overall and on issues. All trend downward, all underwater except immigration, which is almost at breakeven. Economy (-9.9), trade (-15.3) and inflation/ cost of living (-21.8) are deeply underwater, with the average -7.7.

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 23/04/2025

This is about power. If Trump wanted to pull a Jackson and tell SCOTUS to go kick rocks, he'd need the public behind him. He does not have it.

Two bar graphs: Trump has to follow court rulings (78 for, 19 against) and only 9 of those 19 say he can ignore a SCOTUS ruling.

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 23/04/2025

Pew marks the far end of the range, but it's not an outlier. It's close to some others. Trump is now on average firmly in the lower forties.

Three bar graphs. Trump approval (59/40 against) tariffs (59/39 against) and cuts to federal agencies (55/44 against)

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 23/04/2025

The FT published a tryptich of charts. In other crises, fixed income was the safe port in the storm. In other crises, the dollar is strong, allowing American consumers to buy more goods and services. In this self-inflicted crisis, both moved the other way.

Tryptich of line graphs comparing the Trump tariffs to the global financial crisis and COVID. Stocks were down in all three. But in Covid and the GFC, bond yields fell and the dollar strenghtened. In this crisis, bond yields jumped as US assets were adjudged more risky, and the dollar weakened, sapping the US public's buying power.

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 22/04/2025

1. the swing from 2024 is pretty uniform, a little more for low income folks. 2. Partisanship is a hell of a drug.

Bar charts from Gallup economic survey. % that say personal financial situation getting worse, 2024 v. 2025, up to 53 from 47. Similar swings by income, stock ownership, and for independents. But partisan bias is huge. Republicans, down from 68 to 28. Dems, up from 21 to 76.

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 22/04/2025

Anyone who thinks the politics of the rule of law hurt Dems is wrong. There is very, very broad agreement that the President has to obey the courts.

Bar chart showing that 83% of adults, and 73% of Republicans, agree that the President should obey court orders even when he disagrees with them.

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 21/04/2025

The bear is coming closer. S&P bear level is around 4900. It's around 5100 now.

Grizzly bear stands on all fours, roaring and baring its teeth.

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 21/04/2025

Down almost 1100 by noon. It's not a bear yet, but you can see it from here.

Dow Jones day chart showing steady decline, down almost 1100 by Noon

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 21/04/2025

This is before earnings are released. The market is anticipating that earnings underperform.

Tesla YTD stock chart showing steep decline to current $224, approximately matching recent lows

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Thomas (he/him) @thomas--72.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

Don't let the headlines undersell this. Every other President in the history of approval polling was comfortably above 50% in the first 90 days. Only Trump has been under 50%, and has been in both terms.

first quarter polling of every president since Ike. Kennedy at 74% leads. Clinton 1993 at 55% marks the bottom for non-Trump presidents. Trump's current popularity is below same time popularity for every other president, but above his own first term.

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