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Thijs Niks

@thijs.niks.nu
474 followers 876 following 158 posts

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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 08/09/2026
And the doc has a lot more detail bsky.app/profile/thij...
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 08/09/2026
This is neat! railmapper.net alignment unfortunately isn’t nearly precisely enough to use it, but it would be amazing to find a way to get a timetable generated
railmapper.net
Rail Mapper
Design and analyze high speed rail networks
030
Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 08/09/2026
I wrote some more about the project here: bsky.app/profile/thij... Happy to chat about it if helpful
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 08/09/2026
I have a new version running locally that uses the Nominatim Reverse Geocoding API, but haven’t had the time yet to release it. nominatim.org/api/Reverse/ The new version will also show the map, population density, and elevation.
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 08/09/2026
Hm, I need to have a look at that. It should work for lower speeds, if you also adjust the other parameters though (which is the tricky part). The Excel export gives you a fully functional model to further tweak btw.
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 05/11/2025
240 BRL or USD?
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 05/11/2025
Nice! That’s great to know
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 14/10/2025
I should probably add it
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 14/10/2025
My own version of a Midwest network looks a bit different railmapper.net/project/midw...
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 14/10/2025
Here I used the GPS coordinates and the tool automatically looked up population within 30km (which is much faster than having to manually look up metro population numbers)
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 13/10/2025
bsky.app/profile/thij...
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 13/10/2025
I quickly threw the ChatGPT Midwest proposal in railmapper.net and ridership is decent at 27,000 per rail-km (2.5x Spain). The economic viability stands or falls (as always) with the construction cost assumption. With ChatGPT’s assumed $21.5m per kilometer, you get a manageable -7% loss margin.
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 13/10/2025
You can use the -1.3 travel time elasticity to incorporate slower lines into a high speed model by artificially increasing their length: pedestrianobservations.com/2022/06/05/i... So (150 kmh / 300 kmh)^-1.3 = 2.5 times Which means that the 72km Rennes-Saint Malo line becomes 180km. Etc.
calibration.railmapper.pages.dev
Rail Mapper
Design and analyze high speed rail networks
130
Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 13/10/2025
Thanks! The default parameters assume the metro population is being used, but you can fully configure those things (though that’s exceedingly tricky). If you put in gps coordinates, it will automatically pull the population within 30km. More details here: docs.google.com/document/d/1...
docs.google.com
Rail Mapper — Modeling High Speed Rail Networks Anywhere in the World
Rail Mapper — Modeling High Speed Rail Networks Anywhere in the World Thijs Niks, August 2025. Email me at thijs@niks.nu or find me on Twitter and BlueSky. Introduction This is an overview of how Rail...
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 29/09/2025
I still need to do another attempt at validating the demand constant. Arguably it should be closer to 100k than 200k, putting Indian ridership in the neighborhood of 5b
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 29/09/2025
India is looking good (and indeed why I had to fix the performance issues): railmapper.net/project/indi...
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 28/09/2025
I fixed the performance problem btw. Should no longer freeze with larger networks.
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 07/09/2025
Yeah, fair enough. The default is Spanish levels ($25m). This route is probably $75m, if I had to guess.
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 07/09/2025
Very nice! I do assume the construction costs per kilometer are set fairly low, given the loss margin is small?
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 04/09/2025
I don't know yet why orphaned routes are created in the first place, but I have put in safeguards to delete them when they happen so it should no longer crash the project. Let me know if you still run into this issue
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 04/09/2025
bsky.app/profile/jtd....
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 03/09/2025
You can adjust the calibration constant on the config page to be somewhere in between the 20k international and 200k domestic it is by default railmapper.net/project/late...
railmapper.net
Rail Mapper
Design and analyze high speed rail networks
000
Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 03/09/2025
The EU border crossings perform very poorly, but Singapore/Malaysia may have more families living on both sides of the border?
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 02/09/2025
You’re welcome! You can build a lot of rail lines if your construction costs are low (just ask the French and Spanish). California, though, builds at $125m per kilometer: www.latimes.com/california/s... You can change your costs on the config page: railmapper.net/project/late...
latimes.com
Despite some progress, state's high-speed rail is $100 billion short and many years from reality
California's high-speed rail is a decade off-schedule and is expected to cost $100 billion more than initially planned.
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 02/09/2025
bsky.app/profile/beyo...
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 02/09/2025
bsky.app/profile/jrur...
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 02/09/2025
bsky.app/profile/dawe...
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 02/09/2025
It has been great to see what people are already using it for: bsky.app/profile/nilo...
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 02/09/2025
Let me know if you have any questions or suggestions. Either put it as a comment in the document, reply to me on Twitter, or email me docs.google.com/document/d/1...
docs.google.com
Rail Mapper — Modeling High Speed Rail Networks Anywhere in the World
Rail Mapper — Modeling High Speed Rail Networks Anywhere in the World Thijs Niks, August 2025. Email me at thijs@niks.nu or find me on Twitter and BlueSky. Introduction This is an overview of how Rail...
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 02/09/2025
And thank you to @cloudflare.social / @eastdakota.com for the free hosting on their Pages service! pages.cloudflare.com
pages.cloudflare.com
Cloudflare Pages
Build your next application with Cloudflare Pages
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 02/09/2025
I’m also grateful to @tomforth.co.uk for maintaining the free Population Around A Point tool and API, which makes using the Global Human Settlement Layer population data very easy. tomforth.co.uk/circlepopula... human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu/about.php
tomforth.co.uk
Population around a point
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 02/09/2025
Huge thank you to @alonlevy.bsky.social for publishing their work and patiently answering some of my questions. You can read their take on Rail Mapper here: pedestrianobservations.com/2025/08/31/h... bsky.app/profile/alon...
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 02/09/2025
I wouldn’t have been able to make this without the new wave of AI coding tools, which make side projects like this much more doable. The vibe coding future is awesome!
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 02/09/2025
The model is simplified and small changes in the parameters have a large impact on the results. I’m still validating some variables. Especially the calibration constant is likely to be revised downwards, which will reduce the ridership estimates for all networks.
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 02/09/2025
You can read more about how Rail Mapper works in this document: docs.google.com/document/d/1... Feel free to leave comments! (I do recommend reading it in the mobile app or on the desktop, as images are embarrassingly low quality on mobile web)
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 02/09/2025
By default, the tool includes a dozen example networks to give an idea of how it works. Take a look at for example: France railmapper.net/project/fran... US northeast railmapper.net/project/nort... Indonesia railmapper.net/project/indo... India railmapper.net/project/indi...
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 02/09/2025
The Rail Mapper tool I built makes it easy to create your own high speed rail network and configure things like construction costs & train capacity. I hope more discussions will be grounded in reality by making these calculations more accessible. railmapper.net
railmapper.net
Rail Mapper
Design and analyze high speed rail networks
120
Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 02/09/2025
These calculations are simple enough that you can do them in a spreadsheet. pedestrianobservations.com/2021/04/25/s...
pedestrianobservations.com
Sanity-Checking My HSR Ridership Model
In previous posts about modeling high-speed rail ridership, I used a gravity model for the estimation. While poking around with spreadsheets, I figured out that a good way to sanity-check the model…
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 02/09/2025
Levy basically applies the same approach governments and companies use to model infrastructure demand. At its core, transport demand is based on how large each city is and how far apart they are. pedestrianobservations.com/2020/02/13/m...
pedestrianobservations.com
Metcalfe’s Law for High-Speed Rail
I wrote a Twitter thread about high-speed rail in the United States that I’d like to expand to a full post, because it illustrates a key network design principle. It comes from Metcalfe&#8217…
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 02/09/2025
A few people, like @alonlevy.bsky.social, take a different approach and try to ground their high speed rail proposals in the reality of usage and costs. Like their plan for the United States: pedestrianobservations.com/2021/03/22/h...
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 02/09/2025
In the English-speaking world especially, this high speed rail investment discussion often devolves into ideological battles where supporters and detractors have dug themselves in regardless of the merits of the proposals.
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 02/09/2025
I’m convinced we should have more of them, because it’s the most convenient transport option between cities which are 500 to 1000km apart. But that requires large investments, which means we have to judge the economic and social returns against other things we can do.
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 02/09/2025
I love high speed trains and have used them in France, Germany, Italy, England, China, Japan, United States, and Indonesia!
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 02/09/2025
I built a web tool so anyone can design and evaluate ridership and costs of high speed rail networks anywhere in the world: railmapper.net
railmapper.net
Rail Mapper
Design and analyze high speed rail networks
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 02/09/2025
You can change the minimum route distance and other parameters on the config page btw, if you want to play around with it: railmapper.net/project/nort...
railmapper.net
Rail Mapper
Design and analyze high speed rail networks
000
Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 02/09/2025
You’re welcome! Would love to see any networks you’re building. And let me know if you have more feedback!
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 02/09/2025
The efficiency of linear networks is great!
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 02/09/2025
All distances in the Northwest are under 500km, so the additional distance between Everett/Tacoma and Portland isn’t penalized but Portland does benefit from the increased passenger-kilometers. Hence the higher predicted revenue. railmapper.net/project/nort...
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 02/09/2025
The border adjustment is steep though, with the calibration constant being 20k vs domestic at 200k
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Thijs Niks @thijs.niks.nu · 02/09/2025
(Or maybe you already did and just swapped out Peterborough for Kingston)
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